title: Low back pain as a predictor of long-term work disability.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate low back pain (LBP), with and without other musculoskeletal pains, as a predictor of long-term work disability.
  
  
  METHODS
  A four-year prospective study was conducted. All inhabitants in the municipality of Ullensaker, Norway, born in 1928-30, 1938-40, 1948-50, 1958-60 and 1968-70, received a mailed questionnaire in 1990 and 1994. The present study comprised the 1.788 responders who were working in 1990. Of these, 1426 (80%) returned the questionnaire four years later. The main outcome measure was long-term work disability (>eight weeks) in 1994.
  
  
  RESULTS
  LBP in 1990 predicted long-term work disability in 1994 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-2.74). Localized LBP however, did not predict long-term work disability, while LBP accompanied by widespread pain did (OR = 3.52, 95% CI = 1.09-11.37), also after adjustments for demographic, lifestyle, and work-related factors. Other predictors of long-term work disability were high age, sick leave last year, heavy lifting in the job, poor sleep quality and smoking.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  LBP in persons with widespread musculoskeletal pain predicted long-term work disability, while localized LBP did not.
authors.affiliation: University of Oslo, Institute of General Practice and Community Medicine, Oslo, Norway. bard.natvig@samfunnsmed.uio.no
authors.forename: Bård
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Natvig
authors.forename: Willy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Eriksen
authors.forename: Dag
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bruusgaard
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D017533:Marital Status; D008875:Middle Aged; D009664:Norway / Q000453:epidemiology; D017678:Sex Distribution; D018582:Sick Leave / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D013995:Time; D016526:Workload