title: Development of a predictive index for picornavirus infections.
abstract: To create a clinical prediction index that aids in the diagnosis of picornavirus respiratory infections, we analyzed patients from 5 clinical trials designed to evaluate the efficacy of an antiviral treatment for respiratory infections. Logistic regression was used to determine which baseline symptoms and patient characteristics best predicted picornavirus infection. Parameter estimates were then used to create a predictive index for estimating the probability of picornavirus infection on the basis of cold symptoms. The presence at baseline of rhinorrhea (odds ratio [OR], 2.73), nasal congestion (OR, 1.63), and sore throat (OR, 1.37) increased the likelihood of picornavirus infection; the presence of myalgia (OR, 0.71) and fever (OR, 0.59) decreased the likelihood. The positive and negative predictive values of the model were 61.5% and 64.4%, respectively. The model was simplified for clinical use by creating a whole-number index: the lowest possible score (-3) indicates a 15% chance of picornavirus infection and the highest (7) indicates a 69% chance of picornavirus infection.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA. asmonto@umich.edu
authors.forename: Arnold S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Monto
authors.forename: Thomas J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Bramley
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sarnes
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010850:Picornaviridae Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests