An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts.
"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida.  We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences.  For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias.  For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%."  This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Smith
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Shahidullah
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D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000569:Americas; D015982:Bias; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005431:Florida; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008722:Methods; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
Administrative Districts; Age Distribution; Age Factors; Americas; Bias; Comparative Studies; Counties; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Florida; Geographic Factors; Measurement; Methodological Studies; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Studies; United States