title: Prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after aortic valve replacement in patients with aortic stenosis: identification of potential risk factors.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent complication after cardiac surgery. The study aim was to identify preoperative predictors of risk for this condition in patients with aortic stenosis after aortic valve replacement.
  
  
  METHODS
  The influence of clinical, echocardiographic and 24 h electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters on episodes of paroxysmal AF after aortic valve replacement (AVR) in 423 patients (156 women, 267 men; mean age 58 +/- 10 years) with aortic stenosis was analyzed. Episodes of postoperative paroxysmal AF were noted in 120 patients (28%).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Univariate analyses identified the following variables as risk factors for arrhythmia: age, NYHA functional class, history of preoperative paroxysmal AF, left ventricular mass index, >300 supraventricular beats on 24h ECG before surgery, presence of supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), SVT of >5 beats or with a rate >120 beats/min. Concomitant coronary artery bypass (CABG) grafting and presence of enlarged left atrium had no impact. By multivariate analysis, four variables were identified as independent predictors: age (odds ratio 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.1); history of paroxysmal AF (OR 3.2; CI 1.4-7.3); presence of >300 supraventricular beats/24 h (OR 1.9; CI 1.1-3.4); and presence of SVT (OR 2.1; CI 1.3-3.4). Discriminatory analysis revealed that a model comprising these four parameters enabled risk prediction in 68% of patients.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients with isolated aortic stenosis, age, past history of paroxysmal AF episodes, >300 supraventricular beats/24 h and presence of SVT during 24 h before AVR were predictors of postoperative paroxysmal AF episodes. Left atrial diameter and simultaneous CABG during AVR did not influence the likelihood of postoperative paroxysmal AF.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw, Poland.
authors.forename: Ewa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Orlowska-Baranowska
authors.forename: Rafa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Baranowski
authors.forename: Piotr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Michalek
authors.forename: Piotr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hoffman
authors.forename: Tomasz
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Rywik
authors.forename: Irena
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Rawczylska-Englert
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001021:Aortic Valve / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery; D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000601:surgery*; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D018880:Atrial Premature Complexes / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D004452:Echocardiography; D015716:Electrocardiography, Ambulatory; D005260:Female; D006325:Heart Atria / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology; D006339:Heart Rate / Q000502:physiology; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation; D006352:Heart Ventricles / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013318:Stroke Volume / Q000502:physiology; D016896:Treatment Outcome