title: [[Determinants of the decline in the total marital fertility rate in the early 1970s]].
abstract: The author examines "the relationship between the total marital fertility rate and the cohort marital fertility pattern in Japan since the late 1960s.  We calculated parity-duration-year-specific marital fertility rates and conducted comparisons among them cohort by cohort and period by period.  In addition, we carried out a decomposition of the change in total marital fertility rates into the tempo and quantum components on two different assumptions about future completed fertility.  By calculating the first-birth, second-birth and third-birth timing indices, we could specify the effect due to a change of birth timing for each parity on the variation of the total marital fertility rate."  It is found that "given that the drop in the total fertility rate in the early 1970s is largely attributable to a decrease in the total marital fertility rate, most of the drop in the total fertility rate in this period is also attributable to the change in second-birth timing over marriage cohorts since the middle 1960s and the temporal disturbance in second-birth timing in marriage cohorts of the early 1970s." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Otani
mesh_terms: D001208:Asia; D001721:Birth Intervals; D001723:Birth Rate; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005298:Fertility; D007564:Japan; D008393:Marriage; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Asia; Birth Intervals; Birth Rate; Cohort Analysis; Comparative Studies; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Eastern Asia; Fertility Determinants; Fertility Measurements; Fertility Rate; Fertility--changes; Japan; Marital Fertility--changes; Marital Fertility--determinants; Marriage; Marriage Duration; Nuptiality; Parity Specific Birth Rate; Period Analysis; Population; Population Dynamics; Time Factors; Total Fertility Rate--changes