[Uncertainty variants in population forecasts for the Netherlands].
"Because of the uncertainty of population forecasts the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes a Low and a High variant next to the Medium variant.... Variants are obtained by using a deterministic model.  Hence the probability that the interval between the variants [covers] the true future values is unknown.  Under reasonable assumptions a statistical confidence interval for total population size can be derived.  The basic assumption is that the forecast errors of population growth are serially correlated.  If a first-order autoregressive model is estimated on the basis of all population forecasts published...since 1950, it turns out that the interval between the Low and High variants corresponds reasonably close to a two-thirds confidence interval in the next two decades." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
De Beer
J
J
D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
Data Analysis; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Europe; Evaluation; Evaluation Methodology; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands; Population Forecast; Research Methodology; Western Europe