[A further test of a multivariate forecasting model for fertility].
A model developed by J. Nelissen and A. Vossen, for making short-term population projections, is first described.  In this model, the fertility rate is related to the unemployment rate and the fraction of the labor force employed in agriculture.  The model is then applied to Dutch data for the period 1980-1985.  "The main conclusions are that the results depend heavily on the choice of the forecasting period and that the ex-post forecasts of Nelissen and Vossen's model are out-performed by univariate ARIMA-projections." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
De Beer
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D000383:Agriculture; D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004467:Economics; D004651:Employment; D005060:Europe; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D006280:Health Workforce; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D009790:Occupations; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014478:Unemployment
Agricultural Workers; Birth Rate; Comparative Studies; Critique; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Economic Factors; Employment; Estimation Technics; Europe; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Fertility Rate; Human Resources; Labor Force; Macroeconomic Factors; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands; Occupations; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Unemployment; Western Europe