title: The effect of commercial policy on international migration flows:  the case of the United States and Mexico.
abstract: "Microeconomic simulations are performed to determine the impact of liberalized commodity trade on Mexican immigrant supply to the United States.  The results suggest that a removal of trade barriers will reduce migration flows, but that the reduction will be fairly modest.  Specifically, if both countries move from the levels of protection characteristic of the mid-1960s to completely free trade, the ratio of real U.S.-Mexican wages falls by roughly 18 percent.  Using an upper bound for the range of empirical estimates of the wage elasticity of immigrant supply, this implies a maximum reduction in migration flows of 35 percent.  A unilateral elimination of trade barriers by the United States reduces Mexican immigrant supply by a maximum of 14 percent."
authors.forename: J K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Mendez
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D002489:Central America; D003132:Commerce; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D004467:Economics; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D007843:Latin America; D008800:Mexico; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011640:Public Policy; D012456:Salaries and Fringe Benefits; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Central America; Commerce; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Development Policy; Economic Development; Economic Factors; International Migration; Latin America; Macroeconomic Factors; Mexico; Microeconomic Factors; Migration; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Policy; Population; Population Dynamics; Socioeconomic Factors; United States; Wages