title: Adolescents' beliefs about future substance use: a comparison of current users and non-users of cigarettes, alcohol and illicit drugs.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore the expectations of adolescents about their future cigarette, alcohol and illicit drug use. It was hypothesized that differences would be found between current substance users and non-users and that younger children would have less realistic beliefs about their future use than older children.
  
  
  METHODS
  Survey of 7022 pupils (aged 11-16) in 13 non-randomly selected schools from three Local Education Authority areas in Northern England, the Midlands and London, relating to current substance use and beliefs about future use of cigarettes, alcohol and illicit drugs.
  
  
  METHODS
  Respondents were asked confidentially about occasions of cigarette, alcohol and illicit drugs use as well as about their belief about use in the year following the survey.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Substantial differences were found in relation to all substances. Of those children who currently smoked, 73% believed it likely they would be doing so in a year's time. Only 3% of non-smokers believed they would begin to smoke in the year following the survey. Eighty-three per cent of alcohol drinkers believed they would be drinking in a year's time compared with 20% of non-drinkers and 63% of illicit drug users believed in their continued use. Only 3% of non-drug users believed they would initiate use in the year following the survey. More non-smoking girls than boys responded "don't know" when asked about their future beliefs regarding cigarette use (15.6% vs. 11.3%), a position which was reversed for current smokers (15.4% vs. 19.3%). 13.1% of drinkers and 30.7% of non-drinkers did not know if they would be drinking a year after the survey and 23.2% of illicit drug users did not know what their drug using status would be in a year compared to 9.7% of current non-users. Of those who were drinking alcohol, but not using illicit drugs or smoking cigarettes, 33% thought it likely that they would have a problem with either drugs or alcohol at some time in the future compared to 7% of non-drinkers. Seventy-four per cent of children currently using illicit drugs thought it likely they could have a substance abuse problem in the future compared with 8.9% of non-drug users.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on prevalence data from this sample, these results found that non-smokers had unrealistic beliefs about their likelihood of taking up smoking within a year and that many current smokers had equally unrealistic beliefs about giving up the habit. Adolescents had more realistic expectations about future alcohol use. When it came to illicit drug use, adolescents were clear in their beliefs about future use: very few non-users believed they would initiate use whilst current users believed they would continue to use. Many young people were uncertain about future substance use, a position which provides opportunity for drug-education programmes. The hypothesis that younger children would have less realistic beliefs about future use than older children was not supported.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Sutherland
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Shepherd
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D017677:Age Distribution; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000523:psychology*; D001290:Attitude; D002648:Child; D003469:Culture; D004739:England; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000523:psychology*; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000523:psychology*