title: [Simulation of possible developments in urbanization in the German Democratic Republic by the use of a multi-regional population model].
abstract: An attempt is made to forecast likely trends in urbanization in the German Democratic Republic over the next 50 years using the multi-regional approach developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria.  "Three scenarios describe possible variants in the changes of fertility, mortality and interregional migration as demographic factors.  The term 'region' is applied to 4 sizes of communities each grouped as rural communities, small towns, small medium-size towns, and large medium-size towns/large towns.  The results of the simulation indicate for all three scenarios an absolute and relative decline in population of the rural communities and a continuation of the process of concentration among the population."  (summary in ENG, RUS)
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005060:Europe; D005061:Europe, Eastern; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D005859:Germany, East; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014505:Urban Population; D014507:Urbanization
keywords: Developed Countries; Eastern Europe; Estimation Technics; Europe; Fertility; Geographic Factors; German Democratic Republic; Migration; Migration, Internal; Mortality; Population; Population Forecast; Population Growth Estimation; Research Methodology; Spatial Distribution--changes; Urban Spatial Distribution; Urbanization
vernacular_title: Simulation moglicher Entwicklungen des Verstadterungsprozesses in der DDR unter Nutzung eines multiregionalen Bevolkerungsmodells