Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection.
The persistence of Influenza A in the human population relies on continual changes in the viral surface antigens allowing the virus to reinfect the same hosts every few years. The epidemiology of such a drifting virus is modeled by a discrete season-to-season map. During the epidemic season only one strain is present and its transmission dynamics follows a standard epidemic model. After the season, cross-immunity to next year's virus is determined from the proportion of hosts that were infected during the season. A partial analysis of this map shows the existence of oscillations where epidemics occur at regular or irregular intervals.
Andreasen
Viggo
V
Department of Mathematics and Physics, Roskilde University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. viggo@ruc.dk
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000276:immunology* / Q000472:pathogenicity; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D010507:Periodicity; D012621:Seasons; D013045:Species Specificity