[Comparison of predictive factors related to the mortality and rebleeding caused by variceal bleeding: Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Rockall score].
OBJECTIVE
The first episode of variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh(CP) scoring system has been widely accepted for prognostic assessment. Recently, MELD has been known to be better than the CP scoring system for predicting mortality in patients with end-stage liver diseases. The Rockall risk scoring system was developed to predict the outcome of upper GI bleeding including variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of first variceal bleeding and the predictability of each scoring system.


METHODS
We evaluated the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding rate, and 1-year mortality rate of all the 136 patients with acute variceal bleeding without previous episode of hemorrhage between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000. The CP score, MELD score, and Rockall score were estimated and analyzed.


RESULTS
Among 136 patients, 35 patients with hepatoma and 8 patients with follow-up loss were excluded. Six-week mortality rate, 1-year mortality rate, and rebleeding rate of first variceal bleeding were 24.7%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, respectively. The c-statistics of CP, MELD, and Rockall score for predicting 6-week mortality rate were 0.809 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.720-0.898), 0.804 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.696-0.911), 0.787 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.683-0.890), respectively. For 1-year mortality rate, c-statistics were 0.765 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.665-0.865), 0.780 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.676-0.883), 0.730 (p<0.01, 95% CI, 0.627-0.834), respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
The CP, MELD, and Rockall scores were reliable measures of mortality risk in patients with first variceal bleeding. The CP classification is useful in its easy applicability.
Lee
Ja Young
JY
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Lee
Jin Heon
JH
Kim
Soo Jin
SJ
Choi
Dae Rho
DR
Kim
Kyung Ho
KH
Kim
Yong Bum
YB
Kim
Hak Yang
HY
Yoo
Jae Young
JY
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate