title: Seven-year incidence and progression of obesity. Characterization of body fat pattern evolution in low-income Mexico City urban population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There are no prospective data regarding the natural history of obesity in Mexico. The objective of this research was to investigate the incidence and progression of obesity in a low-income sector of Mexico City and to characterize evolution of body fat pattern distribution.
  
  
  METHODS
  We carried out a population-based, prospective survey. Total on-site population was 15,532 persons; we determined as eligible all 35 to 64-year-old men and nonpregnant women for a total of 3,505. We interviewed at baseline 3,319 (94.7%) individuals and examined 2,282 (65.1%). At follow-up approximately 7 years later, we interviewed 1,764 (77.3%) subjects and examined 1,594 (69.9%). Measurements for all participants included height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip circumference, and subscapular and triceps skinfold thickness. Overweight was defined as BMI > or = 25 and < or = 29.9 kg/m2, while grade 1 obesity was BMI >or = 30 and < or = 34.9 kg/m2, grade 2 was > or = 35 and < or = 39.9, and grade 3, > or = 40 kg/m2.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At baseline, prevalence of overweight was 48.6%, and grade 1 obesity, 22.7%, grade 2, 5.1%, and grade 3 obesity was 1.4%; at follow-up, these were 45.2, 25.8, 6.6, and 2.3%, respectively. At baseline, mean BMI in women was 29.1 +/- 0.16 kg/m2 and in men, 27.3 +/- 0.15 kg/m2; at follow-up, it reached 29.4 +/- 0.17 kg/m2 in women and 27.4 +/- 0.16 kg/m2 in men. Waist circumference increased from mean of 99.7 +/- 0.44 cm in women to 101.2 +/- 0.42 cm; in men, mean waist circumference rose from 95.2 +/- 0.38 to 96.7 +/- 0.39 cm.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The obesity epidemic in this population possesses serious proportions that increase risk for severe metabolic consequences. There is a need for intervention.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Estudios en Diabetes, Unidad de Investigación Médica en Enfermedades Metabólicas, Hospital Bernardo Sepúlveda, Centro Médico Nacional Siglo XXI, Mexico City, Mexico. cliceriogonzalez@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Clicerio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: González-Villalpando
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rivera-Martínez
authors.forename: Martín
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cisneros-Castólo
authors.forename: Ma Elena
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: González-Villalpando
authors.forename: Jesús
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Simón
authors.forename: Ken
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Haffner
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stern
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001823:Body Composition; D001824:Body Constitution; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001835:Body Weight; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology*; D011203:Poverty; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012923:Social Class; D013997:Time Factors