[Forecast about number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis 2001 - 2010].
OBJECTIVE
To forecast the number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in 2010.


METHODS
A mathematical model was established based on the nationwide epidemiological survey on tuberculosis conducted in 2000 so as to forecast the numbers of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in 2000s.


RESULTS
(1) The number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis would be a little more than that in 2000, with the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate rho of 0.26 being adopted. (2) The number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis would be smaller than that in 2000, with the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate rho of 0.30 being adopted. (3) If the current intervention strategy manages to keep the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate at the level of 0.35, the decline in number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis will approach the goal set by the national program that the number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis be decreased by 50%.


CONCLUSIONS
The goal set by the national program can be achieved only when the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate reaches 0.35.
Duanmu
Hong-jin
HJ
Beijing Tuberculosis and Thoracic Research Institute, Beijing 101149, China.
Wan
Li-ya
LY
Chen
Qi-ming
QM
Gong
You-long
YL
Wang
Yan-he
YH
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000453:epidemiology*