Risk stratification scores for predicting mortality in coronary artery bypass surgery.
BACKGROUND
Four risk-stratification scores (RSSs - Euro, French, CCS/Higgins, Parsonnet) were tested as predictors of mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery.


METHODS
From March to April 2000, the perioperative courses of 245 consecutive CABG patients were compared to the predictions according to the RSSs. Sensitivity and specificity were determined with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves.


RESULTS
CCS/Higgins uses the most easily acquired patient data, and rates emergency conditions as high-risk. Euro focuses on advanced age and septal rupture. French uses the smallest number of patient parameters and rates rare critical situations as high-risk. Parsonnet is partially based on the physician's subjective assessment of a "catastrophic state," making the scoring arbitrary. All RSSs gave similar (not significant) areas under the ROC curves regarding mortality (Euro 0.826 +/- 0.080, French 0.783 +/- 0.094, CCS/Higgins 0.820 +/- 0.060, Parsonnet 0.831 +/- 0.042). Predicted risk levels for the 11 patients who died differed between the RSSs--Higgins placed these patients in 3 of 5 risk levels with ascending distribution. The other RSSs placed these patients in the highest risk level except for one and two patients, respectively, who were placed in the lowest Euro and French risk level. Euro and Parsonnet placed about half of all patients with non-lethal outcome in the highest risk level.


CONCLUSIONS
All RSSs satisfactorily estimated the group risk for mortality. No RSS expressed sufficient validity to predict individuals with lethal outcome. In clinical use, CCS/Higgins proved the most practicable.
Baretti
R
R
Deutsches Herzzentrum Berlin, Germany. baretii@dhzb.de
Pannek
N
N
Knecht
J-P
JP
Krabatsch
T
T
Hübler
S
S
Hetzer
R
R
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality*; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures; D004632:Emergency Medical Services; D005260:Female; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity