title: A statistical model to predict nonsurvival in congenital diaphragmatic hernia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a predictive model using echocardiographic indices to identify nonsurvivors from survivors in preoperative patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH).
  
  
  METHODS
  Eight cases of CDH, with a mortality rate of 38%, underwent echocardiographic study before surgical repair. Left ventricular mass (LVMASS) using the area-length method of Wyatt et al. and fractional shortening (FS) by M-mode measurements were determined.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We identified a nonlinear nonoverlapping distribution that predicted nonsurvivors from survivors, p=0.04. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated the quantity (LVMASS x FS)(1/2) to be correlated with nonsurvival with a coefficient of determination r(2)=0.55. Comparison of the means of the quantity (LVMASS x FS)(1/2) for the two groups suggested two distinct populations, p=0.04.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The mathematical quantity (LVMASS x FS)(1/2) calculated from echocardiographic measurements obtained preoperatively in babies with CDH may predict nonsurvival despite maximal intervention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Shelley Cypher
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Springer
authors.forename: Dawn
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.forename: Thomas C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Hulsey
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006548:Hernia, Diaphragmatic / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000401:mortality*; D065630:Hernias, Diaphragmatic, Congenital; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D014463:Ultrasonography