title: Evaluation of the POSSUM scoring system for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Wide variations exist in the reported morbidity and mortality rates for major pancreatic resections. The Physiological and Operative Scoring System for enUmeration of Morbidity and mortality (POSSUM) was developed for comparative audit in general surgical patients. It has also been found to be reliable for audit in colorectal, thoracic and vascular surgery with minor modifications.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate POSSUM and its modification for mortality, P-POSSUM, in pancreatic surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective analysis of 50 patients undergoing partial pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (46 tumours, 4 chronic pancreatitis) using the POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality. These were then compared with the observed values.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The POSSUM-predicted mortality was 26%. The P-POSSUM predicted a mortality risk of 6%. The observed mortality was 4%. Using POSSUM for morbidity, the predicted value was 76%. The observed morbidity was 46%. The risk scores for patients with and without morbidity were similar (66.4 +/- 11.0 vs. 68.8 +/- 12.9, p = 0.49).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  While P-POSSUM appeared satisfactory for predicting mortality risk, POSSUM overestimated morbidity and mortality for PD in a specialist centre. Modifications are needed prior to its application for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Surgery, Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK.
authors.forename: Abdaal W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Sudeep R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.forename: Anil K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Agarwal
authors.forename: Brian R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Davidson
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000601:surgery*; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D014670:Ampulla of Vater; D003138:Common Bile Duct Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D008875:Middle Aged; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*; D016577:Pancreaticoduodenectomy / Q000401:mortality*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D006113:United Kingdom