title: Population-level ecological risk assessment of planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons in great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) around Tokyo Bay, Japan.
abstract: Assessment of population-level ecological risk posed by planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (p-PCAHs; including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxintike polychlorinated biphenyls) in sediment of Tokyo Bay (Japan) and rivers via fish ingestion to the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) population was conducted by means of a probabilistic approach. Population decline risk was used as an indicator of population-level effects and compared with other indicators of effects. The increment of egg mortality risk posed by current p-PCAH levels was estimated to be 11.7%. This risk was interpreted in terms of both the increase of the risk of population decline in a 10-year period on a recently abundant cormorant population, and the reduction in population growth rate (r). Population decline risks of 20% and below were estimated to be 16% for the reference population and 32% for the exposed population, whereas the reduction in r was estimated to be 10%. The risk expressed in terms of population viability is a more susceptible measure and a more easily understandable indicator than both egg mortality risk as an individual-level risk and the reduction in r. Translating the effects due to pollutants into the risk on population viability will make ecological risk assessment more conductive to risk management.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan. murata-mariko@nite.go.jp
authors.forename: Mariko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Murata
authors.forename: Shigeki
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Masunaga
authors.forename: Junko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nakanishi
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004463:Ecology; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D005260:Female; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000737:chemistry*; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D010063:Ovum / Q000254:growth & development; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / Q000633:toxicity*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction / Q000187:drug effects*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000633:toxicity*
chemical_list: D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical