Limitations of current risk characterization methods in probabilistic environmental risk assessment.
In probabilistic environmental risk assessment, the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring in ecological systems because of exposure(s) to substances are estimated. It is based on the comparison of an exposure/environmental concentration distribution, with a species sensitivity distribution derived from toxicity data. The calculation of a probabilistic risk can be performed in many ways (e.g., area under the curve in joint probability curves). However, several (hypothetical) examples and some theoretical considerations illustrate that the current risk characterisation methods have an integrative character and they focus on the statistical comparison of two distributions without properly considering the environmental interpretation of these underlying distributions. Several scenarios with varying exposure/environmental concentration distribution and species sensitivity distribution standard deviations are discussed.
Verdonck
Frederik A M
FA
Ghent University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Biometrics and Process Control, Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Gent, Belgium. frederik.verdonck@biomath.rug.ac.be
Aldenberg
Tom
T
Jaworska
Joanna
J
Vanrolleghem
Peter A
PA
D000818:Animals; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment
D004785:Environmental Pollutants