title: Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore.
abstract: The looming mass extinction of biodiversity in the humid tropics is a major concern for the future, yet most reports of extinctions in these regions are anecdotal or conjectural, with a scarcity of robust, broad-based empirical data. Here we report on local extinctions among a wide range of terrestrial and freshwater taxa from Singapore (540 km2) in relation to habitat loss exceeding 95% over 183 years. Substantial rates of documented and inferred extinctions were found, especially for forest specialists, with the greatest proportion of extinct taxa (34-87%) in butterflies, fish, birds and mammals. Observed extinctions were generally fewer, but inferred losses often higher, in vascular plants, phasmids, decapods, amphibians and reptiles (5-80%). Forest reserves comprising only 0.25% of Singapore's area now harbour over 50% of the residual native biodiversity. Extrapolations of the observed and inferred local extinction data, using a calibrated species-area model, imply that the current unprecedented rate of habitat destruction in Southeast Asia will result in the loss of 13-42% of regional populations over the next century, at least half of which will represent global species extinctions.
authors.affiliation: Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Otsu 520-2113, Japan. barry.brook@ntu.edu.au
authors.forename: Barry W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Brook
authors.forename: Navjot S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Sodhi
authors.forename: Peter K L
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Ng
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012846:Singapore; D013045:Species Specificity; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology*