title: Kidney transplantation in the elderly: a decision analysis.
abstract: Transplantation offers superior life expectancy and quality of life compared with dialysis in young patients with end-stage renal failure. However, the initial risks of mortality and morbidity are high. This study used a decision analysis model to evaluate the costs and benefits of kidney transplantation versus continued dialysis for older patients with renal failure. A decision analytic model comparing cadaveric renal transplantation to continued hemodialysis treatment was developed. The base case considered a theoretical cohort of patients aged 65 yr without known comorbidity or contraindications to transplantation who would have to wait 2 yr for a cadaveric transplant. Separate models were constructed for patients with diabetes or cardiovascular disease and for patients receiving an organ after a variety of wait-list times. Probability, utility, and survival data were obtained from published reports and renal registries. For 65-yr-old patients, quality-adjusted life expectancy increased by 1.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) at an incremental cost of $67,778 per QALY. Assuming a 2-yr wait-listed time, transplantation remained economically attractive for 70-yr-old patients (incremental cost effectiveness [ICE], $79,359 per QALY) but was less economically attractive for those over 75 yr of age (ICE, $99,553) or for 70-yr-olds with either cardiovascular disease or diabetes (ICE, $126,751 and $161,090 per QALY, respectively). The analytic results were sensitive only to the time spent waiting for the graft. The cost-effectiveness reduced such that the costs associated with one QALY were in excess of $100,000/yr when the probability of a complication was > or = 50% per 3-mo cycle and when the utility of transplantation fell below 0.62. If available within a timely period, transplantation may offer substantial clinical benefits to older patients at a reasonable financial cost. Prolonged waiting times dramatically decrease the clinical benefits and economic attractiveness of transplantation, suggesting that living donor transplantation may be of particular benefit in this population.
authors.affiliation: Division of Nephrology, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. vanita.jassal@uhn.on.ca
authors.forename: Sarbjit V
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Jassal
authors.forename: Murray D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Krahn
authors.forename: Gary
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Naglie
authors.forename: Jeffrey S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Zaltzman
authors.forename: Janet M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Roscoe
authors.forename: Edward H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Cole
authors.forename: Donald A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Redelmeier
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D016030:Kidney Transplantation / Q000191:economics; D008017:Life Expectancy; D011788:Quality of Life; D006435:Renal Dialysis; D013997:Time Factors; D014850:Waiting Lists