title: Uncertainty variants of population forecasts.
abstract: "When using population forecasts it is important to take into account the degree of uncertainty of the results.  For that reason the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes low and high variants next to the most probable medium variant.... The width of the interval between the variants is based on an analysis of previous forecast errors.  The degree of uncertainty of the various forecast results turns out to vary strongly.... On the basis of a statistical time-series model of forecast errors of total population growth, a confidence interval of total population size can be estimated."
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: De Beer
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D009426:Netherlands; D011153:Population; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Europe; Measurement; Netherlands; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Growth; Population Size; Reliability; Research Methodology; Western Europe