Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data.
The effective reproduction number of an infection, denoted Re, may be used to monitor the impact of a vaccination programme. If Re is maintained below 1, then sustained endemic transmission of the infection cannot occur. In this paper we discuss methods for estimating Re from serological survey data, allowing for age and individual heterogeneity. We describe semi-parametric and parametric models, and obtain an upper bound on Re when vaccine coverage and efficacy are not known. The methods are illustrated using data on mumps and rubella in England and Wales.
Farrington
C P
CP
Department of Statistics, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK. c.p.farrington@open.ac.uk
Whitaker
H J
HJ
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission*; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007223:Infant; D018448:Models, Immunological; D009107:Mumps / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission; D012409:Rubella / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D012698:Serologic Tests / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014611:Vaccination