title: Plaque blush, branch location, and calcification are angiographic predictors of progression of mild to moderate coronary stenoses.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Angiographic predictors of plaque progression are weak and few: length, irregular surface, turbulence, low shear, and (in some studies) eccentricity and calcification. Having noted plaques that briefly retained dye after angiography, we interpreted these as plaques with a fissured surface or neovascularization and hypothesized that progression would be predicted by "plaque blush."
  
  
  METHODS
  Plaques (<50% diameter stenosis) in 68 pairs of angiograms, 5.6 +/- 4.8 months apart, were reviewed by 2 blinded observers. The presence of plaque blush, calcification, clot (mobile defect), eccentricity, and a branch point location were compared between progressing (> or =20% stenosis increase) and nonprogressing plaques.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sixteen lesions in 15 patients progressed from 29% +/- 13% to 68% +/- 14% over a period of 8.1 +/- 7.9 months. Patients with and without progression were similar in sex, age, congestive heart disease risk factors, medications, interval between angiograms, clinical presentation, and initial stenosis severity. By logistic regression, plaque blush (BL) (P =.002), calcification (CA) (P =.024), and a branch (BR) point location (P =.001) predicted plaque progression. The odds ratio for plaque progression (ORp) was calculated as ORp = e(2.5 x BL + 1.8 x CA + 2.6 x BR). Using an ORp of 1/3, the model has 81% sensitivity and 77% specificity. A second analysis in which each progressive lesion was compared with proximal and distal lesions and with one in a different coronary artery yielded similar results.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In mild to moderate coronary stenoses, studied retrospectively, plaque blush (a new sign) and a branch point location were strong predictors of plaque progression, whereas calcification was a weak predictor of progression.
authors.affiliation: University of Texas-Houston Health Science Center, and Texas Heart Institute, Houston, Tex, USA. S.Ward.Casscells@uth.tmc.edu
authors.forename: Ward
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Casscells
authors.forename: Khaled
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hassan
authors.forename: Moein F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Vaseghi
authors.forename: Mir Said
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Siadaty
authors.forename: Morteza
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Naghavi
authors.forename: Richard L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Kirkeeide
authors.forename: Mohammad R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Hassan
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Madjid
mesh_terms: D002114:Calcinosis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000473:pathology; D017023:Coronary Angiography; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000473:pathology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D012189:Retrospective Studies