title: [Probability evaluation of yearly infant mortality].
abstract: A critical survey of the most commonly used indexes of infant mortality rates by year is presented.  "The most reliable index per year is Beck's coefficient.  It improves with the migration balance of the external and internal migration of children which is observed in accordance with 'elementary aggregates'.  The number of live-born children is corrected by two-thirds of the migration balance in the lower elementary aggregate.  The number of children born during the previous year who have survived until the beginning of the current one is corrected by one-third of the migration balance in the upper elementary aggregate.  These corrections can be improved by the ratio of the migration balances in the lower and upper elementary aggregates.  The final results for the infantile mortality are evaluated stochastically."  The method is illustrated using Bulgarian data.  (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)
mesh_terms: D002031:Bulgaria; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005061:Europe, Eastern; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D007226:Infant Mortality; D008722:Methods; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Bulgaria; Critique; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Eastern Europe; Estimation Technics; Europe; Infant Mortality; Measurement; Methodological Studies; Mortality; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology
vernacular_title: Veroyatnostna otsenka na detskata smartnost za otdelna kalendarna godina.