title: Predicting Ross River virus epidemics from regional weather data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Diseases caused by arboviruses cause extensive mortality and morbidity throughout the world. Weather directly affects the breeding, abundance, and survival of mosquitoes, the principal vector of many arboviruses. The goal of this study was to test whether climate variables could predict with high levels of accuracy (more than 70%) epidemics of one arbovirus, Ross River virus disease.
  
  
  METHODS
  Weather data from two regions in southeastern Australia were matched with Ross River virus disease data for the period 1991 to 1999. Our aim was to develop simple models for the probability of the occurrence of an epidemic in an area in a given year.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Two predictable epidemic patterns emerged, after either high summer rainfalls or high winter rainfalls. A prerequisite relating to host-virus dynamics was lower than average spring rainfall in the preepidemic year. The sensitivity of the model was 96% for Region 1 and 73% for Region 2.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Early warning of weather conditions conducive to outbreaks of Ross River virus disease is possible at the regional level with a high degree of accuracy. Our models may have application as a decision tool for health authorities to use in risk-management planning.
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. rosalie.woodruff@anu.edu.au
authors.forename: Rosalie E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Woodruff
authors.forename: Charles S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Guest
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.forename: Niels
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Becker
authors.forename: Janette
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lindesay
authors.forename: Terence
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Carvan
authors.forename: Kristie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ebi
mesh_terms: D018354:Alphavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012398:Ross River virus; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014887:Weather