title: Prediction of marginal bone loss and tooth loss--a prospective study over 20 years.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of potential risk predictors/risk factors on the longitudinal marginal bone loss and tooth loss over 20 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  A clinical and radiographic investigation of a sample of 513 individuals was performed in 1970 and 1990. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were adopted to calculate the influence of the potential risk predictors/risk factors on the longitudinal marginal bone loss and tooth loss.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Russell's Periodontal Index in 1970 and smoking were significantly and positively correlated to longitudinal bone loss. Russell's Periodontal Index, marginal bone loss and Plaque Index at baseline were positively and significantly correlated to the longitudinal tooth loss, whilst age, the number of missing teeth in 1970 and the number of school years showed a significant negative correlation to number of teeth lost between 1970 and 1990.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Smoking was found to be a significant risk factor in marginal bone loss, while plaque was a risk factor in tooth loss. However, the regression models explained a low percentage of the total variance, especially for marginal bone loss.
authors.affiliation: Department of Periodontology at Skanstull, Folktandvården i Stockholms län AB and the Institute of Odontology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm. leif.jansson@ftv.sll.se
authors.forename: Leif
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jansson
authors.forename: Stig
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lavstedt
authors.forename: Mikael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zimmerman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D016301:Alveolar Bone Loss / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology; D003773:Dental Plaque / Q000150:complications; D003774:Dental Plaque Index; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010512:Periodontal Index; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D016388:Tooth Loss / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology