title: Modelling regional population growth in China.
abstract: "This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level.... Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the next century."
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Spence
mesh_terms: D001208:Asia; D002681:China; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Asia; China; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Eastern Asia; Estimation Technics; Geographic Factors; Models, Theoretical; Multiregional Analysis; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Projection; Research Methodology