title: Global and regional estimates of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of price increases and other tobacco control policies.
abstract: The objective of this study was to provide conservative estimates of the global and regional effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies. Using a static model of the cohort of smokers alive in 1995, we estimated the number of smoking-attributable deaths that could be averted by: (1) price increases, (2) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and (3) a package of non-price interventions other than NRT. We calculated the cost-effectiveness of these policy interventions by weighing the approximate public-sector costs against the years of healthy life saved, measured in disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs. Even with deliberately conservative assumptions, tax increases that would raise the real price of cigarettes by 10% worldwide would prevent between 5 and 16 million tobacco-related deaths, and could cost 3-70 US dollars per DALY saved in low-income and middle-income regions. NRT and a package of non-price interventions other than NRT are also cost-effective in low-income and middle-income regions, at 280-870 US dollars per DALY and 36-710 US dollars per DALY, respectively. In high-income countries, price increases were found to have a cost-effectiveness of 83-2771 US dollars per DALY, NRT 750-7206 US dollars per DALY and other non-price interventions 696-13,924 US dollars per DALY. Tobacco control policies, particularly tax increases on cigarettes, are cost-effective relative to other health interventions. Our estimates are subject to considerable variation in actual settings; thus, local cost-effectiveness studies are required to guide local policy.
authors.affiliation: Health Policy Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK. k.ranson@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: M Kent
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Ranson
authors.forename: Prabhat
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Jha
authors.forename: Frank J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Chaloupka
authors.forename: Son N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Nguyen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003710:Demography; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008877:Middle East / Q000453:epidemiology; D009538:Nicotine / Q000191:economics*; D011634:Public Health / Q000191:economics*; D014029:Tobacco Use Disorder / Q000191:economics* / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*
chemical_list: D009538:Nicotine