Can we reverse the HIV/AIDS pandemic with an expanded response?
HIV/AIDS has reached pandemic proportions, and is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. In 2001, the Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS set out several aims with respect to reducing the effect and spread of HIV/AIDS, and an expanded response in low-income and middle-income countries was initiated. Here we examine the potential effect of the expanded global response based on analyses of epidemiological data, of mathematical models of HIV-1 transmission, and a review of the impact of prevention interventions on risk behaviours. Analyses suggest that if the successes achieved in some countries in prevention of transmission can be expanded to a global scale by 2005, about 29 million new infections could be prevented by 2010.
Futures Group International, Glastonbury, CT, USA. j.stover@tfgi.com
John
J
Stover
Neff
N
Walker
Geoff P
GP
Garnett
Joshua A
JA
Salomon
Karen A
KA
Stanecki
Peter D
PD
Ghys
Nicholas C
NC
Grassly
Roy M
RM
Anderson
Bernhard
B
Schwartländer
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D000328:Adult; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D011634:Public Health / Q000639:trends*