title: Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality.
abstract: "There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age-specific mortality:  (1) analyze age-specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause-specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause-specific mortality series jointly and add the results.  We show that if linear models are used for cause-specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause-specific series are correlated.  This result holds for cross-correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification.... The results are illustrated with U.S.  age-specific mortality:  (1) analyse age-specific  mortality data from 1968-1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones."  This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 407).
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D002423:Cause of Death; D002965:Classification; D003625:Data Collection; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008722:Methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009656:North America; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012107:Research Design; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014481:United States
keywords: Age Specific Death Rate; Americas; Causes Of Death; Classification; Data Aggregation; Death Rate; Demographic Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Error Sources; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Mathematical Model; Measurement; Methodological Studies; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Research Methodology; United States