title: Combining probabilistic and subjective assessments of error to provide realistic appraisals of demographic forecast uncertainty: Alho's approach.
abstract: "With increasing interest in forecast uncertainty, there is an evolving concern with assessing the degree of certainty we can attach to uncertainty itself. This concern is the subject of recent work by Juha Alho.... I examine [his] approach systematically and draw general conclusions about its efficacy. Suggestions for improvement are made."
mesh_terms: D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Critique; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Research Methodology; World