title: Financial consequences of changes in health care demands related to tobacco consumption in Mexico: information for policy makers.
abstract: This paper presents the results from a longitudinal study in which the main purpose was to determine the health-care costs and financial consequences of changes in the health care demands related to tobacco consumption in Mexico. Eleven health interventions were selected to conduct this study and four probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile of selected diseases. The costing method was based on the identification of case management costs using the instrumentation and consensus techniques, probabilistic models were designed using the Box-Jenkins technique and allowed us to identify the expected case trends for the 2001-2003 period. The generation of information on case management costs for the selected interventions is a central instrument in the planning of health programs, above all in that which refers to resource allocation by type of demand. On the other hand, the identification of expected cases and the financial consequences allowed us to know the growing trends of the sums required to satisfy health care demands for the period under study. The three types of information are a relevant resource for decision-makers in the production and financing of health services.
authors.affiliation: Health Economics Unit, Research Center on Health Systems, National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Col. Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlán, Cuernavaca, Morelos CP 62508, Mexico. aarredon@insp3.insp.mx
authors.forename: Armando
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arredondo
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Parada
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Carrillo
mesh_terms: D019090:Case Management; D017281:Cost of Illness; D004194:Disease / Q000145:classification / Q000191:economics; D015276:Health Care Rationing; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D011050:Policy Making; D011336:Probability; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology