title: Pretreatment predictors of time to cancer specific death after prostate specific antigen failure.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Whether pretreatment factors that predict for time to prostate specific antigen (PSA) failure also predict for time to prostate cancer specific death after PSA failure for patients with competing causes of mortality treated during the PSA era was the subject of this study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Of 415 men with a median age of 73 years who underwent external beam radiation therapy between 1988 and 2001 for clinically localized prostate cancer 160 (39%) experienced PSA failure and 96 (23%) died. In 46 men (48%) the cause of death was prostate cancer. Cox regression multivariable analyses (multivariable analysis) were performed to evaluate the ability of the pretreatment PSA and centrally reviewed biopsy Gleason score to predict time to prostate cancer specific death after PSA failure.
  
  
  RESULTS
  When analyzed as categorical variables using multivariable analysis, biopsy Gleason score 4 + 3 (p = 0.02), 8 to 10 (p = 0.02) disease and a pretreatment PSA greater than 20 ng./ml. (p = 0.03) were significant predictors of time to prostate cancer specific death after PSA failure. Estimates of prostate cancer specific death 5 years after PSA failure were 24%, 40% and 59% (p = 0.01) for patients with a biopsy Gleason score < or = 6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3 or higher and 22%, 40% and 60% (p = 0.04) for patients with a pretreatment PSA of 10 or less, greater than 10 and 20 or less, or greater than 20 ng./ml., respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Patients at high risk for PSA failure after radiation therapy based on pretreatment PSA greater than 20 ng./ml. or biopsy Gleason score 4 + 3 or greater are also at high risk for death from prostate cancer after PSA failure despite competing causes of mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
authors.forename: Anthony V
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: D'Amico
authors.forename: Kerri
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cote
authors.forename: Marian
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Loffredo
authors.forename: Andrew A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Renshaw
authors.forename: Ming-Hui
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000097:blood*; D001706:Biopsy; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011467:Prostate / Q000473:pathology; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy; D012306:Risk; D017211:Treatment Failure
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen