Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise.
Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.
Milly
P C D
PC
U.S. Geological Survey, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08534, USA. cmilly@usgs.gov
Cazenave
A
A
Gennero
C
C
D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D012621:Seasons; D012623:Seawater; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014872:Water Movements