title: Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.
abstract: "A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented.  The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction.  Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."
authors.forename: K G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Manton
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stallard
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Singer
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005544:Forecasting; D006262:Health; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Americas; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Health; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Population Size; Research Methodology; United States