title: Health spending projections for 2002-2012.
abstract: We forecast a slowdown in national health spending growth in 2002 and 2003, reflecting slower projected Medicare and private personal health spending growth. These factors outweigh higher projected Medicaid spending growth, caused by weak labor markets, and an expectation of continued high private health insurance premium inflation related to the underwriting cycle. Over the entire projection period, national health spending growth is still expected to outpace economic growth. The result is that the health share of gross domestic product is projected to increase from 14.1 percent in 2001 to 17.7 percent in 2012.
authors.affiliation: Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Baltimore, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Heffler
authors.forename: Sheila
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Sean
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Keehan
authors.forename: M Kent
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Clemens
authors.forename: Greg
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Won
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zezza
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D003625:Data Collection; D011307:Drug Prescriptions / Q000191:economics; D005544:Forecasting; D019981:Health Care Sector / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D008484:Medicaid / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006278:Medicare / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D010548:Personal Health Services / Q000191:economics; D014481:United States