title: Efficient disruption of small asteroids by Earth's atmosphere.
abstract: Accurate modelling of the interaction between the atmosphere and an incoming bolide is a complex task, but crucial to determining the fraction of small asteroids that actually hit the Earth's surface. Most semi-analytical approaches have simplified the problem by considering the impactor as a strengthless liquid-like object ('pancake' models), but recently a more realistic model has been developed that calculates motion, aerodynamic loading and ablation for each separate particle or fragment in a disrupted impactor. Here we report the results of a large number of simulations in which we use both models to develop a statistical picture of atmosphere-bolide interaction for iron and stony objects with initial diameters up to approximately 1 km. We show that the separated-fragments model predicts the total atmospheric disruption of much larger stony bodies than previously thought. In addition, our data set of >1,000 simulated impacts, combined with the known pre-atmospheric flux of asteroids with diameters less than 1 km, elucidates the flux of small bolides at the Earth's surface. We estimate that bodies >220 m in diameter will impact every 170,000 years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Exhibition Road, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK. p.a.bland@imperial.ac.uk
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Bland
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Artemieva