title: Incidence and survival trends of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: racial and gender differences by histological type.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in White males has been reported to be increasing. The aims of this study were to determine: 1) the incidence trends of esophageal carcinoma in the United States with an emphasis on histologic type, sex, and ethnicity, 2) whether the reported increase in stage IV tumors can be confirmed, and 3) survival trends and factors affecting survival.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from the SEER program of the National Cancer Institute with submission dates 1973-98 were used. Data on Hispanics were available for analysis only for the years 1992-98. Statistical analysis was performed utilizing SEER*Stat and SAS statistical software packages.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence of adenocarcinoma in White males is still rising (7.8%/year, P < 0.0001); however, the same trend was observed for White females (6.48%/year; P < 0.0001). Hispanic males (3.91 %/year; P < 0.02), and Hispanic females (9.4%/ year; P < 0.04). The incidence of squamous cell carcinoma has been steadily declining in White males and females and in Black females since 1973, with the incidence showing a dramatic and significant decline in Black males beginning in 1992 (8.53%/year; P = 0.0009). Stage 4 carcinoma is declining in incidence. Survival of patients with esophageal carcinomas has been improving. In a Cox multivariate model, independent prognostic factors in esophageal carcinoma included tumor stage, tumor type, gender, race, age at diagnosis, and year of diagnosis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  1) The incidence of adenocarcinoma continues to rise in White males and females, but also in Hispanics, while squamous cell carcinoma is declining; 2) the incidence of stage 4 carcinomas has been declining, and 3) survival has been steadily improving, independently of all other risk factors.
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Pathology, Baylor College of Medicine, The Methodist Hospital, Houston, Texas 77030, USA. myounes@bcm.tmc.edu
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Younes
authors.forename: D E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Henson
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ertan
authors.forename: C C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Miller
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000453:epidemiology*; D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000453:epidemiology; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D044469:Racial Groups; D012737:Sex Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data