title: Development of a scale to predict decline in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a scale that can assist in predicting likelihood of decline from mild dementia over 1 year in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  University Memory and Aging Center.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with probable or possible AD and Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) of 1 at baseline, divided into development and validation cohorts (n = 118 each).
  
  
  METHODS
  The CDR and neurological and neuropsychological assessments were given at baseline and 1 year later.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the development cohort, high education, low Mini-Mental State Examination score, poor insight, psychotic symptoms, and greater activity of daily living impairment predicted decline in CDR from 1 to 2 or 3. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis identified cutoff scores that maximized sensitivity and specificity for each significant predictor of decline. Based on the cutoff, raw scores were recoded to reflect risk for decline, weighted, and summed to create a final scale score. ROC curve analysis established a cutoff to indicate risk for decline on the final scale score. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC were 0.76, 0.74, and 0.83 in the development cohort and 0.77, 0.69, and 0.80 in the validation cohort, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 0.71 and 0.78 in the development cohort and 0.68 and 0.78 in the validation cohort, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Decline from mild to moderate or severe impairment represents significant clinical change, with implications for patient and caregiver quality of life and treatment options. The clinical scale developed uses data to enhance prediction about change from mild to moderate or severe stages of AD.
authors.affiliation: University Memory and Aging Center, University Hospitals of Cleveland, and Department of Neurology, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio 44120, USA. cex14@po.cwru.edu
authors.forename: Concepcion E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Santillan
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Fritsch
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Geldmacher
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies