title: Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: how much can be modeled and predicted?
abstract: "We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth)....For death...the logistic portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a two-hundred year-process that forestalls death until about 80 for men and the mid 80s for women.  No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human population is runaway growth or slow implosion... From a niche point of view, resources are the limits to numbers, and access to resources depends on technologies. The logistic makes clear that for homo faber, the limits to numbers keep shifting.  These moving edges may most confound forecasting the long-run size of humanity."
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Marchetti
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Meyer
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Ausubel
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003710:Demography; D004777:Environment; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008136:Longevity; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Demographic Factors; Environment; Estimation Technics; Fertility; Length Of Life; Life Expectancy; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Natural Resources; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Research Methodology; World