title: Short-term alcohol and drug treatment outcomes predict long-term outcome.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although addiction is recognized as a chronic, relapsing condition, few treatment studies, and none in a commercially insured managed care population, have measured long-term outcomes. We examined the relationship of 6-month treatment outcomes to abstinence 5 years post-treatment, and whether the predictors of abstinence at 5 years were different for those who were, and were not, abstinent at 6 months.
  
  
  METHODS
  The sample (N=784) is from an outpatient (day hospital and traditional outpatient) managed care chemical dependency program. Subjects were interviewed at baseline, 6 months, and 5 years. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess which individual, treatment and extra-treatment characteristics predicted alcohol and drug abstinence at 5 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Abstinence at 6 months was an important predictor of abstinence at 5 years. Among those abstinent at 6 months, predictors of abstinence at 5 years were older age, being female, 12-step meeting attendance, and recovery-oriented social networks. Among those not abstinent at 6 months, being alcohol dependent rather than drug dependent, 12-step meeting attendance, treatment readmission, and recovery-oriented social networks predicted abstinence at 5 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our findings demonstrate a clear association between short-term and long-term treatment success. In addition, these results strongly support the importance of recovery-oriented social networks for those with good short-term outcomes, and the beneficial impact of readmission for those not initially successful in treatment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94143-0984, USA. conniew@lppi.ucsf.edu
authors.forename: Constance
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Weisner
authors.forename: G Thomas
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Ray
authors.forename: Jennifer R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Mertens
authors.forename: Derek D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Satre
authors.forename: Charles
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Moore
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy*; D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy; D013695:Temperance / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013995:Time; D016896:Treatment Outcome