title: [Comparison of predictive factors related to the mortality and rebleeding caused by variceal bleeding: Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Rockall score].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The first episode of variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh(CP) scoring system has been widely accepted for prognostic assessment. Recently, MELD has been known to be better than the CP scoring system for predicting mortality in patients with end-stage liver diseases. The Rockall risk scoring system was developed to predict the outcome of upper GI bleeding including variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of first variceal bleeding and the predictability of each scoring system.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding rate, and 1-year mortality rate of all the 136 patients with acute variceal bleeding without previous episode of hemorrhage between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000. The CP score, MELD score, and Rockall score were estimated and analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 136 patients, 35 patients with hepatoma and 8 patients with follow-up loss were excluded. Six-week mortality rate, 1-year mortality rate, and rebleeding rate of first variceal bleeding were 24.7%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, respectively. The c-statistics of CP, MELD, and Rockall score for predicting 6-week mortality rate were 0.809 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.720-0.898), 0.804 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.696-0.911), 0.787 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.683-0.890), respectively. For 1-year mortality rate, c-statistics were 0.765 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.665-0.865), 0.780 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.676-0.883), 0.730 (p<0.01, 95% CI, 0.627-0.834), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The CP, MELD, and Rockall scores were reliable measures of mortality risk in patients with first variceal bleeding. The CP classification is useful in its easy applicability.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Ja Young
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Jin Heon
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Soo Jin
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Dae Rho
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: Kyung Ho
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Yong Bum
authors.initials: YB
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Hak Yang
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Jae Young
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Yoo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate