title: An application of the technique of density estimation in geographical epidemiology of goitre in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state of India.
abstract: The Gangetic plains in the Sub-Himalayan belt of India are known endemic areas for goitre. The districts of Muzaffarpur and Sitamarhi in the eastern zone in the Bihar state of India showed a prevalence of over 30 per cent of goitre in a survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) during 1983-1986. In the present paper, the technique of density estimation is employed to estimate the probability density functions of goitre-affected and normal (non-goitre) populations of the district of Muzaffarpur. The likelihood ratio is then plotted against distance of the villages from the Indo-Nepal border keeping their distances from the headquarters in the district of Sitamarhi at fixed level. Using the odds form of Bayes rule, the posterior odds of goitre are calculated and compared at two given points.
authors.affiliation: Division of Reproductive Health and Nutrition, Indian Council of Medical Research, Ansari Nagar, Post Box 4911, New Delhi-110029, India. mukhereeajit@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Ajit
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mukherjee
authors.forename: Shiv
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.forename: Rakesh
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mittal
authors.forename: N C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Saxena
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006043:Goiter, Endemic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D013223:Statistics as Topic / Q000379:methods*