Estimating the proportion of Americans ever experiencing poverty during their elderly years.
OBJECTIVE
This study estimates the age-specific and cumulative proportions of American adults who will experience poverty at some point during their elderly years. These life-span proportions represent a substantially different approach to understanding poverty than calculating either yearly cross-sectional rates or poverty spell durations.


METHODS
Our estimations are derived through a series of life tables built upon 25 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).


RESULTS
The analyses indicate that 40% of America's elderly population will experience a year below the poverty line at some point between the ages of 60 and 90, and 48% of elders will experience poverty at the 125% level. The data further reveal that this life-span risk of poverty has remained relatively stable throughout the period of data collection (1968-1992). Finally, the likelihood of elderly Americans ever encountering a year below the poverty line increases dramatically for those who are Black, not married, and/or who have less than 12 years of education.


CONCLUSIONS
Our results suggest that in spite of relatively low cross-sectional rates of elderly poverty in America, the likelihood of impoverishment at some point during the later years of life remains a very real possibility.
Rank
M R
MR
George Warren Brown School of Social Work, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Hirschl
T A
TA
D000368:Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015993:Life Tables; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011203:Poverty / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012306:Risk; D014481:United States