title: Simple tools for forecasts of population ageing in developed countries based on extrapolations of human mortality, fertility and migration.
abstract: Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Köln, Germany. stauffer@thp.uni-koeln.de
authors.forename: Dietrich
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stauffer
mesh_terms: D000375:Aging; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics