title: Error models for official mortality forecasts.
abstract: "The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models.  We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals.  We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future.  Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year.  For other ages the chances are much less than 95%."
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Alho
authors.forename: B D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Spencer
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D012737:Sex Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Death Rate; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Evaluation Report; Measurement; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Probability; Research Methodology; Sex Factors; Statistical Studies; Studies; United States