title: Fertility projection based on birth order data--a Swedish approach.
abstract: "The decreasing fertility rates in Sweden during the 1970s can be explained as postponement of childbearing.  An increasingly larger part of each generation has chosen to bear children at a late age, after education and some years of occupational work.  As a consequence, the yearly age-specific rates will, in years to come, change systematically towards relatively high rates for women in the second half of the fertile period; changes which are important in population projections.  To predict the future rates a model based on birth order data and assumptions about the final family size is used. The model and its application in the 1989 projection of the Swedish population is discussed in the paper.  Alternative projections and the assumptions behind the alternatives are specified."
mesh_terms: D001722:Birth Order; D001723:Birth Rate; D003710:Demography; D019049:Developed Countries; D005060:Europe; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005195:Family Relations; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D008423:Maternal Age; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012106:Research; D012537:Scandinavian and Nordic Countries; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013548:Sweden
keywords: Age Specific Fertility Rate--changes; Birth Order; Birth Rate; Delayed Childbearing; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Estimation Technics; Europe; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Relationships; Family Size; Family Size, Completed; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Fertility Rate; Models, Theoretical; Northern Europe; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Projection; Reproductive Behavior; Research Methodology; Scandinavia; Sweden