title: The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S.  immigration policy.
abstract: "The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate--modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates--has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized.  These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity."
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Abernethy
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003469:Culture; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D004467:Economics; D004777:Environment; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005298:Fertility; D005376:Financial Management; D007391:International Cooperation; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D011640:Public Policy
keywords: Carrying Capacity; Cultural Background; Demographic Factors; Demographic Transition; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economic Development; Economic Factors; Environment; Environmental Degradation; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Size; Family Size, Desired--changes; Fertility; Fertility Determinants; Financial Activities; Foreign Aid; Migration Policy; Natural Resources; Policy; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Growth--determinants; Population Policy; Population Size; Social Policy