title: The changing world demography of type 2 diabetes.
abstract: In recent years it has been estimated that the current global prevalence of type 2 diabetes amounts to about 150 million patients. Projections suggest that by the year 2025 the number of prevalent patients in the world will reach approximately 300 million. It is assumed that the increase in the number of patients will be most pronounced in nations currently undergoing socio-economic development including increasing urbanization. The technique used to provide these estimates is based on results from available, contemporary survey results, combined with expected future trends in demographic indicators. We suggest that the currently available methods for the estimation of the future global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus yield underestimates. Further modifications and validity tests of the modelling techniques are necessary in order to develop a reliable instrument to globally monitor the effects of the struggle against the diabetes problem.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Aarhus, Arhus, Denmark. ag@soci.au.dk
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Green
authors.forename: Niels
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Christian Hirsch
authors.forename: Stig Krøger
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Pramming
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003710:Demography; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D014507:Urbanization