title: The macroeconomic impact of AIDS in Malawi: a dualistic, labour surplus economy.
abstract: This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi.  This is done by using Bulatao's (1990) predictions of the disease's demographic impact in a dual-economy macro model.  The with-AIDS scenario is compared with a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to assess the impact of the disease if it spreads unchecked.  The results suggest that by the year 2010, Malawian real GDP could be as much as 10% smaller than it would have been in the absence of the AIDS epidemic.  The impact on per capita income is smaller, ranging from 0% to 3% lower than it would have been in the no-AIDS case by 2010.
authors.forename: J T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Cuddington
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Hancock
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; D000349:Africa; D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D000351:Africa, Eastern; D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D004194:Disease; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004467:Economics; D015658:HIV Infections; D008295:Malawi; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D014777:Virus Diseases
keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Demographic Factors; Demographic Impact; Developing Countries; Diseases; Eastern Africa; Economic Factors; English Speaking Africa; Epidemics; Gross National Product--changes; Hiv Infections; Macroeconomic Factors; Malawi; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Dynamics; Production; Research Methodology; Theoretical Studies; Viral Diseases