title: [Application of multifactor spatial composite model to predict transmission tendency of malaria at national level].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level by application of geographic information system(GIS) technique.
  
  
  METHODS
  With the assistance of ArcView 3.0 a software and its spatial analyst extension, the surface spatial analysis on three natural factors, namely, total growing degree days(TGDD), precipitation and relative humidity, were conducted individually. The map calculation was preformed based on the three factors' ratio of 5:3:2 resulted from the Delphi investigation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The individual maps and composition map of TGDD, precipitation and relative humidity were created, respectively, based on the spatial composite model, which were used to predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The high risk areas for malaria transmission, predicted by the spatial composite model based on the multilayers of environmental factors, are correlated with the previous reports. This will, therefore, provide information for predicting malaria transmission by multiple factors in a larger area.
authors.affiliation: Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214064.
authors.forename: Guo-jing
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Xiao-nong
authors.initials: XN
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: J B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Malone
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: McCarroll
authors.forename: Tian-ping
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Jian-xiang
authors.initials: JX
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological