title: Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
abstract: Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D001779:Blood Coagulation Factors / Q000032:analysis; D002339:Carotid Arteries; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications; D017270:Lipoprotein(a) / Q000032:analysis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D044469:Racial Groups; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D017539:Tunica Intima / Q000473:pathology
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D001779:Blood Coagulation Factors; D017270:Lipoprotein(a)