The projected health care burden of Type 2 diabetes in the UK from 2000 to 2060.
OBJECTIVE
To predict the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UK, the trends in the levels of diabetes-related complications, and the associated health care costs for the period 2000-60.


METHODS
An established epidemiological and economic model of the long-term complications and health care costs of Type 2 diabetes was applied to UK population projections from 2000 to 2060. The model was used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, the caseloads and population burden for diabetes-related complications, and annual NHS health care costs for Type 2 diabetes over this time period.


RESULTS
The total UK population will not increase by more than 3% at any time in the next 60 years. However, the population over 30 will increase by a maximum of 11% by 2030. Due to population ageing, in 2036 there will be approximately 20% more cases of Type 2 diabetes than in 2000. Cases of diabetes-related complications will increase rapidly to peak 20-30% above present levels between 2035 and 2045, before showing a modest decline. The cost of health care for patients with Type 2 diabetes rises by up to 25% during this period, but because of reductions in the economically active age groups, the relative economic burden of the disease can be expected to increase by 40-50%.


CONCLUSIONS
In the next 30 years Type 2 diabetes will present a serious clinical and financial challenge to the UK NHS.
York Health Economics Consortium, University of York, Heslington, York, UK. ab13@york.ac.uk
A
A
Bagust
P K
PK
Hopkinson
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Maslove
C J
CJ
Currie
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009017:Morbidity; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D013222:State Medicine / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology