title: Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states.
abstract: "A common perception among producers (and users) of population projections is that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate forecasts than simple and/or naive techniques.  In this paper we test the validity of that perception by evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of eight commonly used projection techniques drawn from...four categories [trend extrapolation, ratio extrapolation, cohort-component, and structural]. Using data for [U.S.] state population projections from a number of different time periods, we find no evidence that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate or less biased forecasts than simple, naive techniques."
authors.forename: S K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sincich
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D015982:Bias; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D009656:North America; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Bias; Comparative Studies; Critique; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Measurement; Methodological Studies; North America; Northern America; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Studies; United States