title: Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon part I. model construction and validation.
abstract: Global climate change will have direct impacts on human health, including increased mortality due to heat stress and heat waves. An empirical-statistical model for heat stress is constructed for the city of Lisbon using the June-August months of the observational period 1980-1998. The model uses the regression of an aggregate dose-response relationship between maximum temperature and excess heat-related deaths, based on the difference between observed and expected deaths. The model is validated by correlation and residual analysis. The mean annual heat-related mortality for the period 1980-1998 was between 5.4 and 6 deaths per 100,000 depending on the method used to calculate expected deaths. Both validation methods show that the model has a moderate to high accuracy in modelling heat-related deaths compared to the observed record.
authors.affiliation: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. s.dessai@uea.ac.uk
authors.forename: Suraje
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dessai
mesh_terms: D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons