Turbulent dynamics in a XVIIth century population.
"A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux [France] (1589-1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator....An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so-called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions.  The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good....A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level."  (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Bonneuil
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D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005298:Fertility; D005602:France; D008393:Marriage; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012942:Social Sciences; D013997:Time Factors
Demographic Factors; Demography; Developed Countries; Europe; Fertility; France; Historical Demography; Marriage; Marriage Patterns; Mediterranean Countries; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Nuptiality; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology; Retrospective Studies; Social Sciences; Studies; Time Factors; Western Europe