title: From birth expectations to birth forecasts:  a partial-adjustment approach.
abstract: "As women's expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used directly for forecasting purposes.  This paper discusses a partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is examined.  Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem promising."
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: De Beer
mesh_terms: D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Births Expected; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Europe; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Size; Family Size, Completed; Family Size, Desired; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Research Methodology; Western Europe