title: Which future for the French Pyrenean brown bear (Ursus arctos) population? An approach using stage-structured deterministic and stochastic models.
abstract: The Pyrenean brown bear (Ursus arctos) population is considered as one of the most seriously threatened with extinction in Western Europe. To assess its viability and possible needs of augmentation, we develop deterministic and stochastic stage-structured demographic models. The deterministic model reveals that a bear population cannot have a high annual growth rate and is particularly sensitive to breeder survival. High demographic parameters appear to be crucial to population persistence, especially for a small population that remains vulnerable to demographic and environmental stochasticities. The Pyrenean population cannot therefore be considered as viable. Successful conservation strategies for this population would require releasing more bears in both sub-populations in the near future.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Ecologie, CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris, France. gchapron@carnivoreconservation.org
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chapron
authors.forename: Pierre-Yves
authors.initials: PY
authors.lastname: Quenette
authors.forename: Stéphane
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Legendre
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Clobert
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D003710:Demography; D004777:Environment; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D008297:Male; D011156:Population Density; D012741:Sexual Maturation; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D001503:Ursidae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*