title: [Predictive factors of hospital and 6-month morbidity and mortality in hospitalized elderly patients].
abstract: This article presents the results of a prospective multivariable study of elderly patients aged over 70 years, hospitalized in an Internal Medicine Department of a Central Lisbon Hospital. The study aimed to identify, at the beginning of hospital admission (HA), predictive factors of hospital mortality (HM) and mortality at 6 months, of duration of HA, of admission to a nursing home at the time of discharge and during a period of 6 months thereafter and of hospital readmission during the 6 months following discharge. The study included 158 patients with a mean hospital stay of 15 days and a hospital mortality of 12%. The main pathologies responsible for hospital admission were cerebrovascular accident (22%), heart failure (20%) and pneumonia (16%). Mortality at 6 months was 29% and hospital readmission in the 6 months thereafter was 24%. When the patient was cared for by the spouse there was a statistically significant correlation with a shorter duration of admission (p = 0.006). Mean hospital stay was not significantly associated with any other variable. A subjective medical evaluation (SME) at the start of HA (p = 0.001), a low Barthel score prior to and at the time of HA, low serum albumin (p = 0.001) and a high leucocyte count (p = 0.005) were correlated with a higher HM. Nursing home admission was only positively correlated with cerebrovascular pathology. Mortality at 6 months was significantly correlated with the SME (p = 0.001), a low Barthel score prior to admission (p < 0.008) and at the time of HA (p < 0.001), nursing home residency (p < 0.005) and a low mental test score (p < 0.01). Hospital readmission at 6 months was influenced by the SME (p < 0.04) and by the reduction in the Barthel score caused by the illness and HA (p = 0.004). These correlations enabled the development of mathematical models that predict HM and mortality at 6 months and admission to a nursing home at the time of discharge and during a period of 6 months thereafter. They could be important in identifying elderly patients' needs early in the hospital admission and in the improvement of the strategy necessary for a successful and dignified hospital discharge.
authors.affiliation: Serviço de Medicina Interna, Hospital de Egas Moniz, Lisboa.
authors.forename: Sílvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sousa
authors.forename: M F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Moraes
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Beato
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Corredoura
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Rodrigues
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Soares
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lourenço
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gomes
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Godinho
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Oliveira
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Santos
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Soares
authors.forename: T P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Ribeiro
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jordão
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Menitra
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Aguiar
authors.forename: J Pimenta
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Graça
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Abecasis
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010359:Patient Readmission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors