title: Forecasting first births.
abstract: This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children.  The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research.  "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births."  Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.
authors.forename: W J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Primeaux
authors.forename: D E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Pursell
authors.forename: C L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Bare
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American; D000569:Americas; D001722:Birth Order; D001723:Birth Rate; D002140:California; D003469:Culture; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D005006:Ethnicity; D005190:Family; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008389:Marketing of Health Services; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D017584:Reproductive History; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States; D044465:White People
keywords: Americas; Blacks; California; Cultural Background; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Estimation Technics; Ethnic Groups; Family And Household; Family Life Cycle; Family Research; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; First Birth; Market Research; Marketing; Mathematical Model; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Pregnancy History; Research Methodology; United States; Whites