title: Reproduction rates in multiregion modeling systems for HIV / AIDS.
abstract: The persistence of HIV/AIDS has seen a revival of academic interest in the development of modeling systems to assist understanding the population dynamics of this infection. Moreover, it has become increasingly recognized that a key component of these systems for interpreting disease prevention is their reproduction rate, which provides an indication of whether an epidemic might start in a community described by a particular set of epidemiological characteristics.  The properties of these rates have been explored in detail for models of a single risk behavior but not for multiregion formats that allow for the transfer of infection between geographical units.  Therefore, in this paper the author derives reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model together with their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin.  These statistics are interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS.  In the discussion the author examines the potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Thomas
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; D001519:Behavior; D003710:Demography; D004194:Disease; D004813:Epidemiology; D005843:Geography; D015658:HIV Infections; D006262:Health; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011634:Public Health; D012106:Research; D012309:Risk-Taking; D014777:Virus Diseases
keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Behavior; Demographic Factors; Diseases; Epidemiology; Geographic Factors; Health; Hiv Infections; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Dynamics; Public Health; Research Methodology; Risk Behavior; Viral Diseases; World