title: [The application of Markov chains to demographic projections in smaller geopolitical areas].
abstract: "This article deals with the use of Markov chains to project population in smaller geopolitical areas.  The method consists of projecting only the relative distribution which, applied to a previous demographic projection, gives figures for the population by subregion.  An algorithm is worked out, allowing for an estimate to be made of the transitional probabilities of the chain based on easily available data:  the total population residing in two or more regions or states in only two specific moments.  Once those probabilities have been determined, the projection of the probabilities and of the relative distribution is direct.  This method is applied to the metropolitan zone of Mexico City, for which population and territorial extension are projected." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
authors.forename: V P
authors.initials: VP
authors.lastname: Bush
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D007843:Latin America; D008390:Markov Chains; D008800:Mexico; D009656:North America; D011057:Politics; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011336:Probability; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014505:Urban Population
keywords: Americas; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Estimation Technics; Geographic Factors; Latin America; Markov Chain; Mexico; North America; Political Factors; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Projection; Probability; Research Methodology; Spatial Distribution; Statistical Studies; Studies; Urban Population; Urban Spatial Distribution