title: Estimation of paratuberculosis prevalence in dairy cattle in a province of Korea using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: application of Bayesian approach.
abstract: To draw inferences about the sensitivity and specificity of the newly developed ELISA test for bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis and posterior distribution on the prevalence of PTB in a province of Korea, we applied Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampler to the data extracted from the prevalence study in 1999. The data were from a single test results without a designated gold test. The prevalence estimates for PTB in study population ranged 3.2-5.3% for conservative and 6.7-7.1% for liberal, depending on the priors used. The simulated specificities of the ELISA close to one another, ranging 84.7-90.6%, whereas the sensitivity was somewhat spread out depending largely on the priors with a range of 46.4-88.2%. Our findings indicate that the ELISA method appeared useful as a screening tool at a minimum level in comparison to other diagnostic tests available for this disease in terms of sensitivity. However, this advantage comes at a cost of having low specificity of the test.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 200-701, Korea. paksi@kangwon.ac.kr
authors.forename: Son-il
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Pak
authors.forename: Doo
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Mo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004797:Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay / Q000379:methods*; D007723:Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D010283:Paratuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence