Stochastic modelling of human exposure to food chemicals and nutrients within the "Montecarlo" project: an exploration of the influence of brand loyalty and market share on intake estimates of intense sweeteners from sugar-free soft drinks.
To get a more realistic view of exposure to food chemicals, risk managers are getting more interested in stochastic modelling as an alternative to deterministic approaches based on conservative assumptions. It allows to take into account all the available information in the concentration of the chemical present in foods and in food consumption patterns. Within the EC-funded "Montecarlo" project, a comprehensive set of mathematical algorithms was developed to take into account all the necessary components for stochastic modelling of a variety of food chemicals, nutrients and ingredients. An appropriate computer software is being developed. Since the concentration of food chemicals may vary among different brands of the same product, consumer behaviour with respect to brands may have an impact on exposure assessments. Numeric experiments were carried out on different ways of incorporating indicators of market share and brand loyalty in the mathematical algorithms developed within the stochastic model of exposure to intense sweeteners from sugar-free beverages. The 95th percentiles of intake were shown to vary according to the inclusion/exclusion of these indicators. The market share should be included in the model especially if the market is not equitably distributed between brands. If brand loyalty data are not available, the model may be run under theoretical scenarios.
Leclercq
Catherine
C
INRAN, National Research Institute for Food and Nutrition, Via Ardeatina 546, 00178, Rome, Italy. leclerq@inran.it
Arcella
Davide
D
Le Donne
Cinzia
C
Piccinelli
Raffaela
R
Sette
Stefania
S
Soggiu
Maria Eleonora
ME
D000465:Algorithms; D001628:Beverages; D005060:Europe; D005503:Food Additives / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006801:Humans; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013549:Sweetening Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*
D005503:Food Additives; D013549:Sweetening Agents