[[A dynamic model for populations reproduced by first marriage]].
Using data for Japan, the author analyzes "the effect of nuptiality and of marital fertility [on population trends and constructs] a population model in which childbearing occurs only within first marriage....First, we can prove that...we can construct a stable population theory based on nuptiality and marital fertility....Next..., we investigate the effect of [the age shift in first marriage patterns on total fertility rates], since delay of marriage has been thought to be one of [the] major causes for long-term fertility decline in Japan.  We conclude that although [the age shift in first marriage patterns] could decrease Japanese fertility, its effect seems to be insufficient to induce such rapid fertility decline as is observed recently in Japan." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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D000367:Age Factors; D001208:Asia; D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005298:Fertility; D007564:Japan; D017533:Marital Status; D008393:Marriage; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011154:Population Characteristics; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012942:Social Sciences
Age Factors; Asia; Birth Rate; Demographic Factors; Demography; Developed Countries; Eastern Asia; Fertility; Fertility Decline; Fertility Measurements; Fertility Rate; Japan; Marital Fertility; Marital Status; Marriage; Marriage Age; Marriage Patterns; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Nuptiality; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Size; Population Theory; Research Methodology; Social Sciences; Stable Population; Total Fertility Rate