title: Sample size, confidence, and contingency judgement.
abstract: According to statistical models, the acquisition function of contingency judgement is due to confidence increasing with sample size. According to associative models, the function reflects the accumulation of associative strength on which the judgement is based. Which view is right? Thirty university students assessed the relation between a fictitious medication and a symptom of skin discoloration in conditions that varied sample size (4, 6, 8 or 40 trials) and contingency (delta P = .20, .40, .60 or .80). Confidence was also collected. Contingency judgement was lower for smaller samples, while confidence level correlated inversely with sample size. This dissociation between contingency judgement and confidence contradicts the statistical perspective.
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology, University of Ottawa, 145 Jean-Jacques Lussier, P.O. Box 450, Station A, Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 6N5. mclem078@uottawa.ca
authors.forename: Mélanie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Clément
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mercier
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pastò
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001245:Association Learning; D003463:Cues; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D018401:Sample Size