title: Selective use of preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the era of laparoscopic cholecystectomy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The use of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the management of suspected common bile duct (CBD) stones prior to laparoscopic cholecystectomy is common. The associated morbidity can be significant. The present study determines significant predictors of CBD stones and improves the selection of patients for preoperative ERCP.
  
  
  METHODS
  All preoperative ERCP for suspected CBD stones in the year 1998 were studied retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses of a number of clinical, biochemical and radiological variables were carried out to determine the best predictors of CBD stones.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 112 patients had successful preoperative ERCP. Sixty-one per cent of these were negative for stones and the morbidity was 9%. Univariate analysis revealed the following variables as predictors: cholangitis (P = 0.006), abnormal serum bilirubin > or = 3 days (P = 0.002), serum alkaline phosphatase > or = 130 U/L (P = 0.002), deranged liver function tests (P = < 0.001) and CBD diameter > or = 8 mm (P = 0.009) with positive predictive values of 80%, 68%, 49%, 38% and 52%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed the model with the best ability to discriminate for CBD stones (P = 0.0005) was cholangitis, abnormal serum bilirubin for > or = 3 days and CBD diameter > or = 8 mm. The best predictors from this study had a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 27%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predictors of CBD stones are imprecise. Until laparoscopic exploration of CBD becomes widely available, ERCP prior to cholecystectomy will remain popular. The use of stricter selection criteria can reduce the number of negative preoperative ERCP.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, North Shore Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand. nataly@xtra.co.nz
authors.forename: Yogesh
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Nataly
authors.forename: Arend E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Merrie
authors.forename: Ian D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Stewart
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002760:Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde; D017081:Cholecystectomy, Laparoscopic; D005260:Female; D042882:Gallstones / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011300:Preoperative Care; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies