title: Cost-effectiveness of primary prevention of coronary heart disease through risk factor intervention in 60-year-old men from the county of Stockholm--a stochastic model of exercise and dietary advice.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Recent screenings show a high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the county of Stockholm. Primary prevention may be a way to lower the risk burden of coronary heart disease, but we must establish that preventive programs are cost-effective.
  
  
  METHODS
  Through the use of a stochastic Markov model, which predicts reduction in coronary heart disease events based on risk factor reductions, this study evaluates the results of a previous controlled trial in middle-aged men comparing dietary advice, exercise, and the combination of both applied to an observed cohort of 60-year-old men in the county of Stockholm.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model predicts lower costs and higher effectiveness for dietary advice compared to the alternatives. Assuming a declining effect of the intervention, dietary advice saves 0.0228 life-years compared to no intervention. If no decline is assumed, the corresponding figure is 0.0997 life-years. From the societal perspective, the added costs are 2,892 Swedish Kronor (SEK) and 14,106 SEK for the two modeling assumptions, resulting in a cost-effectiveness of 127,065 SEK per life-year gained (LYG) and 141,555 SEK/LYG. These figures are below what is generally thought of as cost-effective.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on the model, dietary advice appears to be the most cost-effective of the studied interventions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. Peter.Lindgren@imm.ki.se
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lindgren
authors.forename: Per
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Fahlstadius
authors.forename: Mai-Lis
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Hellenius
authors.forename: Bengt
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jönsson
authors.forename: Ulf
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: de Faire
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D015444:Exercise; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010043:Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care; D010353:Patient Education as Topic / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods; D011322:Primary Prevention / Q000191:economics*; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012307:Risk Factors; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013548:Sweden