title: An ecologic study of geographical variation in multiple sclerosis risk in central Sardinia, Italy.
abstract: We carried out an ecological study in the most archaic area of Sardinia to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and to investigate the geographical variation in the prevalence across the 100 administrative communes. To estimate the area-specific prevalence rate, we adopted a Bayesian approach that makes it possible to filter out the random variation from the estimates and to obtain a map that reflects the true geographical variation in MS prevalence. 428 resident cases were identified by the case register, including 69 multiplex families. The overall prevalence was 157 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Bayesian area-specific prevalence ranged from 143 to 262/100,000. The high prevalence and its moderate geographical variation in a genetically homogeneous population, as well as the high number of multiplex families observed in the communes with the highest prevalence, could be interpreted as representing a high susceptibility of the population to MS.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento Scienze Sanitarie Applicate e Psicocomportamentali, Sezione di Statistica Medica e Epidemiologia, Università di Pavia, Italia. cristina.montomoli@unipv.it
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Montomoli
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Allemani
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Solinas
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Motta
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bernardinelli
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Clemente
authors.forename: B S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Murgia
authors.forename: A F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Ticca
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Musu
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Piras
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ferrai
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Caria
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sanna
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Porcu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D017678:Sex Distribution