[Quantitative analysis of the demand for emergency medicine in Yokohama City, Japan].
OBJECTIVE
We analyzed regional characteristics that potentially might affect regional demand for emergency medicine in Yokohama city and projected the number of future ambulance users.


METHODS
The number of patients transported by ambulance was regarded as an index of the demand for emergency medicine. Various factors that may affect regional demand for emergency medicine were used as dependent variables in multiple regression analysis. The future population was estimated by the cohort change rate method based on the 1995 and 2000 censuses. Data pertaining to ambulance use were obtained from the Annual Fire Fighting Bulletin, Yokohama. Data pertaining to regional factors were obtained from the Annual Health Statistics Report, Yokohama; the Annual Health Statistics Report, Kanagawa; and the Statistics Report, Yokohama.


RESULTS
Statistically significant relations were observed between ambulance use per 1000 population and particular regional characteristics, i.e. the proportion of persons undergoing health examinations conducted by public health centers, the number of educational health promotion programs managed by the public sector, the proportion of persons in receipt of livelihood protection, the proportions of roads and commercial areas in each district in relation to the total area, the mean land price, the age-adjusted mortality rate, and the proportion of persons aged 65 years or over. The demand for emergency medicine in Yokohama city was predicted to increase dramatically as the population ages. The number of patients transported by ambulance, which was 121,606 in 2000, was projected to exceed 250,000 in 2030 and to approximate 300,000 in 2050.


CONCLUSIONS
The demand for emergency medicine will increase dramatically in Yokohama city as the society ages, Regional emergency medical systems should be improved accordingly.
Department of Public Health, Yokohama City University School of Medicine.
Kenji
K
Ohshige
Masako
M
Ii
Kazumitsu
K
Nawata
Shunsaku
S
Mizushima
Osamu
O
Tochikubo
D000552:Ambulances / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004632:Emergency Medical Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007564:Japan; D008962:Models, Theoretical