title: Real-time modelling of influenza outbreaks--a linear regression analysis.
abstract: Seasonal outbreaks of influenza exert a considerable burden on health services, and are notorious for their variability from year to year. Making use of historical data from the Scottish sentinelle surveillance since 1972, a potential candidate model has been derived based on simple linear regression. It was applied with a measure of success in the 1999-2000 winter season.
authors.affiliation: Scottish Centre for Infection & Environmental Health, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Mooney
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Holmes
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Christie
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016014:Linear Models; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons