Predictors of first incidence of DSM-III-R psychiatric disorders in the general population: findings from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study.
OBJECTIVE
To investigate determinants of 12-month first incidence of DSM-III-R mood disorder (MD), anxiety disorder (AD) and substance use disorder (SUD) in the general population.


METHODS
Data are from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS), a prospective epidemiologic study in which a representative sample of 7076 adults aged 18-64 years were interviewed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. New cases diagnosed 12 months after baseline were compared with never diagnosed controls on sociodemographic and psychosocial variables.


RESULTS
Multivariate, the only demographic variable associated with incidence of MD was female gender. The strongest predictors were negative life events and ongoing difficulties. High level of neuroticism was also associated. Incidence of AD was likewise predicted by female gender. Negative life events and ongoing difficulties were also significant predictors, though weaker than for MD. Incidence of SUD was more common among males, young adults, people not living with a partner and those experiencing positive life events.


CONCLUSIONS
Incident MD and AD were predicted more strongly by life events, and SUD more strongly by demographic factors.
De Graaf
R
R
Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Utrecht, The Netherlands. rgraaf@trimbos.nl
Bijl
R V
RV
Ravelli
A
A
Smit
F
F
Vollebergh
W A M
WA
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D011897:Random Allocation; D012494:Sampling Studies