[Cervical cancer in Bas-Rhin: trend and prediction of the incidence in 2014].
BACKGROUND
In the world, the cervix cancer is the second commonest cancer in women. Its incidence is decreasing but it is still too frequent. The aim of this study was to predict the incidence of cervix cancer among women in the Department of Bas-Rhin.


METHODS
Incidence data were provided by the Bas-Rhin Tumor Registry. The incidence of in situ tumors and invasive cancers was predicted in 2010-2014 by using an age - period - cohort model and a Bayesian approach.


RESULTS
The incidence rates predicted by the model, standardized to the European population, were 99.7 per 10(5)population in 2000-2004 (CI 95%: [82.7-118.5]) and 177.1 per 10(5) population in 2010-2014 (CI 95%: [103.7-288.5]) for in situ and 13.0 per 10(5) population (CI 95%: [9.5-17.2]) in 2000-2004 and 11.1 per 10(5)population (CI 95%: [4.5-22.7]) in 2010-2014 for invasive tumors.


CONCLUSIONS
The decrease of invasive tumors is due to screening. The improvement of the quality of the screening and treatment of in situ tumors would allow the number of incident cases of cervix cancer to decrease.
Eilstein
D
D
Laboratoire d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine de Strasbourg, 11, rue Humann, 67000 Strasbourg. daniel.eilstein@medecine.u-strasbg.fr
Hédelin
G
G
Schaffer
P
P
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D012042:Registries; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*