Using animal data to improve prediction of human decompression risk following air-saturation dives.
To plan for any future rescue of personnel in a disabled and pressurized submarine, the US Navy needs a method for predicting risk of decompression sickness under possible scenarios for crew recovery. Such scenarios include direct ascent from compressed air exposures with risks too high for ethical human experiments. Animal data, however, with their extensive range of exposure pressures and incidence of decompression sickness, could improve prediction of high-risk human exposures. Hill equation dose-response models were fit, by using maximum likelihood, to 898 air-saturation, direct-ascent dives from humans, pigs, and rats, both individually and combined. Combining the species allowed estimation of one, more precise Hill equation exponent (steepness parameter), thus increasing the precision associated with human risk predictions. These predictions agreed more closely with the observed data at 2 ATA, compared with a current, more general, US Navy model, although the confidence limits of both models overlapped those of the data. However, the greatest benefit of adding animal data was observed after removal of the highest risk human exposures, requiring the models to extrapolate.
Lillo
R S
RS
Biomedical Research Department, Navy Experimental Diving Unit, Panama City, Florida 32407-7015, USA. lillors@nedu.navsea.navy.mil
Himm
J F
JF
Weathersby
P K
PK
Temple
D J
DJ
Gault
K A
KA
Dromsky
D M
DM
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001835:Body Weight / Q000502:physiology; D003665:Decompression Sickness / Q000503:physiopathology*; D004195:Disease Models, Animal; D004242:Diving / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011312:Pressure; D051381:Rats; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013045:Species Specificity; D013552:Swine