[Quantitative assessment of individual risk and population screening program on gastric carcinoma].
OBJECTIVE
To set up a mathematic model for determining individual risk and population risk of gastric carcinoma.


METHODS
Based on principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a case-control study was quantified and a mathematic model for the screening of gastric carcinoma was set up. Using two different calculation methods of weight coefficients, the thresholds were identified as 0.20 and 0.17, respectively. This mathematic model was then used to examine 63 cases and 693 normal persons.


RESULTS
The sensitivities and specificities were 69% and 63%. The different calculative methods of weight coefficients did not affect the results of the identification.


CONCLUSIONS
The sensitivities and specificities were satisfactory indicating that it was convenient, feasible, economic and could meet the contented screening rate. It could be used to determinate the risk for gastric carcinoma both on individual and on population.
Chen
Kun
K
School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310031, China.
Yu
Wei-ping
WP
Zhu
Yi-min
YM
D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires