Simple tools for forecasts of population ageing in developed countries based on extrapolations of human mortality, fertility and migration.
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.
Stauffer
Dietrich
D
Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Köln, Germany. stauffer@thp.uni-koeln.de
D000375:Aging; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics