title: Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories.
abstract: "A method is presented for unravelling the demographic equation for structured populations.  A solution to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation is constructed using spline functions and this is fitted to stage-structured population data in such a way that the solution is smooth, positive, and does not imply negative death rates.  The smoothness of the surface, and hence the complexity of the population model, is determined in a statistically optimum manner using cross validation.  Time- and age-dependent death rates can be obtained as well as time-dependent birth rates.  Confidence intervals are obtained for population size and death rates that give a 95% probability that the true population dynamics are within the intervals. Practical application of the method is demonstrated, and comparison made with three alternative methods."
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research
keywords: Comparative Studies; Demographic Factors; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology; Studies; World