Preoperative parameters for predicting early prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether easily measurable prostate biopsy features could complement Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), or clinical stage in predicting recurrence-free survival after prostatectomy. Information relating preoperative parameters to recurrence-free survival is needed to counsel patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer regarding expectations for postprostatectomy cancer control.


METHODS
The data of a cohort of 588 consecutive prostatectomy patients (median age 61 years, range 39 to 83) with ascertained preoperative data and up to 4 years of postprostatectomy follow-up were analyzed. Bivariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis evaluated preoperative factors (clinical stage, PSA, biopsy Gleason score, greatest percentage of a biopsy core involved by cancer [GPC], number of biopsy cores containing cancer, perineural invasion) to identify those relating significantly to recurrence-free survival. Functional forms of these factors were evaluated to optimize accuracy in predicting cancer control.


RESULTS
The baseline parameters significantly affecting PSA-free survival included PSA level (P <0.01), biopsy Gleason score (P = 0.04), and GPC (P <0.01). Although clinical stage and perineural invasion had a marginal association with PSA-free survival as univariate factors, this association was not independently significant in multivariable analysis. The multivariate Cox model using PSA, Gleason score, and GPC was highly predictive of PSA free-survival (chi-square = 48.2, P = 0.0001). A set of plots representing these data can be used to identify the risk of early postoperative PSA recurrence on the basis of specific preoperative PSA, Gleason score, and GPC values.


CONCLUSIONS
These findings provide a highly significant model and a simple tool for assisting preoperative patient counseling regarding predicted cancer control after radical prostatectomy.
Nelson
Caleb P
CP
Department of Urology, University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Rubin
Mark A
MA
Strawderman
Myla
M
Montie
James E
JE
Sanda
Martin G
MG
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011467:Prostate / Q000473:pathology*; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011468:Prostatectomy; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies
D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen