Small area demographic forecasts.
The author reviews the literature on small area forecasting with a focus on the work of Robert Schmitt.  He finds that "the accuracy of small area forecasts has not increased appreciably over the past four decades, despite methodological progress, increased knowledge gained from the evaluation of forecasts, and more widely available and rich data.  A comment made by Schmitt 40 years ago is still largely true today, 'No method is yet known for forecasting the population of small urban areas with a high degree of accuracy'...."
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D003710:Demography; D005544:Forecasting; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014505:Urban Population
Area Analysis; Data Quality; Demographic Factors; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Literature Review; Measurement; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Forecast; Urban Population; World