Community interventions and the epidemic prevention potential.
Evaluation of community-level effects of intervention programs in infectious diseases is receiving increased attention. In this paper, we consider evaluation of the community-level effectiveness measures on the example of vaccination of children against influenza. We introduce the concept of the epidemic prevention potential (EPP) as a measure of the ability of an intervention to either prevent transmission or at least to keep it below a pre-defined limit. As a concept to describe the general ability of an intervention to limit outbreaks to a certain defined size, the term EPP fills a void. We constructed a stochastic simulation model of influenza transmission and vaccination in a structured community to illustrate the effectiveness measures of interest and the epidemic prevention potential. The concepts are general and could be applied to other interventions, such as antivirals and quarantine.
Halloran
M Elizabeth
ME
Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. mehallo@sph.emory.edu
Longini
Ira M
IM
Cowart
David M
DM
Nizam
Azhar
A
D000328:Adult; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D003153:Community Health Services; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014611:Vaccination
D007252:Influenza Vaccines