title: A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts.
abstract: "This paper proposes the use of a log-linear model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the aggregative projections.  The proposed model is tested using U.S. data.  The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend methods.  A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear technique is superior to the other two methods.  Five different measures of errors are used to evaluate the projections."
authors.forename: K W
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Ketkar
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004467:Economics; D004651:Employment; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D012106:Research; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012923:Social Class; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Age Factors; Americas; Comparative Studies; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Economic Factors; Employment Status--women; Estimation Technics; Family And Household; Geographic Factors; Households; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Residence Characteristics; Socioeconomic Factors; Socioeconomic Status; Spatial Distribution; Studies; United States