title: A myth exposed: fast growth in diameter does not justify precocious abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  fast growth of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) diameter is claimed to be an indication for repair. We investigated the validity of this claim.
  
  
  METHODS
  between January 1988 and October 2000, 277 patients have had duplex sonography at six-monthly intervals in our aneurysm surveillance programme. During this period fast AAA growth was not an indication for operation in our unit.
  
  
  RESULTS
  we identified 63 patients whose aneurysms had grown 0.5 cm or more in 6 months. Thirty-one of the 63 patients had aneurysms measuring 5.5 cm or greater in anterior-posterior diameter after the fast growth and all have been operated on unless deemed not fit due to anaesthetic risk. The remaining 32 patients continued in surveillance for a total of 50 patient years and none had rupture of their aneurysm. The calculated 95% confidence interval for the risk of rupture was 0-6 per 100 patient years. Six patients, who would have been operated on if fast growth had been an indication, have been spared surgery of whom 3 died and 3 became unfit. Nine patients remained in surveillance at the end of the study.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  our data support the view that rapid increase in AAA diameter is not an indication for elective AAA repair.
authors.affiliation: Nuffield Department of Surgery, University of Oxford, John Radcliffe Hospital, Headington, Oxford OX3 9DU, UK.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Sharp
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Collin
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000601:surgery; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D014463:Ultrasonography