title: Modelling urban-rural population growth in China.
abstract: "The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Spence
mesh_terms: D001208:Asia; D002681:China; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D012424:Rural Population; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014505:Urban Population; D014507:Urbanization
keywords: Asia; China; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Differential Fertility; Eastern Asia; Estimation Technics; Fertility; Geographic Factors; Mathematical Model; Migration; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Research Report; Rural Population; Rural-urban Migration; Spatial Distribution; Urban Population; Urban Spatial Distribution; Urbanization