Use of a simple clinical score to predict prognosis of patients with normal or mildly abnormal resting electrocardiographic findings undergoing evaluation for coronary artery disease.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether a simple clinical score, which was shown previously to predict the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients referred for coronary angiography, could predict prognosis in a separate cohort of patients with normal or mildly abnormal findings on their resting electrocardiogram (ECG) who were undergoing noninvasive evaluation for possible CAD.


METHODS
The study group included 2255 symptomatic patients with normal (n=1466) or mildly abnormal (nonspecific ST-T-wave abnormalities; n=789) findings on their resting ECG who were referred for exercise thallium testing between 1989 and 1991. Follow-up was 94% complete at a mean +/- SD duration of 6.9+/-1.5 years. The clinical score, which ranged from 0 (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk), was calculated by awarding 1 point each for male sex, history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, diabetes mellitus, insulin use, and each decade of age older than 40 years.


RESULTS
In each ECG group, the clinical score was a significant predictor of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or late revascularization, considered individually or combined, unadjusted or with adjustment for age. Most patients had a score lower than 5; these patients had an excellent 5-year cardiac survival rate (99.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 98.8% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group). The small subset of patients with a score higher than 5 had a much lower 5-year survival rate (923% for the 8% of patients with normal ECG findings and 86.6% for the 14% of patients with ST-T-wave abnormalities). For patients with a score of 5, the 5-year survival rate was 97.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 95.9% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group.


CONCLUSIONS
In symptomatic patients with known or suspected CAD and normal or mildly abnormal resting ECG findings, this simple, easily computed clinical score is a useful and valid tool to help determine prognosis.
Ho
Kheng-Thye
KT
Division of Cardiovascular Diseases and Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn 55905, USA.
Miller
Todd D
TD
Hodge
David O
DO
Bailey
Kent R
KR
Gibbons
Raymond J
RJ
D000368:Aged; D015906:Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000628:therapy; D016757:Death, Sudden, Cardiac / Q000209:etiology; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000209:etiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis