title: The five-year predictive validity of each of the seven DSM-IV items for alcohol dependence among alcoholics.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Information about the prognostic implications of a DSM-IV diagnosis of alcohol dependence is important to both clinicians and researchers. In this regard, only limited data are available on the performance of specific diagnostic items.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study reports data gathered with a structured, validated interview with 642 alcohol-dependent men and women from the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). The goals were to evaluate the ability of each of the DSM-IV dependence items to predict the occurrence over the next 5 years of a broad pattern of 27 alcohol-related problems. For comparison, similar data are reported regarding the performance of abuse criteria for 516 additional subjects.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The results revealed that dependence item 3 (use of alcohol in larger amounts) was the only criterion that did not relate significantly to outcome, and indicated that the dependence criteria related relatively similarly to different types of outcomes among alcoholics. No specific combination of diagnostic items stood out in predicting outcome but, rather, the span of items generally performed well.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These data support the potential usefulness of the DSM-IV dependence criteria.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, and the Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, California 92161-2002, USA. mschuckit@ucsd.edu
authors.forename: Marc A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Schuckit
authors.forename: George P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Danko
authors.forename: Tom L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Kelly R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Buckman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy; D002648:Child; D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results