title: Introduction of lamivudine for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B: expected clinical and economic outcomes based on 4-year clinical trial data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is associated with a significant burden of illness and treatment involves substantial health-care costs. This study estimates clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of lamivudine compared with other treatment scenarios for CHB, from an Australian health-care provider perspective.
  
  
  METHODS
  A two-step modeling approach depicted clinical progression of hepatitis B in hypothetical patient cohorts using three different treatment scenarios: scenario A, lamivudine and alpha-interferon (IFN-alpha) available; scenario B, IFN-alpha available only; and scenario C, no treatment available. Assumptions were based on clinical trials, published studies, a hepatologist's questionnaire and an expert panel follow up. One-year clinical outcomes and costs were estimated using a decision tree, while lifetime costs and outcomes were estimated using available clinical trial data for lamivudine (up to 4 years therapy duration) and a Markov model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The analysis considered only patients with pretreatment elevated alanine aminotransferase levels > or = 2 x upper limit of normal. In the short term, the introduction of lamivudine is expected to result in almost 3.5 times more CHB patients receiving therapy (lamivudine or IFN-alpha) compared to IFN-alpha only (67% compared to 20%, respectively). Hence, scenario A subsequently doubled the seroconversion rate. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $3341 Australian per additional seroconversion. Also, non-seroconverted lamivudine patients are less likely to progress to cirrhosis than those receiving IFN-alpha/no treatment. One-year progression to cirrhosis was estimated at 5.1% with scenario A, compared to 12.2% and 12.7%, scenarios B and C, respectively. From the long-term analysis, lamivudine is expected to increase life expectancy by years and reduce the lifetime risk of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma by 6%, 12% and 12%, respectively. Additionally, the introduction of lamivudine decreases lifetime costs by $548, thus making it a cost-saving and life-extending strategy. In both short- and long-term models, worst case scenarios in sensitivity analyses still associate lamivudine with a favorable cost-effectiveness ratio.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Introduction of lamivudine is expected to improve health outcomes in CHB patients, resulting in overall savings in health-care costs. In this model, compared with IFN-alpha only and no treatment, lamivudine allowed more CHB patients to be treated, increased the seroconversion rate, delayed disease progression and prolonged life expectancy.
authors.affiliation: GlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Crowley
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tognarini
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Desmond
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lees
authors.forename: Gauri
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Saal
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D001315:Australia; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D018450:Disease Progression; D017048:Health Care Costs; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D019259:Lamivudine / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008390:Markov Chains; D018803:Models, Economic; D015233:Models, Statistical
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D019259:Lamivudine