title: Rates of unemployment and penetrating trauma are correlated.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Trauma surgeons have observed an increased rate of penetrating trauma during periods of increased unemployment.
  
  
  METHODS
  During a 10-year period, the rate of unemployment in a metropolitan area was compared with the rate of intentional penetrating trauma at two Level I trauma centers. The total number of trauma cases was recorded. Assaults, derived from police records, were examined as an additional indicator of violent behavior. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to identify significant correlation between study variables. Stepwise maximum-likelihood estimation was used to derive a model predicting percent penetrating trauma.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The rate of unemployment and percent penetrating trauma of individuals presenting to the emergency department were significantly correlated (P = 0.014). After stepwise estimation, a model was derived (r2 = 0.846, P = 0.014) that estimated percent penetrating trauma on the basis of percent unemployment and total number of trauma admissions.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This long-term ecological study confirms that rates of penetrating trauma increase with increasing unemployment rates. This should inspire further research to identify areas of greatest need to improve delivery of resources and current public policy with the ultimate goal of decreasing the incidence of penetrating trauma.
mesh_terms: D003415:Crime / Q000523:psychology; D003417:Criminal Psychology; D004463:Ecology; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007615:Kansas / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D020380:Needs Assessment; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors; D013315:Stress, Psychological / Q000150:complications / Q000523:psychology; D013405:Suicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D014193:Trauma Centers / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014478:Unemployment / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D014950:Wounds, Penetrating / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control