title: Evidence for trends in UK flooding.
abstract: Recent major flooding in the UK has raised concern that climate change is causing increases in flood frequency and flood magnitude. This paper considers whether UK flood data provide evidence of increasing trends in fluvial floods. The analysis examines both local and national flood series and investigates the effect of climate variability on trend detection. The results suggest that there have been trends towards more protracted high flows over the last 30-50 years, but that this could be accounted for as part of climatic variation rather than climate change. There is no statistical evidence of a long-term trend in flooding over the last 80-120 years. Thus, although climate change could be influencing floods, direct analysis of flood records does not yet provide proof.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Alice J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Robson
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004190:Disasters; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D006113:United Kingdom