title: Methods for national population forecasts:  a review.
abstract: "Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed:  demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes.  In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described.  Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated.  Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally."
authors.forename: K C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Land
mesh_terms: D015331:Cohort Studies; D003710:Demography; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Cohort Analysis; Comparative Studies; Demographic Factors; Estimation Technics; Measurement; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Reliability; Research Methodology; Time Factors; World