Primary neck management among patients with cancer of the oral cavity without clinical nodal metastases: A decision and sensitivity analysis.
BACKGROUND
A standardized neck management strategy for oral cancer patients without clinical nodal metastases remains to be established. Consequently, a decision and sensitivity analysis of two neck management protocols, involving either prophylactic neck dissection or careful observation, was conducted using the Oral Cancer Registry of Kyushu, Japan.


METHODS
We calculated probabilities of subclinical nodal metastases and 5-year survival using the registry data. A two-way sensitive analysis was conducted using the probabilities and parameters of the complete nodal metastasis resection rate (x) and a utility rating that describes the health state induced by dissection (y) compared with the neck condition in a careful-observation group.


RESULTS
We solved the threshold curve for y and x for the expected utility between the two groups. The results showed that prophylactic neck dissection must guarantee a complete resection of subclinical nodal metastases with no disadvantage to health state to be evaluated as equally satisfactory as careful observation.


CONCLUSIONS
Careful observation involving standardized systematic preoperative and postoperative screening of the neck seems preferable to prophylactic neck dissection for oral cancer patients without subclinical nodal metastases.
Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Institute of Industrial Ecological Sciences, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Japan. stkaneko@ncc.go.jp
Satoshi
S
Kaneko
Takesumi
T
Yoshimura
Kunio
K
Ikemura
Kanemitsu
K
Shirasuna
Jingo
J
Kusukawa
Masamichi
M
Ohishi
Ryosuke
R
Shiba
Hajime
H
Sunakawa
Kazuhiro
K
Tominaga
Kazumasa
K
Sugihara
Masanori
M
Shinohara
Takeshi
T
Katsuki
Shigetaka
S
Yanagisawa
Hideo
H
Kurokawa
Tamotsu
T
Mimura
Hisazumi
H
Ikeda
Shigeru
S
Yamabe
Satoru
S
Ozeki
D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003663:Decision Trees; D006801:Humans; D008197:Lymph Node Excision; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D010157:Palatal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D014062:Tongue Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery