title: Dealing with uncertainty:  statistics for an aging population.
abstract: "Uncertainty in statistics and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes from four sources:  differences in definitions, sampling error, nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining uncertainty.  Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making.  Techniques for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory, assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis, and multiple independent estimates."  The primary geographical focus is on the United States.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Stoto
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D001519:Behavior; D003625:Data Collection; D003657:Decision Making; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning; D009656:North America; D009934:Organization and Administration; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011640:Public Policy; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D015983:Selection Bias; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Behavior; Coordination; Data Analysis; Data Collection; Data Sources; Decision Making; Demographic Aging; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Management; Measurement; North America; Northern America; Organization And Administration; Planning; Policy; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Population Statistics; Reliability; Research Methodology; Sampling Errors; United States