Stochastic models of some endemic infections.
Stochastic models are established and studied for several endemic infections with demography. Approximations of quasi-stationary distributions and of times to extinction are derived for stochastic versions of SI, SIS, SIR, and SIRS models. The approximations are valid for sufficiently large population sizes. Conditions for validity of the approximations are given for each of the models. These are also conditions for validity of the corresponding deterministic model. It is noted that some deterministic models are unacceptable approximations of the stochastic models for a large range of realistic parameter values.
Nåsell
Ingemar
I
Department of Mathematics, The Royal Institute of Technology, S-100 44, Stockholm, Sweden. ingemar@math.kth.se
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003710:Demography; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D008954:Models, Biological