title: Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.
abstract: The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.
authors.affiliation: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Agrometeorology Institute, Beijing, China. taofl2002@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Fulu
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.forename: Masayuki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yokozawa
authors.forename: Yousay
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hayashi
authors.forename: Erda
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014881:Water Supply / Q000592:standards*