title: A stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent branching processes.
abstract: "Algorithms for a stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and random sums of random variables.  New algorithms provide a capability for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as variances and covariances, measuring variation about means.  Four exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are presented.  Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit population projections...are also presented.  These formulas show that, in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial population size is large.  Further extensions of these formulas to the case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large initial populations."
authors.forename: C J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Mode
authors.forename: M E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.forename: G T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Pickens
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003710:Demography; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011156:Population Density; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Age Factors; Cohort Analysis; Demographic Analysis; Demographic Factors; Estimation Technics; Mathematical Model; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Projection; Population Size; Research Methodology; World