title: The demographic components of population aging in China.
abstract: "In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology.... Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population.  At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered."
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Grigsby
authors.forename: S J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Olshansky
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001208:Asia; D002681:China; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Adult; Age Distribution--changes; Age Factors; Aged; Asia; China; Demographic Aging; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Eastern Asia; Estimation Technics; Fertility; Mortality; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Projection; Population Size; Research Methodology