Population dynamics of HTLV-I infection: a discrete-time mathematical epidemic model approach.
Human T-cell Leukaemia Virus Type I (HTLV-I) is a retrovirus that causes Adult T-cell Leukaemia (ATL). The transmission routes of HTLV-I are (i) from infected mothers to their newborn babies, (ii) from infected males (husbands) to females (their wives) by long-term sexual intercourse, and (iii) from infected females (wives) to males (their husbands). Eshima et al. (2001) analysed a continuous-time HTLV-I model with no age structure in the population. In this paper, we consider the population dynamics of HTLV-I infection in a discrete-time mathematical model incorporating an age structure. The necessary and sufficient condition for the extinction of HTLV-I is derived from the mathematical model. A simulation of the HTLV-I infection based on the model demonstrates a rapid reduction of the HTLV-I infection proportion in Japan.
Eshima
Nobuoki
N
Department of Biomathematics, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University, Oita 879-5593, Japan. eshima@oita-med.ac.jp
Tabata
Minoru
M
Okada
Tadashige
T
Karukaya
Shigeru
S
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015490:HTLV-I Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D015368:Human T-lymphotropic virus 1; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors