title: Adjustment of provisional mortality series:  the dynamic linear model with structured measurement errors.
abstract: The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series containing common trend and seasonal components.  The model also includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease mortality."
authors.forename: R H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Shumway
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Katzoff
mesh_terms: D002423:Cause of Death; D003710:Demography; D004194:Disease; D006331:Heart Diseases; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design
keywords: Causes Of Death; Data Adjustment; Demographic Factors; Diseases; Error Sources; Heart Diseases; Measurement; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology; World