title: N-losses and energy use in a scenario for conversion to organic farming.
abstract: The aims of organic farming include the recycling of nutrients and organic matter and the minimisation of the environmental impact of agriculture. Reduced nitrogen (N)-losses and energy (E)-use are therefore fundamental objectives of conversion to organic farming. However, the case is not straightforward, and different scenarios for conversion to organic farming might lead to reduced or increased N-losses and E-use. This paper presents a scenario tool that uses a Geographical Information System in association with models for crop rotations, fertilisation practices, N-losses, and E-uses. The scenario tool has been developed within the multidisciplinary research project Land Use and Landscape Development Illustrated with Scenarios (ARLAS). A pilot scenario was carried out, where predicted changes in N-losses and E-uses following conversion to organic farming in areas with special interests in clean groundwater were compared. The N-surplus and E-use were on average reduced by 10 and 54%, respectively. However, these reductions following the predicted changes in crop rotations, livestock densities, and fertilisation practices were not large enough to ensure a statistically significant reduction at the 95% level. We therefore recommend further research in how conversion to organic farming or other changes in the agricultural practice might help to reduce N-surpluses and E-uses. In that context, the presented scenario tool would be useful.
authors.affiliation: Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Agricultural Systems, Tjele, Denmark. tommy.dalgaard@agrsci.dk
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Dalgaard
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kjeldsen
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Hutchings
authors.forename: J F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Hansen
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000821:Animal Feed / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D002417:Cattle; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011211:Electric Power Supplies / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004560:Electricity; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D005308:Fertilizers / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005579:Fossil Fuels / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000378:metabolism*; D011200:Poultry / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D014881:Water Supply / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D009584:Nitrogen