Forecast intervals of net migration:  the case of the Netherlands.
This study addresses problems concerning the forecasting of net migration in the preparation of population forecasts.  "As the width of forecast intervals for migration in single years differs strongly from that of an interval for average migration during the forecast period, it is important that the forecaster indicates which type of interval is presented. A comparison of forecast intervals for net migration obtained from an ARIMA model to intervals in official Dutch national population forecasts shows that the uncertainty on migration has been underestimated in past official forecasts."
D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic
Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Europe; Measurement; Migration; Models, Theoretical; Netherlands; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Western Europe