Predicting survival after treatment for fracture of the proximal femur and the effect of delays to surgery.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognosis after treatment for femoral neck fracture, to assess the impact of delay to surgery, and to devise a clinical prediction rule and score.


METHODS
A prospective observational study was conducted in which 1780 patients treated surgically in two teaching hospitals between 1 November 1997 and 31 October 1999 were followed over 12 months. Logistic regression was used to distinguish the effects of predictor variables on survival. Using a probit transformation of the predicted posterior probabilities of death, a prognostic score was devised with scores constrained so that a nominal score of approximately 90 represented a 50:50 chance of survival over 12 months.


RESULTS
Mortality was 30.1% in men and 19.5% in women. Increasing age, male gender, longer pre-operative delay, a higher American Society of Anesthesiology score, a lower Mental Test score, and a lower activities of daily living (Barthel) score were associated with increased risks of death. Of those waiting between 1 and 5 days for surgery, approximately 8 medium-risk and 17 high-risk patients (with prognostic scores of 90 and 120, respectively) would have to have their delay reduced to < 24 hours to yield one additional survivor.


CONCLUSIONS
The application of prediction rules must be guided by ethical, social, and scientific concerns.
Elliott
J
J
Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, Royal Victoria Hospital, Grosvenor Road, Belfast BT12 6BJ, Ireland.
Beringer
T
T
Kee
F
F
Marsh
D
D
Willis
C
C
Stevenson
M
M
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005265:Femoral Neck Fractures / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D016743:Mental Competency; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012737:Sex Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors