title: The development of a simulation model of primary prevention strategies for coronary heart disease.
abstract: This paper describes the present state of development of a discrete-event micro-simulation model for coronary heart disease prevention. The model is intended to support health policy makers in assessing the impacts on health care resources of different primary prevention strategies. For each person, a set of times to disease events, conditional on the individual's risk factor profile, is sampled from a set of probability distributions that are derived from a new analysis of the Framingham cohort study on coronary heart disease. Methods used to model changes in behavioural and physiological risk factors are discussed and a description of the simulation logic is given. The model incorporates POST (Patient Oriented Simulation Technique) simulation routines.
authors.affiliation: hannah.babad@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: Hannah
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Babad
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sanderson
authors.forename: Bhash
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Naidoo
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: White
authors.forename: Duolao
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D011322:Primary Prevention; D012307:Risk Factors; D006113:United Kingdom