title: A simple method for estimating age-specific rates from sequential cross sections.
abstract: I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.
authors.affiliation: Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2240, USA. schmertmann@fsu.edu
authors.forename: Carl P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Schmertmann
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D001723:Birth Rate; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D003710:Demography; D004813:Epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D010298:Parity; D012942:Social Sciences