title: Predicting disease outcome of non-invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder using an artificial neural network model: results of patient follow-up for 15 years or longer.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Patients with non-invasive (Ta/T1) transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary bladder are often observed without progression in the long-term follow-up period, although many of them experience recurrence of disease. It is difficult to accurately predict the disease outcome of each patient with Ta/T1 TCC using conventional prognostic criteria. In this study, we examined the usefulness of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the long-term disease outcome of patients with TCC of the urinary bladder.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective, prognostic study of 90 patients with Ta/T1 TCC of the urinary bladder, diagnosed by transurethral resection of the bladder tumor between April 1981 and March 1985, and then followed up for 15 years or longer, was carried out. Data were analyzed using the Bayesian network tool of SPSS Neural Connection 2.1. The input neural data consisted of tumor stage, grade, tumor number, age, gender, tumor architecture and estimates of mean nuclear volume. The data set was randomly divided into 68 training and 22 testing examples for the prediction of disease progression and tumor recurrence within 15 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During 15 years follow-up, tumor recurrence was noted in 42/90 (47%) Ta/T1 tumors. The ANN model could not predict tumor recurrence. Conversely, disease progression was noted in 17/90 (19%) Ta/T1 tumors, and, in the test set, 4/22 (18%) Ta/T1 tumors underwent disease progression. The sensitivity of the ANN model to predict progression was 100% (specificity 67%; positive predictive value 40%; negative predictive value 100%). Patients who were judged to have a favorable prognosis using ANN analysis did not progress within the 15-year follow-up period.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of the ANN study indicate that long-term progression-free survival of patients with non-invasive TCC of the urinary bladder can be precisely predicted. A favorable prognosis using ANNs would be one of the exclusion criteria for immediate or future total cystectomy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Shiga Medical Center for Adults, Shiga, Japan. PS5K-FJKW@asahi-net.or.jp
authors.forename: Keita
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fujikawa
authors.forename: Yoshiyuki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Matsui
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.forename: Katsuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Miura
authors.forename: Hiroya
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Oka
authors.forename: Shigeki
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fukuzawa
authors.forename: Miharu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sasaki
authors.forename: Hideo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Takeuchi
authors.forename: Tatsushiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Okabe
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002295:Carcinoma, Transitional Cell / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000175:diagnosis*; D009367:Neoplasm Staging / Q000379:methods; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D001743:Urinary Bladder / Q000473:pathology; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy