title: Birth forecasting based on birth order probabilities, with application to U.S. data.
abstract: "A model for birth forecasting based on prediction of the so-called 'birth order probabilities' is constructed.  The relation between this model and recent models of fertility prediction is derived.  Birth forecasts with approximate probability limits for the U.S. for the period 1983-1997 are generated.  The performance of the proposed model in predicting future fertility is tested by fitting time series models to part of the available series (1917-1982) and ultimately generating birth forecasts for the remainder of the period, then comparing these forecasts with the actual data."  The accuracy of the fertility forecasts made are compared with those made by other methods.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Al-osh
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D001722:Birth Order; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005195:Family Relations; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Birth Order; Comparative Studies; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Estimation Technics; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Relationships; Fertility; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Probability; Research Methodology; Statistical Studies; Studies; Time Factors; United States