title: Comparison of MELD, Child-Pugh, and Emory model for the prediction of survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Recently, new prognostic models (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD model] and Emory score) were proposed for the prediction of survival in transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patients. Although the MELD model is considered to be superior and has consecutively been applied to priority listing for liver transplantation, these models have never been directly compared in terms of long-term prognosis. We therefore compared the prognostic accuracy of the different models, including the Child-Pugh score, in an unselected cohort of TIPS patients followed long-term.
  
  
  METHODS
  Baseline risk scores for 162 unselected consecutive TIPS patients followed until death (n = 81), liver transplantation, or end of observation (n = 81) (mean follow-up 30.7 +/- 26.4 months) were calculated, and respective concordance- (c-)statistics for the predictive accuracy of 3-, 12-, and 36-month survival for the three models were compared statistically.
  
  
  RESULTS
  All three models predicted short-term (3-month) survival with similar accuracy. The MELD model generated the best c-statistics for both 12-month (c-statistic 0.73, 95% CI = 0.64-0.82) and 36-month survival (c-statistic 0.74, 95% CI = 0.64-0.84). The predictive accuracy of the Emory score was significantly lower (c-statistic for 12-month survival: 0.60, 95% CI = 0.52-0.68, p = 0.012 vs MELD). In the statistical comparison of the MELD and the Child-Pugh model, only a trend favoring MELD for the prediction of 1-yr survival in patients with intestinal bleeding could be observed (MELD: c-statistic 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67-0.89; Child-Pugh: c-statistic 0.67, 95% CI = 0.55-0.80, p = 0.059).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The MELD model is superior to the Emory score but only slightly superior to the Child-Pugh classification for the prediction of long-term survival in TIPS patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine I, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Schepke
authors.forename: Felix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Roth
authors.forename: Rolf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fimmers
authors.forename: Karl August
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Brensing
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sudhop
authors.forename: Hans H
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Schild
authors.forename: Tilman
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sauerbruch
mesh_terms: D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D008111:Liver Function Tests; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D019168:Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic / Q000401:mortality*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate