title: Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration.
abstract: "This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gorbey
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: James
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Poot
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005544:Forecasting; D009520:New Zealand; D010139:Pacific Islands; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011640:Public Policy; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Australia; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; International Migration; Migration; Migration Policy; New Zealand; Oceania; Policy; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Policy; Research Methodology; Social Policy