Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Lipsitch
Marc
M
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Cohen
Ted
T
Cooper
Ben
B
Robins
James M
JM
Ma
Stefan
S
James
Lyn
L
Gopalakrishna
Gowri
G
Chew
Suok Kai
SK
Tan
Chorh Chuan
CC
Samore
Matthew H
MH
Fisman
David
D
Murray
Megan
M
D016358:Contact Tracing; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010356:Patient Isolation; D011336:Probability; D015980:Public Health Practice; D011790:Quarantine; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D012846:Singapore / Q000453:epidemiology; D013269:Stochastic Processes