title: Risk factors for nonremission among initially untreated individuals with alcohol use disorders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study identified risk factors for 1-year and 8-year nonremission among initially untreated individuals with alcohol use disorders and examined whether a longer duration of professional treatment or Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) increased the likelihood of remission, moderated the influence of risk factors on remission status and reduced modifiable risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  A sample of individuals with alcohol use disorders (N = 473) was recruited at alcoholism information and referral centers and detoxification units and was surveyed at baseline and 1 year, 3 years and 8 years later. At each contact, participants completed an inventory that assessed their alcohol-related problems and personal characteristics and their participation in treatment and AA since the last assessment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  An 11-item baseline risk index was associated with 1-year nonremission. Longer duration of treatment and AA in the first year predicted remission and a decline in modifiable risk factors. In addition, longer duration of AA increased the likelihood of remission more among high-risk than among low-risk individuals. The risk factors at 1 year were associated with 8-year nonremission; longer duration of additional treatment or AA was associated with a higher likelihood of 8-year remission and further reductions in modifiable risk factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Referral counselors and treatment providers can identify high-risk individuals early in their help-seeking career and intervene to reduce the likelihood of a chronic course of their alcohol use disorder.
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Care Evaluation, Department of Veterans Affairs, Palo Alto, California 94025, USA. bmoos@stanford.edu
authors.forename: Rudolf H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Moos
authors.forename: Bernice S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Moos
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D020751:Alcohol-Induced Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention