Risk functions for prediction of cardiovascular disease in elderly Australians: the Dubbo Study.
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate a Framingham risk function for coronary heart disease in an elderly Australian cohort and to derive a risk function for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Australians.


METHODS
Analysis of data from a prospective cohort study (the Dubbo Study) in a semi-urban town (population, 34 000).


METHODS
2805 men and women 60 years and older living in the community, first assessed in 1988, and a subcohort of 2102 free of CVD at study entry.


METHODS
Incidence of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke) over 5 and 10 years.


RESULTS
A Framingham risk function assessing "hard" coronary heart disease (ie, myocardial infarction or coronary death) accurately predicted 10-year incidence in men and women aged 60-79 years who were free of prevalent CVD or diabetes at study entry. In a multiple logistic model, CVD incidence was significantly predicted by age, sex, taking antihypertensive medication, blood pressure, smoking, total cholesterol level and diabetes. For a given age and cholesterol level, CVD risk over 5 years was doubled in the presence of antihypertensive medication or diabetes, increased by 50% with cigarette smoking, and halved in women compared with men.


CONCLUSIONS
We have derived a simple CVD risk function specifically for elderly Australians that employs risk factors readily accessible to all medical practitioners.
Simons
Leon A
LA
University of New South Wales Lipid Research Department, St Vincent's Hospital, Darlinghurst, NSW 2010, Australia. L.Simons@notes.med.unsw.edu.au
Simons
Judith
J
Friedlander
Yechiel
Y
McCallum
John
J
Palaniappan
Latha
L
D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000009:adverse effects; D015331:Cohort Studies; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D005260:Female; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology
D000959:Antihypertensive Agents; D002784:Cholesterol