title: Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition.
abstract: "This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy.  Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns."  The geographic focus is on the United States.  "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust.  This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy.  It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D003858:Dependency, Psychological; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D004467:Economics; D005193:Family Planning Services; D005298:Fertility; D005376:Financial Management; D005380:Financing, Government; D005583:Fourier Analysis; D006285:Health Planning; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011155:Population Control; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D015397:Program Evaluation; D011640:Public Policy; D012943:Social Security; D012946:Social Welfare; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Baby Boom; Baby Bust; Cyclic Analysis; Demographic Effectiveness; Demographic Factors; Dependency Burden; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economic Factors; Family Planning; Family Planning Program Evaluation; Family Planning Programs; Fertility; Financial Activities; Financing, Government; Microeconomic Factors; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Policy; Population; Population Dynamics; Social Policy; Social Security; Social Welfare; Socioeconomic Factors; United States