APACHE II predicts long-term survival in COPD patients admitted to a general medical ward.
OBJECTIVE
The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) was developed to predict intensive-care unit (ICU) resource utilization. This study tested APACHE II's ability to predict long-term survival of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) admitted to general medical floors.


METHODS
We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted for COPD exacerbation outside the ICU. APACHE II scores were calculated by chart review. Mortality was determined by the Social Security Death Index. We tested the association between APACHE II scores and long-term mortality with Cox regression and logistic regression.


METHODS
The analysis included 92 patients admitted for COPD exacerbation in two Burlington, Vermont hospitals between January 1995 and June 1996.


RESULTS
In Cox regression, APACHE II score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.76 for each increase in a 3-level categorization, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16 to 2.65) and comorbidity (HR 2.58; 95% CI, 1.36 to 4.88) were associated with long-term mortality (P <.05) in the univariate analysis. After controlling for smoking history, comorbidity, and admission pCO2, APACHE II score was independently associated with long-term mortality (HR 2.19; 95% CI, 1.27 to 3.80). In univariate logistic regression, APACHE II score (odds ratio [OR] 2.31; 95% confidence internal [CI] 1.24 to 4.30) and admission pCO2 (OR 4.18; 95% CI, 1.15 to 15.21) were associated with death at 3 years. After controlling for smoking history, comorbidity, and admission pCO2, APACHE II score was independently associated with death at 3 years (OR 2.62; 95% CI, 1.12 to 6.16).


CONCLUSIONS
APACHE II score may be useful in predicting long-term mortality for COPD patients admitted outside the ICU.
Goel
Anupam
A
Division of General Internal Medicine, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48201, USA. agoel@intmed.wayne.edu
Pinckney
Richard G
RG
Littenberg
Benjamin
B
D018806:APACHE; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000401:mortality*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate; D014707:Vermont / Q000453:epidemiology