title: Forecast accuracy of Australian subnational population projections.
abstract: The authors assess demographic projections made over the last 20 years for Australia.  "This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity.  Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970.  Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth.  We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends."
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Skinner
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D010139:Pacific Islands; D011153:Population; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Australia; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Evaluation Report; Geographic Factors; Measurement; Oceania; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Projection; Population Size; Research Methodology