title: Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States.
abstract: "This paper reviews the two leading methods used to project the number of AIDS cases:  back calculation and extrapolation.  These methods are assessed in light of key features of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of data on the epidemic; they are also assessed in terms of the quality of the projections they yield.  Our analysis shows that both methods have tended to overproject, often by sizable amounts, the number of AIDS cases in the United States....A new method for projecting AIDS cases is proposed that exploits knowledge about the process generating AIDS cases and that incorporates readily available information about rates of new HIV infection.... Relative to the method of extrapolation, this method projects 22,000 fewer new AIDS cases for 1995 (a 36% difference).  This method also projects that intravenous drug users will replace homosexual/bisexual men as the dominant transmission category for AIDS."
authors.forename: D E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Bloom
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Glied
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; D000569:Americas; D019049:Developed Countries; D004194:Disease; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections; D009656:North America; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States; D014777:Virus Diseases
keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome--etiology; Americas; Critique; Developed Countries; Diseases; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Hiv Infections; Measurement; North America; Northern America; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; United States; Viral Diseases