Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study.
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001.


METHODS
Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week.


RESULTS
A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g. temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7 degrees C in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase.


CONCLUSIONS
Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association.
Kan
Hai-Dong
HD
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Jia
Jian
J
Chen
Bing-Heng
BH
D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013696:Temperature; D014505:Urban Population