title: Capacity planning. Model behavior.
abstract: A model in use in a primary care trust enables the prediction of acute admissions to hospital over a two-year period. The results show that the rise in emergency medical admissions threatens the local hospital's capacity to meet waiting-time targets for planned work. The research also showed that the establishment of a local diagnostic and treatment centre would reduce levels of occupancy in the acute hospitals to a level that could threaten its survival.
authors.affiliation: Plymouth primary care trust.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Moore
mesh_terms: D001509:Bed Occupancy / Q000639:trends*; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends; D006779:Hospitals, Public / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000639:trends; D013222:State Medicine / Q000458:organization & administration; D006113:United Kingdom