title: A clinical prediction rule for classifying patients with low back pain who demonstrate short-term improvement with spinal manipulation.
abstract: METHODS
  A prospective, cohort study of patients with nonradicular low back pain referred to physical therapy.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Develop a clinical prediction rule for identifying patients with low back pain who improve with spinal manipulation.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Development of clinical prediction rules for classifying patients with low back pain who are likely to respond to a particular intervention, such as manipulation, would improve clinical decision-making and research.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with nonradicular low back pain underwent a standardized examination and then underwent a standardized spinal manipulation treatment program. Success with treatment was determined using percent change in disability scores over three sessions and served as the reference standard for determining the accuracy of examination variables. Examination variables were first analyzed for univariate accuracy in predicting success and then combined into a multivariate clinical prediction rule.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seventy-one patients participated. Thirty-two had success with the manipulation intervention. A clinical prediction rule with five variables (symptom duration, fear-avoidance beliefs, lumbar hypomobility, hip internal rotation range of motion, and no symptoms distal to the knee) was identified. The presence of four of five of these variables (positive likelihood ratio = 24.38) increased the probability of success with manipulation from 45% to 95%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It appears that patients with low back pain likely to respond to manipulation can be accurately identified before treatment.
authors.affiliation: U.S. Army-Baylor University Graduate Program in Physical Therapy, San Antonio, Texas, USA. timothy.flynn@cen.amedd.army.mil
authors.forename: Timothy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Flynn
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fritz
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Whitman
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wainner
authors.forename: Jake
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Magel
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rendeiro
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Garber
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Allison
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000145:classification / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy*; D008297:Male; D020393:Manipulation, Spinal / Q000379:methods*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D016896:Treatment Outcome