title: Prospective follow-up suggests similar risk of subsequent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 among women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or negative colposcopy and directed biopsy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to determine the risk of cumulative cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or 3 according to initial colposcopy and directed biopsy results among women with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) or human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA positive atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS).
  
  
  METHODS
  A 2-year follow-up of 897 cases of LSIL and 1193 cases of HPV DNA positive ASCUS from the ASCUS/LSIL Triage Study was used to simulate American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Consensus Conference recommendations. Women with CIN grade 1 or less were followed up for 2 years by semiannual cytologic examination, with universal exit colposcopy. The clinical end point was a cumulative clinical center histologic diagnosis of CIN grade 2 or 3.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The cumulative risk of CIN grade 2 or 3 was equivalent for LSIL (27.6%) and HPV positive ASCUS (26.7%). After excluding the women with a diagnosis of CIN grade 2 or 3 at initial colposcopy and directed biopsy (17.9%), the remaining women were at nearly identical risk for subsequent CIN grade 2 or 3 regardless of initial colposcopy result (completely negative colposcopy-11.3%; negative colposcopically directed biopsy-11.7%; and CIN grade 1 biopsy-13.0%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  LSIL and HPV positive ASCUS are clinically equivalent. Initial colposcopic detection of obviously prevalent CIN grade 2 or 3 reduces risk. However, for the remaining women who have CIN grade 1 or less on colposcopy and directed biopsy, the risk for subsequent CIN grade 2 or 3 (whether missed, prevalent, or truly incident) is approximately 12% over 2 years. This risk does not vary meaningfully by initial distinction of histologic CIN grade 1 from negative colposcopy and biopsy.
authors.affiliation: University of California, Santa Barbara, USA.
authors.forename: J Thomas
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Schiffman
authors.forename: Diane
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Solomon
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001706:Biopsy; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000821:virology; D003127:Colposcopy; D004279:DNA, Viral / Q000235:genetics; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D027383:Papillomaviridae / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D018570:Risk Assessment; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000821:virology; D002578:Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000821:virology
chemical_list: D004279:DNA, Viral