title: The uncertain connection:  free trade and rural Mexican migration to the United States.
abstract: "Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the United States, as the U.S. and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege?  This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico.  The available evidence suggests four major reasons why Mexican emigration may not increase massively, despite extensive restructuring and displacement from traditional agriculture....NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the U.S. labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico."
authors.forename: W A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Cornelius
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Martin
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D002489:Central America; D003132:Commerce; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D004467:Economics; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D004651:Employment; D005544:Forecasting; D006280:Health Workforce; D007391:International Cooperation; D007843:Latin America; D008800:Mexico; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014171:Transients and Migrants; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Central America; Commerce; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economic Development; Economic Factors; Employment; Estimation Technics; Human Resources; International Cooperation; International Migration; Labor Force; Labor Migration; Latin America; Macroeconomic Factors; Mexico; Migrant Workers; Migration; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Growth Estimation; Research Methodology; United States