Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation.
Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P <.0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P =.004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model chi(2) = 105, P <.0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.
Rosen
Hugo R
HR
Division of Gastroenterology/Hepatology, Portland VAMC and Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR 97207, USA. hugo.rosen@med.va.gov
Prieto
Martin
M
Casanovas-Taltavull
Teresa
T
Cuervas-Mons
Valentin
V
Guckelberger
Olaf
O
Muiesan
Paolo
P
Strong
Russell W
RW
Bechstein
Wolf O
WO
O'grady
John
J
Zaman
Atif
A
Chan
Benjamin
B
Berenguer
Joaquin
J
Williams
Roger
R
Heaton
Nigel
N
Neuhaus
Peter
P
D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006085:Graft Survival; D006801:Humans; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012086:Reoperation; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016019:Survival Analysis