Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism.
A two-dimensional risk assessment system for sexual offenders was created that can classify them for risk of sexual recidivism, risk of nonsexual violent recidivism, and the composite risk of reconviction for sexual or nonsexual assaults. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of separate follow-up samples were used for cross-validation. The system is easier to score than Static-99, and substantially easier to score than the VRAG or SORAG, while yielding comparable predictive accuracy in cross-validation samples with follow-ups from 2 years to 19 years. ROC AUC coefficients between.74 and.81 were found for the different scales and samples.
Thornton
David
D
Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, Mauston, Wisconsin 53948, USA. david7thornton@aol.com
Mann
Ruth
R
Webster
Steve
S
Blud
Linda
L
Travers
Rosie
R
Friendship
Caroline
C
Erikson
Matt
M
D019992:Databases as Topic; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D012372:ROC Curve; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014754:Violence