[The long-run development of mortality in Germany].
The paper deals with the long-run development in mortality at individual ages in Germany by using a relative index of change in probabilities to die. The mortality at early childhood ages diminished to about one percent of what it was in the first German life table of 1871/81. Changes in infant mortality alone were responsible for 25 percent of the total increase in "life expectancy at birth" in the observation period. Changes in mortality at ages below 10 accounted for roughly 50 percent of change in life expectancy at birth. In the second part of the paper the measurement concept is used to evaluate assumptions about the future course of mortality in Germany. The most recent official forecast by the German Statistical Office is used to demonstrate the principle. The official assumptions about the future mortality proof to be unrealistically conservative. At ages below 20 the latest available data on mortality are more favorable than what is assumed for the year 2050.
Dinkel
Reiner H
RH
Univ. Rostock Ulmenstr. 69 18051 Rostock, Germany.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality / Q000639:trends; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability