title: Forecasting state and local population growth with limited data: the use of employment-migration relationships and trends in vital rates.
abstract: In this study, the rate of growth of state and local populations in the United States is related to the growth rate of national employment, and to demographic and economic features of the regions concerned, in order to make more realistic long-term population projections.  Both natural increase and migration are taken into account in the model developed.  "The model is estimated for two regions, the El Paso, TX, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) and the State of New Mexico.  Several statistical problems arise because of the limited number of available time-series observations.  Fully dynamic historical simulations track the population quite closely, in one case never differing from the actual value by more than 1.17% and in the other never differing by more than 1.36%."
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004467:Economics; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D004651:Employment; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009516:New Mexico; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012106:Research; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013781:Texas; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Area Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Economic Factors; Employment; Estimation Technics; Macroeconomic Factors; Migration; Models, Theoretical; Natural Increase; New Mexico; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Growth; Population Projection; Research Methodology; Socioeconomic Factors; Texas; United States