title: An econometric model for forecasting regional population growth.
abstract: "An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas.  The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth.  It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population."
authors.forename: T R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Plaut
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005544:Forecasting; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013781:Texas; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Economic Model; Estimation Technics; Migration; Migration, Internal; Models, Theoretical; Natural Increase; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Growth; Population Growth Estimation; Research Methodology; Texas; United States