title: Uncertain population forecasting.
abstract: "Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates.  The propagation of these errors through the linear (Leslie) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed.  For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high-low intervals."  In order to assess the accuracy of the predictions of vital rates, the authors "derive the predictions from a parametric statistical model and estimate the extent of model misspecification and errors in parameter estimates.  Subjective, expert opinion, so important in real forecasting, is incorporated with the technique of mixed estimation.  A robust regression model is used to assess the effects of model misspecification."
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009656:North America; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Americas; Comparative Studies; Data Analysis; Demographic Analysis; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Mathematical Model; Measurement; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Reliability; Research Methodology; United States