title: Risk analysis of the spread of classical swine fever virus through "neighbourhood infections" for different regions in Belgium.
abstract: Risk factors associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" [Epidemiology of classical swine fever. In: Truszczynski, M. (Ed.), Proceedings of the Workshop on Diagnostic Procedures and Measures to Control Classical Swine Fever in Domestic Pigs and the European Wild Boar. Pulaway, Poland, pp. 119-130] during classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks were examined based on information collected during a CSF-epidemic, which occurred in the East Flanders Province of Belgium in 1994. The only risk factor that was associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" was a kernel estimation of the intensity of neighbouring herds (P=0.055) [Interactive spatial data analysis. Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, Essex], i.e. the higher the kernel estimation, the higher the risk for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections. In a second part of the study, the likelihood for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections within an area with a 1 km radius was predicted for every Belgian pig herd, assuming that the herd was infected with CSF-virus. For the prediction of these likelihoods, the model resulting from the risk assessment was used. Finally, the predicted likelihoods were transformed into a raster map after applying a smoothing technique. As a result, different areas in Belgium of higher or lower risk for CSF-virus spread through "neighbourhood infections" could be identified on the map. The areas in Belgium where CSF-outbreaks including "neighbourhood infections" occurred in the past decades were all predicted by the model to be of high risk.
authors.affiliation: Coordination Centre for Veterinary Diagnostics, Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre, Groeselenberg 99, 1180 Brussels, Belgium. koen.mintiens@var.fgov.be
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mintiens
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Laevens
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dewulf
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Boelaert
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Verloo
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Koenen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D006692:Classical Swine Fever Virus / Q000254:growth & development*; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D008954:Models, Biological; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013552:Swine