Criticality and market efficiency in a simple realistic model of the stock market.
We discuss a simple model based on the minority game which reproduces the main stylized facts of anomalous fluctuations in finance. We present the analytic solution of the model in the thermodynamic limit. Stylized facts arise only close to a line of critical points with nontrivial properties, marking the transition to an unpredictable market. We show that the emergence of critical fluctuations close to the phase transition is governed by the interplay between the signal to noise ratio and the system size. These results provide a clear and consistent picture of financial markets, where stylized facts and verge of unpredictability are intimately related aspects of the same critical systems.
Challet
Damien
D
Theoretical Physics, Oxford University, 1 Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3NP, United Kingdom.
Marsili
Matteo
M