title: Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual differences in working memory capacity.
abstract: This research examined the role of working memory (WM) in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Second, the number of alternatives retrieved was positively correlated with a measure of WM-capacity (the operation-span task). Third, participants' probability judgments were subadditive (summing to well over 100%). Fourth, the degree to which participants' judgments were subadditive was affected by the number and strength of the alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Fifth, the degree to which participants were subadditive was negatively correlated with WM-capacity. The results suggest that individual differences in WM-capacity are fundamental to hypothesis generation and probability judgment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. mdougherty@psyc.umd.edu
authors.forename: Michael R P
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Dougherty
authors.forename: Jennifer E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Hunter
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008568:Memory / Q000502:physiology*; D011336:Probability; D011582:Psychological Theory