title: Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics.
abstract: A dynamic model of risky behavior in the midst of an epidemic is discussed. The key result is that pessimistic expectations over the future of the epidemic induce more current risky behavior. Numerical simulation of equilibrium epidemics shows that this effect can accelerate spread of the disease in an epidemic's early stages and that the effect of policy interventions, such as preventative vaccines, may depend on whether the intervention was anticipated.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alta., Canada T2N 1N4. auld@ucalgary.ca
authors.forename: M Christopher
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Auld
mesh_terms: D016915:AIDS Vaccines; D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*; D001294:Attitude to Health; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005544:Forecasting; D018451:Homosexuality, Male / Q000523:psychology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009042:Motivation; D009341:Negativism; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior; D012309:Risk-Taking; D021841:Safe Sex / Q000523:psychology*; D012495:San Francisco / Q000453:epidemiology; D012747:Sexual Partners / Q000523:psychology; D014611:Vaccination / Q000523:psychology
chemical_list: D016915:AIDS Vaccines