A method to guide community planning and evaluation efforts in tobacco control using data on smoking during pregnancy.
BACKGROUND
Effective community based tobacco control programmes are critical for state and nationwide impact. However, there is little discussion in the literature of methods for setting local objectives which use locally collected data and account for historical variation in progress.


OBJECTIVE
To develop and illustrate a method that uses locally available birth certificate data to model trends in tobacco use during pregnancy among women giving birth, predict future prevalence, and use predictions to set community specific tobacco control objectives.


METHODS
Vital statistics. Wisconsin standard birth certificates, 1990-2000, which record the smoking status of the mother during pregnancy.


METHODS
Trends in the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy in Wisconsin statewide and in all counties (n = 72) were modelled using linear regression of log prevalence on year. Model fit was assessed using R(2). Regression slopes, indicating estimated relative annual percentage change in prevalence, were used to predict prevalence in 2005, and objectives were calculated as a 20% reduction from the predicted prevalence in 2005.


CONCLUSIONS
Modelling trends in the prevalence of smoking using locally collected data enables communities to set reasonable future tobacco control objectives that account for historical trends in progress.
Newburn
V H
VH
Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53726, USA. vnewburn@wisc.edu
Remington
P L
PL
Peppard
P E
PE
D018672:Community Health Planning / Q000458:organization & administration; D003153:Community Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D011247:Pregnancy; D011248:Pregnancy Complications / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015995:Prevalence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000639:trends; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D014922:Wisconsin / Q000453:epidemiology