[A risk analysis by a measles exportation model concerning the FIFA World Cup 2002].
Risk of measles exportation from Japan is of concern regarding the FIFA World Cup 2002 (WC 2002), which will be held in Korea and Japan in June, 2002. During January 1999 through June 2001. the number of reported exportation cases from Japan was 7 to Australia and 22 to the United States. During the same time, a total of 2.13 million and 14.69 million people traveled between Japan-Australia and Japan-US, respectively. Based on an estimated number for travelers during the WC 2002 (420,000-432,000) announced by the Japanese Ministry of Transportation, we estimated the number of travelers for Japan-Australia and Japan-US would be 16,000 and 109,000 respectively. We analyzed the risk of measles exportation to Australia (PAU) and the United States (PUS) regarding travel for the WC2002 by assumption that measles exposure and transmission would be similar with the usual setting: P = 1 - [1 - (reported exported measles/number of travelers)]estimated number of travelers. The risk was estimated as PAU = 0.051 and PUS = 0.15, however, the results could be higher, because the peak of measles usually lies during May through June and exposure of the virus among young population during the soccer watch would be denser. Through immunization to one-year-old Japanese children is highly needed, as well as strengthening of international measles surveillance especially after the WC2002.
Takahashi
Hiroshi
H
Tanaka-Taya
Keiko
K
Arai
Satoru
S
Hasegawa
Ayako
A
Okaba
Nobuhiko
N
D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011338:Probability Theory; D018570:Risk Assessment