The Framingham prediction rule is not valid in a European population of treated hypertensive patients.
BACKGROUND
Stratification of population groups according to cardiovascular risk level is recommended for primary prevention.


OBJECTIVE
To assess whether the Framingham models could accurately predict the absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in a large cohort of middle-aged European patients with hypertension, and rank individual patients according to actual risk.


METHODS
A prospective cohort study comparing the actual risk with that predicted by either the Framingham equations or models derived from the INSIGHT study.


METHODS
From the INSIGHT prospective trial, conducted in eight countries of Western Europe and Israel, we selected 4407 European patients younger than 75 years without previous cardiovascular events.


METHODS
None.


METHODS
Major cardiovascular events.


RESULTS
In this population (45% men, mean age 64.1 years), 124 (2.8%) patients had CHD and 96 (2.2%) had strokes after a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Overestimation of absolute CHD risk by the Framingham equation was observed in all countries (from 2% in the UK to 7% in France), whereas predicted risk of stroke was close to the actual risk. However, patients in the highest risk quintile within each country had a threefold greater risk of a cardiovascular event than those in the lowest quintile.


CONCLUSIONS
The Framingham models should not be used to predict absolute CHD risk in the European population as a whole. However, these models may be used within each country, provided that cut-off points defining high-risk patients have been determined within each country.
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology; D015994:Incidence; D007557:Israel / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012372:ROC Curve; D011897:Random Allocation; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology; D013599:Systole / Q000502:physiology
D000959:Antihypertensive Agents; D002784:Cholesterol