title: Population forecasts for South Pacific nations using autoregressive models, 1985-2000.
abstract: "This paper uses an autoregressive statistical model to forecast population for Fiji, Western Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and compares these forecasts with those obtained from other methods. The growth rate of population is predicted to continue to fall in Fiji and Tonga, rise a little for Western Samoa, and rise considerably in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands.  The implications of the forecasts for recent government development plans are also discussed."
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Ahlburg
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005367:Fiji; D005544:Forecasting; D008542:Melanesia; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010139:Pacific Islands; D011114:Polynesia; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012106:Research; D018947:Samoa; D012939:Social Planning; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014058:Tonga; D009514:Vanuatu
keywords: Comparative Studies; Data Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Development Planning; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Fiji; Melanesia; Micronesia-polynesia; Models, Theoretical; Oceania; Polynesia; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Growth; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Samoa; Solomon Islands; Statistical Regression; Statistical Studies; Tonga; Vanuatu