title: Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.
abstract: Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.
authors.affiliation: Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden. henrik.johansson@brand.lth.se
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Johansson
mesh_terms: D000056:Accident Prevention; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003657:Decision Making; D005390:Fires; D007449:Investments; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety / Q000191:economics*