title: An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts.
abstract: "In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida.  We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences.  For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias.  For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%."  This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
authors.forename: S K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shahidullah
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000569:Americas; D015982:Bias; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005431:Florida; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008722:Methods; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Administrative Districts; Age Distribution; Age Factors; Americas; Bias; Comparative Studies; Counties; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Florida; Geographic Factors; Measurement; Methodological Studies; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Studies; United States