title: Stochastic demographic forecasting.
abstract: "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions.  The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."
authors.forename: R D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D003858:Dependency, Psychological; D019049:Developed Countries; D004467:Economics; D005544:Forecasting; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008136:Longevity; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Americas; Demographic Factors; Dependency Burden; Developed Countries; Economic Factors; Estimation Technics; Length Of Life; Life Expectancy; Mathematical Model; Microeconomic Factors; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Probability; Research Methodology; Statistical Studies; Studies; United States