title: Predictors of short-term functional decline in survivors of nursing home-acquired lower respiratory tract infection.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Scant information exists about the risk of functional decline following treatment of acute illness in the nursing home (NH) setting. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of short-term (30-day) functional decline among survivors of NH-acquired lower respiratory tract infection (LRI) and the factors that predict such decline, including the role of initial hospitalization.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a prospective cohort design to study 781 episodes of LRI in 1044 NH residents in 36 NHs in central Missouri and the St. Louis metropolitan area. Functional decline was defined as a 3-point increase on the Minimum Data Set (MDS) activities of daily living (ADL) long form scale.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 781 LRI cases who survived to 30 days, the incidence of ADL decline was 28.8%. In a logistic regression model that used generalized estimating equations to adjust for clustering, variables associated with ADL decline included the following: chronic feeding tube use (AOR = 4.54, 95% confidence interval, or CI, 1.61, 12.80), decubitus ulcer (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.29, 95% CI 1.35, 3.90), shortness of breath (AOR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.44, 3.30), short-term memory problems (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.33, 3.23), decline in self-performance of toilet use in the 24 hours prior to evaluation (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.29, 2.12), age (AOR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.05), and baseline ADL score. Addition of treatment variables to the model showed that initial hospitalization was also associated with ADL decline (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20, 3.00). Residents with ADL decline at 30 days were less likely to recover to their baseline ADL status at 90 days.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Many NH residents who survive to 30 days following LRI develop new functional limitations, and such individuals are at risk for ADL decline at 90 days. A limited number of clinical variables may predict short-term functional decline. Initial hospitalization for acute treatment of LRI may increase the risk of subsequent ADL decline among individuals who survive to 30 days.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA. ebinder@im.wustl.edu
authors.forename: Ellen F
authors.initials: EF
authors.lastname: Binder
authors.forename: Robin L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Kruse
authors.forename: Ashley K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Sherman
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Madsen
authors.forename: Steven C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Zweig
authors.forename: Ralph
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: D'Agostino
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Mehr
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D017714:Community-Acquired Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006707:Homes for the Aged; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008923:Missouri / Q000453:epidemiology; D009735:Nursing Homes; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D017741:Survivors; D013997:Time Factors