title: Prediction of the occurrence and intensity of post-traumatic stress disorder in victims 32 months after bomb attack.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Our objective was to identify factors that predict occurrence and severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a terrorism attack.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated 32 victims of a bomb attack in a Paris subway in December 1996 at 6 and 32 months.
  
  
  METHODS
  Sociodemographic characteristics, clinical data and physical injuries were used to predict PTSD occurrence and severity in 32 victims. The Watson's PTSD Inventory (PTSD-I) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES) by Horowitz were used to evaluate occurrence and severity of PTSD, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Thirty-nine percent of participants met PTSD criteria at 6 months, 25% still had PTSD at 32 months. Women had PTSD 32 months after the bomb attack more frequently than men. Employment predicted PTSD severity at 32 months. PTSD scores assessed by PTSD-I at 6 months were significantly and positively associated with IES scores at 32-month follow-up (r = 0.55, P = 0.004). Psychotropic drug use before the bomb attack significantly predicted PTSD occurrence and severity at 6 and 32 months. In a linear regression model, physical injuries, employment status and psychotropic drug use before the bomb attack were independent predictors of severity of PTSD at 32 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Bomb attack exposure resulted in persisting PTSD in a significant proportion of victims; the severity was predicted at 32 months by physical injuries and psychotropic drug use before the terrorism attack and by the PTSD score few months after the bomb attack.
authors.affiliation: Unité de psychiatrie et psychotraumatisme, CHU Tenon (AP-HP), 4 rue de la Chine, 75970 Paris cedex 20, France. louis.jehel@tnn.ap-hop-paris.fr
authors.forename: Louis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jehel
authors.forename: Sabrina
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Paterniti
authors.forename: Alain
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Brunet
authors.forename: Clara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Duchet
authors.forename: Julien Daniel
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Guelfi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001753:Blast Injuries / Q000523:psychology; D015897:Comorbidity; D005107:Explosions; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology; D008875:Middle Aged; D010297:Paris; D010555:Personality Inventory; D011890:Railroads; D012307:Risk Factors; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology; D013534:Survival / Q000523:psychology*; D023481:Terrorism / Q000523:psychology*