Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D001779:Blood Coagulation Factors / Q000032:analysis; D002339:Carotid Arteries; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications; D017270:Lipoprotein(a) / Q000032:analysis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D044469:Racial Groups; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D017539:Tunica Intima / Q000473:pathology
D015415:Biomarkers; D001779:Blood Coagulation Factors; D017270:Lipoprotein(a)