Augmented discounting: interaction between ageing and time-preference behaviour.
Discounting occurs when an immediate benefit is systematically valued more highly than a delayed benefit of the same magnitude. It is manifested in physiological and behavioural strategies of organisms. This study brings together life-history theory and time-preference theory within a single modelling framework. We consider an animal encountering reproductive opportunities as a random process. Under an external hazard, optimal life-history strategy typically prioritizes immediate reproduction at the cost of declining fertility and increasing mortality with age. Given such ageing, an immediate reproductive reward should be preferred to a delayed reward because of both the risk of death and declining fertility. By this analysis, ageing is both a consequence of discounting by the body and a cause of behavioural discounting. A series of models is developed, making different assumptions about external hazards and biological ageing. With realistic ageing assumptions (increasing mortality and an accelerating rate of fertility decline) the time-preference rate increases in old age. Under an uncertain external hazard rate, young adults should also have relatively high time-preference rates because their (Bayesian) estimate of the external hazard is high. Middle-aged animals may therefore be the most long term in their outlook.
Sozou
Peter D
PD
Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK. p.sozou@lse.ac.uk
Seymour
Robert M
RM
D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001522:Behavior, Animal / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology; D013997:Time Factors