Prediction of transition from cognitive impairment to senile dementia: a prospective, longitudinal study.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this investigation was to replicate the statistical approach used in a previous investigation (Toronto study) within a French population to determine the best predictive model for Alzheimer's disease (AD).


METHODS
Data from neuropsychological tests from two prospective studies were entered into a regression model.


RESULTS
Replication of the statistical approach in the Montpellier sample produced a three-test model with a specificity of 99% and sensitivity of 73%. This model consisted of a delayed auditory verbal recall test, a construction test, a category fluency test and provides probability estimates for the transition to dementia in individual cases.


CONCLUSIONS
The models derived from these two longitudinal studies provide an empirical basis for the selection of tests for the definition of mild cognitive impairment of the Alzheimer type (MCI-A). The small set of tests derived are suitable for use in general practice.
Artero
S
S
French National Institute of Health and Medical Research, INSERM EMI 9930 Epidemiology of Nervous System Pathologies, Montpellier, France. artero@montp.inserm.fr
Tierney
M C
MC
Touchon
J
J
Ritchie
K
K
D000328:Adult; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis*; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008569:Memory Disorders / Q000150:complications; D008875:Middle Aged; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D009864:Ontario; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors