title: Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States:  a vector autoregressive model.
abstract: "Using vector-autoregressions...this paper shows that fertility moves countercyclically over the business cycle....[It] shows that the United States fertility is not governed by a deterministic trend as was assumed by previous studies.  Rather, fertility evolves around a stochastic trend.  It is shown that a bivariate analysis between fertility and unemployment yields a procyclical picture of fertility.  However, when one considers the effects on fertility of early marriages and the divorce behavior as well as economic activity, fertility moves countercyclically."
authors.forename: N H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Mocan
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004243:Divorce; D004467:Economics; D004651:Employment; D005298:Fertility; D008393:Marriage; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D014478:Unemployment; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Divorce; Economic Factors; Economic Model; Employment; Fertility--changes; Macroeconomic Factors; Marriage; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Nuptiality; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology; Unemployment; United States