A clinical prediction rule for nerve function impairment in leprosy patients-revisited after 5 years of follow-up.
Nerve function impairment (NFI) commonly occurs during or after chemotherapy in leprosy. We previously described a clinical prediction rule to estimate the risk of NFI occurring within 2 years of diagnosis, based on 2510 patients who are followed up in the Bangladesh Acute Nerve Damage Study (BANDS). This prediction rule assigns new leprosy patients to one of three risk groups based on leprosy group and the presence or absence of NFI at registration. Updated data with up to 5 years of follow-up showed that 95% of all NFI occurred within 2 years. This study confirms the validity of the rule and supports the conclusion that there is little value for the detection of NFI in extending follow-up beyond 2 years.
Croft
Richard P
RP
Danish Bangladesh Leprosy Mission, Nilphamari, Bangladesh. richard@crofts32.freeserve.co.uk
Nicholls
Peter G
PG
Steyerberg
Ewout W
EW
Richardus
Jan H
JH
Withington
Steven G
SG
Smith
W Cairns S
WC
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D004576:Electromyography; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007917:Leprostatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D007918:Leprosy / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009431:Neural Conduction; D010523:Peripheral Nervous System Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017678:Sex Distribution
D007917:Leprostatic Agents