Disability in older Australians: projections for 2006-2031.
OBJECTIVE
To provide detailed projections for the prevalence of disability and associated common health conditions for older Australians for the period 2006-2031.


METHODS
Secondary analyses of datasets (national 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers; and projections of Australia's population from 2006-2031) collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.


METHODS
(i) The projected number of people with differing levels of disability (core activity restrictions in self-care, mobility or communication) up to 2031; (ii) The projected number of people with the main health conditions associated with disability in 2006 and 2031.


RESULTS
Projections indicate a 70% increase in the number of older people with profound disability over the next 30 years. The main conditions associated with profound or severe core activity restriction in older Australians are musculoskeletal, nervous system, circulatory and respiratory conditions and stroke.


CONCLUSIONS
In the future, there will be many more older Australians requiring assistance because of disability. This will present a challenge to families, friends, volunteers and paid service providers. The Australian planning ratio for residential aged-care services and community aged care services should be changed to take account of the shift to an older population with greater need of support.
Giles
Lynne C
LC
Department of Rehabilitation and Aged Care, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA.
Cameron
Ian D
ID
Crotty
Maria
M
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006299:Health Services for the Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence