title: [Predictability of demographic changes in the short run].
abstract: The author discusses the value of univariate time series models to assess the accuracy of official short-term population forecasts in the Netherlands.  "Three time series methods (exponential smoothing, ARIMA-model and structural time series model) are applied to Dutch data on live births, deaths, marriages, immigrants and emigrants."  The data concern the period 1979-1984.  The methods are also applied to data for the period 1970-1975 for comparative purposes.  (summary in ENG)
authors.lastname: De Beer Jaa
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Europe; Evaluation; Evaluation Report; Measurement; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Time Factors; Western Europe