Secular trends in incidence and 30-day case fatality of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark: a register-based study from 1981-2000.
BACKGROUND
The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis has been reported as having increased during recent decades in Western countries. Reported mortality lies around 10% and has improved during the past 20 years. The incidence rate and 30-day case fatality rate of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark were examined for the period 1981 to 2000.


METHODS
Data were collected from the Hospital Discharge Registry of North Jutland County for the period 1981-2000. Sex- and age-standardized incidence rates and 30-day case fatality rate of a first attack of acute pancreatitis were calculated. Data on endoscopic procedures were assessed for the period 1992 to 2000 and on certain drugs for 1991 to 1999.


RESULTS
The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis in women increased from 17.1 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.6-23.2) to 37.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 31.0-46.1). The corresponding increase in men was from 18 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% CI, 13.3-24.2) to 27.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 21.5-34.3). The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis increased with age in both sexes. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.5-8.7) increasing with age, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 6.4 (95% CI, 3.5-11.6) and decreased with time, adjusted OR = 0.7 (95% CI, 0.4-1.0).


CONCLUSIONS
The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased, and in women surpassed that in men in 1999 and 2000. Short-term prognosis has improved.
Floyd
A
A
Dept. of Clinical Epidemiology, Aalborg Hospital, Stengade 10, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark. uxanfl@aas.nja.dk
Pedersen
L
L
Nielsen
G Lauge
GL
Thorladcius-Ussing
O
O
Sorensen
H T
HT
D000208:Acute Disease; D000328:Adult; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D010351:Patient Discharge / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012737:Sex Factors; D015996:Survival Rate