title: The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa:  short- and long-term projections.
abstract: "This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections.... The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences.  This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes.  These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted.  Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bos
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Bulatao
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; D000349:Africa; D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D004194:Disease; D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections; D008722:Methods; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014777:Virus Diseases
keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Diseases; Estimation Technics; Hiv Infections; Methodological Studies; Mortality; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Viral Diseases