title: A stochastic version of the Malthusian Trap Model: consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's.
abstract: A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described.  This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these 2 growth rates under 2 additional assumptions:  1) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and 2) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation.  It is shown that these 2 assumptions can explain near-0 correlations between the 2 growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth.  However, it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations.  Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D003906:Developing Countries; D004467:Economics; D007182:Income; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D011336:Probability; D012106:Research; D012942:Social Sciences; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Correlation Of Data; Correlation Studies; Demographic Analysis; Demographic Factors; Demographic Transition; Demography; Developing Countries; Economic Conditions; Economic Development; Economic Factors; Economic Model; Income; Macroeconomic Factors; Malthusianism; Mathematical Model; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Theory; Probability; Research Methodology; Social Sciences; Socioeconomic Factors; Statistical Studies; Studies; Time Factors