title: An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.
abstract: Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.
authors.affiliation: College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China. huangmx@zju.edu.cn
authors.forename: Min-xiang
authors.initials: MX
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Xiao-hu
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.forename: Zhen-xiang
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Han
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004560:Electricity; D005579:Fossil Fuels / Q000191:economics*; D018803:Models, Economic; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D005579:Fossil Fuels