[Increasing life expectancy--the big social issue of the 21st century?].
Due to the combined effects of a persistent low birth rate, the forthcoming retirement of the "baby-boom generation" and an increasing life expectancy, the German system of "social security" will face severe challenges in the coming decades. The foreseeable doubling of the ratio between pensioners and employees by 2050 would cause a strong increase in social security contributions and taxes for the "pay-as-you-go"-financed pension system. In addition, the expected tripling of highly aged people would increase the public expenditures for health care and nursing care of elder people, which also have to be financed by the future working generations. In order to lessen the increasing burden on future generations, social reforms are necessary soon. If these are not performed, the distributional conflict between young and old people could become worse over the forthcoming decades.
Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Postfach 3931, 90020 Nürnberg, Germany. scherl@wiso.uni-erlangen.de
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D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012943:Social Security / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*