title: Immigration to Western Europe, 1952-1982:  a time-series analysis of movement to Sweden, France, and Essen.
abstract: "Two contradictory approaches--an equilibrium view based on neoclassical economic principles and a structuralist view based on labour needs of core economies--dominate contemporary international migration research.  Using a monthly time-series for Essen [Federal Republic of Germany], Sweden, and France for 1952-1982 of immigration by different nationalities, a specific hypothesis derived from the neoclassical view, relating immigration to economic growth and stagnation, was tested using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling approach."  The only support for the hypothesis came from the example of the local labor market in Essen.  The author notes that "most migration flows are described by complex ARIMA models.  Immigration legislation had a stronger and more direct effect on the strength and timing of flows than economic trends.  Predictions based on univariate and bivariate models are not very useful:  immigration trends over the past decade are significantly different from earlier flows."
mesh_terms: D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D004467:Economics; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D004651:Employment; D005060:Europe; D005602:France; D005860:Germany, West; D006280:Health Workforce; D007878:Legislation as Topic; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011640:Public Policy; D012106:Research; D012537:Scandinavian and Nordic Countries; D013548:Sweden; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Demographic Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Economic Development; Economic Factors; Economic Model; Europe; France; Germany, Federal Republic Of; Human Resources; International Migration; Labor Force; Legislation; Macroeconomic Factors; Manpower Needs; Mediterranean Countries; Migration; Migration Policy; Models, Theoretical; Northern Europe; Policy; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Policy; Research Methodology; Research Report; Scandinavia; Social Policy; Sweden; Time Factors; Western Europe