title: Stochastic population forecasts and their uses.
abstract: "The properties and uses of stochastic forecasts are discussed here.  For linear stochastic projections, we show how the computation of forecast moments and the statistical distribution of forecasts depend on the multiplicative and autoregressive structure of the dynamics.  Both scalar and vector projection methods are discussed, and their similarities are explored. Next we discuss the uses of stochastic forecasts, arguing that it is important to relate forecasts to the specific decision-making criteria of particular forecast users.  The example of [the U.S. system of] Social Security is used to show how a dynamic programming approach may be used to explore alternative decisions in a probabilistic context."
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tuljapurkar
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D019049:Developed Countries; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Mathematical Model; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; United States