[Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany].
At the beginning of the 21st century, Germany is experiencing the highest demographic aging after Japan. The aging process was first initiated by the increase of life expectancy, especially at the age above 60 years which caused an increase in the number of old people. During the next phase (1970-2000) the aging process was additionally affected by decreasing birth rates. Since the end of the 1960s the total fertility rate in Germany has been below the replacement level. As a consequence the number of children is decreasing and the number of old people has been increasing for 30 years. Various population projections published by the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS) demonstrate that the aging process will intensify during the next 50 years: the number of the oldest old population will triple, and the dependancy ratio will at least double. This process cannot be stopped or considerably diminished by an increasing number of young immigrants. After 2050 the cohorts born after the second world war (the baby boom cohorts) will be dead. But the decreasing number of old people beyond 2050 will not automatically lead to a lower dependancy ratio, because the age group 0-20 is diminishing continuously. Only a rise of the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 children per women could stop the aging process effectively in the long run (i.e., after two generations or after 60 years, respectively). In this case, the dependancy ratio will not double or triple but increase by a factor of 1.5.
Birg
Herwig
H
Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik der Universität Bielefeld Postfach 100131 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. herwig.birg@uni-bielefeld.de
Flöthmann
E J
EJ
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D011155:Population Control / Q000639:trends; D011157:Population Dynamics