title: Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate.
abstract: In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.
authors.affiliation: Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, The University of Iowa, lowa City, Iowa 52242, USA. gcarmich@engineering.uiowa.edu
authors.forename: Gregory R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Carmichael
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Streets
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Calori
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Amann
authors.forename: Mark Z
authors.initials: MZ
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.forename: Hiromasa
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ueda
mesh_terms: D015258:Acid Rain; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D001208:Asia; D003031:Coal; D003132:Commerce; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D017745:Incineration; D007221:Industry; D011210:Power Plants; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D015258:Acid Rain; D000393:Air Pollutants; D003031:Coal; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide