title: [The reliability of the expectation (not) to have a child within three years].
abstract: The author examines the reliability of fertility expectations in the Netherlands over a three-year period starting in 1982.  The data are from the 1982 and 1985 Netherlands Fertility Surveys.  "On the individual level the expectations of 86% of all women turned out to be consistent with the demographic behaviour in the following three years.  Of the women who had expected to have a child 63% had had one.  Of the women who had not expected to have a child 92% indeed did not.... On the aggregate level the forecast was reasonably accurate: 21% of all women had expected to have a child whereas 20% had had one.  Obviously the forecast error is larger for some categories of women than for others:  the most deviant are the cohabiting women who show a rather large overestimation.  But generally speaking the results of this analysis are promising for the use of short-term birth expectations in population forecasts." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
mesh_terms: D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008393:Marriage; D009426:Netherlands; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Births Expected; Consensual Union; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Europe; Evaluation; Evaluation Report; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Size; Family Size, Completed; Family Size, Desired; Family Size, Expected; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Netherlands; Nuptiality; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Research Methodology; Western Europe
vernacular_title: De betrouwbaarheid van de verwachting binnen drie jaar (g)een kind te krijgen.