Application of decision trees to the analysis of soil radon data for earthquake prediction.
Different regression methods have been used to predict radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e. barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. Analyses of the radon data from three stations in the Krsko basin, Slovenia, have shown that model trees outperform other regression methods. A model has been built which predicts radon concentration with a correlation of 0.8, provided it is influenced only by the environmental parameters. In periods with seismic activity this correlation is much lower. This decrease in predictive accuracy appears 1-7 days before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8-3.3.
Zmazek
B
B
J. Stefan Institute, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia. boris.zmazek@ijs.si
Todorovski
L
L
Dzeroski
S
S
Vaupotic
J
J
Kobal
I
I
D003663:Decision Trees; D004190:Disasters / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods; D011886:Radon / Q000032:analysis*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017524:Slovenia; D012990:Soil Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000032:analysis*
D012990:Soil Pollutants, Radioactive; D011886:Radon