title: [A prediction study on the supply of and demand for pharmacists in Japan].
abstract: Recently, the separation between dispensing and prescribing drugs has made rapid progress and the number of pharmacists' jobs at hospitals have increased, which means that pharmacists are contributing more than ever to medical treatment. Thus the relation between the supply of and demand for pharmacists has become a topic in the improvement of pharmacist quality. In this study, we used date on pharmacists including type of job, registration number, etc. to predict the relation between the supply of pharmacists at work and the demand for pharmacists. In addition, we analyzed the working trends of pharmacy pharmacists and predicted the in relation between the supply and demand. Due to progress in the separation of dispensing and prescribing drugs, the supply of pharmacists will nearly equal demand temporarily. However, the supply at work will always exceed demand, and we concluded that no shortage of pharmacists would occur. In addition, after the demand for pharmacists stops increasing, the excess supply of pharmacists will continue to increase. Based on analysis of working trends of pharmacy pharmacists, the in number will increase at the same rate as between 1996 and 1998 (approximately 6000 persons/year). Under this assumption, we concluded that no short-age of pharmacy pharmacists will occur, even if the separation of dispensing and prescribing drugs continues to occur at the rate of 5%/year.
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 1-2-2, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8916, Japan. yamamoto-nobuhiro@mhlw.go.jp
authors.forename: Nobuhiro
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.forename: Mitsuru
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Uchiyama
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010595:Pharmacists / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends