title: Predictive model for pain recurrence after posterior fossa surgery for trigeminal neuralgia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Surgical exploration of the posterior fossa is the definitive treatment for trigeminal neuralgia refractory to medication, but predictors of its success in effecting long-term pain relief have not been established.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a model that allows stratification of patients' risk of postoperative recurrence of pain based on pretreatment factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  We reviewed the records of 420 consecutive patients who underwent posterior fossa exploration by one of us (C.B.W.) for the treatment of idiopathic trigeminal neuralgia. The primary outcome measure was recurrence of trigeminal pain. The predictive value of preoperative and intraoperative factors was evaluated. Multivariate analysis revealed the statistically significant predictors of pain recurrence, permitting creation of a risk model for recurrence of pain.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After surgery, trigeminal pain had lessened in 98% of patients and completely resolved in 87%. There were no perioperative deaths. After a mean follow-up of 56.3 months, 93% of patients reported significant pain improvement and 72% continued to have no pain. The estimated likelihood of pain recurrence at 8 years was 34%. Significant predictors of eventual recurrence of pain were age younger than 53 years at the time of surgery, symptoms lasting longer than 11(1/2) years, female sex, and pain on the left side in men. These factors were weighted and incorporated into a risk model that revealed 4-year pain-free survival of 89% +/- 4% for the low-risk group, 80% +/- 4% for the moderate-risk group, and 58% +/- 6% for the high-risk group (data are mean +/- SD).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We developed a predictive model that stratifies the risk for eventual recurrence of pain after posterior fossa exploration for trigeminal neuralgia. This information may be useful in counseling patients regarding treatment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurological Surgery, The University of California-San Francisco, 505 Parnassus St, Room M787, Campus Box 0112, San Francisco, CA 94143-0112, USA. theodop@neurosurg.ucsf.edu
authors.forename: Philip V
authors.initials: PV
authors.lastname: Theodosopoulos
authors.forename: Elysa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Marco
authors.forename: Carol
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Applebury
authors.forename: Kathleen R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Lamborn
authors.forename: Charles B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Wilson
mesh_terms: D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014277:Trigeminal Neuralgia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000601:surgery*