[Application of multifactor spatial composite model to predict transmission tendency of malaria at national level].
OBJECTIVE
To predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level by application of geographic information system(GIS) technique.


METHODS
With the assistance of ArcView 3.0 a software and its spatial analyst extension, the surface spatial analysis on three natural factors, namely, total growing degree days(TGDD), precipitation and relative humidity, were conducted individually. The map calculation was preformed based on the three factors' ratio of 5:3:2 resulted from the Delphi investigation.


RESULTS
The individual maps and composition map of TGDD, precipitation and relative humidity were created, respectively, based on the spatial composite model, which were used to predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level.


CONCLUSIONS
The high risk areas for malaria transmission, predicted by the spatial composite model based on the multilayers of environmental factors, are correlated with the previous reports. This will, therefore, provide information for predicting malaria transmission by multiple factors in a larger area.
Yang
Guo-jing
GJ
Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214064.
Zhou
Xiao-nong
XN
Malone
J B
JB
McCarroll
J C
JC
Wang
Tian-ping
TP
Liu
Jian-xiang
JX
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological