The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.
Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in underconfidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N= 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.
Pallier
Gerry
G
School of Psychology, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia. gerryp@psych.usyd.edu.au
Wilkinson
Rebecca
R
Danthiir
Vanessa
V
Kleitman
Sabina
S
Knezevic
Goran
G
Stankov
Lazar
L
Roberts
Richard D
RD
D000328:Adult; D015982:Bias; D003071:Cognition; D005163:Factor Analysis, Statistical; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D009517:New South Wales; D010465:Perception; D010551:Personality; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012647:Self-Assessment; D013781:Texas