title: Simulation modeling to derive the value-of-information for risky animal disease-import decisions.
abstract: Simulation modeling can be used in aiding decision-makers in deciding when to invest in additional research and when the risky animal disease-import decision should go forward. Simulation modeling to evaluate value-of-information (VOI) techniques provides a robust, objective and transparent framework for assisting decision-makers in making risky animal and animal product decisions. In this analysis, the hypothetical risk from poultry disease in chicken-meat imports was modeled. Economic criteria were used to quantify alternative confidence-increasing decisions regarding potential import testing and additional research requirements. In our hypothetical example, additional information about poultry disease in the exporting country (either by requiring additional export-flock surveillance that results in no sign of disease, or by conducting additional research into lack of disease transmittal through chicken-meat ingestion) captured >75% of the value-of-information attainable regarding the chicken-meat-import decision.
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture, Food Safety Inspection Service, 2150 Center Avenue, Building B, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA. terry.w.disney@aphis.usda.gov
authors.forename: W Terry
authors.initials: WT
authors.lastname: Disney
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Peters
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002645:Chickens; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014186:Transportation; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology