title: Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America.
abstract: Methods of risk assessment for alien species, especially for nonagricultural systems, are largely qualitative. Using a generalizable risk assessment approach and statistical models of fish introductions into the Great Lakes, North America, we developed a quantitative approach to target prevention efforts on species most likely to cause damage. Models correctly categorized established, quickly spreading, and nuisance fishes with 87 to 94% accuracy. We then identified fishes that pose a high risk to the Great Lakes if introduced from unintentional (ballast water) or intentional pathways (sport, pet, bait, and aquaculture industries).
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. ckolar@usgs.gov
authors.forename: Cynthia S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Kolar
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Lodge
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D004463:Ecology; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005399:Fishes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012623:Seawater; D012965:Sodium Chloride; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D012965:Sodium Chloride