title: Demographic development of the middle Dalmatian coast and simulation of trends in population density by the LOPI model.
abstract: Demographic development of middle Dalmatian settlements: Jesenice, Mimice, Zivogosće and Zaostrog was followed during the period between 1857 and 1991. On the basis of the analysis, we can conclude that the positive trends in the number of residents were interrupted during the first decades of the 20th century, while the stagnation and decrease of the total number of residents prevailed during the following period. In other words, depopulation was established as a stable demographic process. Population's gender structure was uniform during the rolls in 1971, 1981 and 1991 in all four settlements. During the same period, the age structure of the population showed that the older residents prevailed over younger residents (prereproductive and repoductive population) in all four settlements (Jesenice, Mimice, Zivogosće and Zaostrog). Furthermore, all settlements belonged to the regressive or stationary types of age structure (neither belonging to the progressive type). We have used the LOPI model for the mathematical modeling of demographic processes of the middle Dalmatian population. On the basis of the LOPI model the results show very good accordance between the simulated data and actual values in the settlements of Zivogosće and Zaostrog. The settlements of Jesenice and Mimice showed also very good accordance between the simulated data and actual values, but only until 1920 (Jesenice) and 1910 (Mimice) year.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Anthropological Research, Zagreb, Croatia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malnar
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Vilicić
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Jovanović
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000884:Anthropology, Cultural; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D017523:Croatia; D005260:Female; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D012098:Reproduction