title: Economic-demographic modeling with endogenously determined birth and migration rates:  theory and prospects.
abstract: "The standard demographic approach to population forecasting consists of extrapolating into the future carefully measured birth, death, and migration rates.  An alternative is to forecast changes in those rates on the basis of social science theories.  In this paper the prospects for incorporating those theories into forecasting models are assessed.  The paper has two parts, the first devoted to fertility and the second to migration.  Each contains a description of the demographic methods currently used by the US Bureau of the Census followed by a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations for forecasting and an assessment of the prospects for doing so."
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Isserman
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Birth Rate; Demographic Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economic Model; Estimation Technics; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Migration; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Population Theory; Research Methodology; United States