title: A graphical model for the evaluation of cross-transfer evidence in DNA profiles.
abstract: The role of graphical models in the assessment of transfer evidence is described with particular reference to the role of cross-transfer evidence. The issues involved in the determination of factors (nodes), associations (links) and probabilities to be included are discussed. Four types of subjective probabilities are of particular interest: those for transfer, persistence and recovery; innocent acquisition; relevance; innocent presence. Examples are given to illustrate the roles of various aspects of the suspect's and victim's lifestyle and the investigation of the evidence found on the suspect and victim in assessing the probability of ultimate issue, that the suspect committed the crime.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics, The University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, Scotland, UK. c.g.g.aitken@ed.ac.uk
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Aitken
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Taroni
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Garbolino
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003418:Criminology / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016172:DNA Fingerprinting / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005554:Forensic Medicine / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical