An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability.
A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.
Koehler
Derek J
DJ
Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Ont., N2L 3G1, Waterloo, Canada. dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca
White
Chris M
CM
Grondin
Ray
R
D003463:Cues; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011338:Probability Theory