title: Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible?
abstract: Progress in understanding the evolution of infectious diseases has inspired proposals to manage the evolution of pathogen (including parasite) virulence. A common view is that social interventions that lower pathogen transmission will indirectly select lower virulence because of a trade-off between transmission and virulence. Here, we argue that there is little theoretical justification and no empirical evidence for this plan. Although a trade-off model might apply to some pathogens, the mechanism appears too weak for rapid selection of substantial changes in virulence. Direct selection against virulence itself might be a more rewarding approach to managing the evolution of virulence.
authors.affiliation: Ecologie et évolution, Département de biologie, Université de Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 10, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Dieter
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ebert
authors.forename: James J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Bull
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001419:Bacteria / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D022761:Gene Transfer, Horizontal; D006790:Host-Parasite Interactions; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010271:Parasites / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D014774:Virulence; D014780:Viruses / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity