Population-level ecological risk assessment of planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons in great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) around Tokyo Bay, Japan.
Assessment of population-level ecological risk posed by planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (p-PCAHs; including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxintike polychlorinated biphenyls) in sediment of Tokyo Bay (Japan) and rivers via fish ingestion to the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) population was conducted by means of a probabilistic approach. Population decline risk was used as an indicator of population-level effects and compared with other indicators of effects. The increment of egg mortality risk posed by current p-PCAH levels was estimated to be 11.7%. This risk was interpreted in terms of both the increase of the risk of population decline in a 10-year period on a recently abundant cormorant population, and the reduction in population growth rate (r). Population decline risks of 20% and below were estimated to be 16% for the reference population and 32% for the exposed population, whereas the reduction in r was estimated to be 10%. The risk expressed in terms of population viability is a more susceptible measure and a more easily understandable indicator than both egg mortality risk as an individual-level risk and the reduction in r. Translating the effects due to pollutants into the risk on population viability will make ecological risk assessment more conductive to risk management.
Murata
Mariko
M
Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan. murata-mariko@nite.go.jp
Masunaga
Shigeki
S
Nakanishi
Junko
J
D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004463:Ecology; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D005260:Female; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000737:chemistry*; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D010063:Ovum / Q000254:growth & development; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / Q000633:toxicity*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction / Q000187:drug effects*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000633:toxicity*
D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical