A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders.
Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.
Research Department, Penetanguishene Mental Health Centre, 500 Church Street, Penetanguishene, Ontario L9M 1G3, Canada. gharris@mhcp.on.ca
Grant T
GT
Harris
Marnie E
ME
Rice
Vernon L
VL
Quinsey
Martin L
ML
Lalumière
Douglas
D
Boer
Carol
C
Lang
D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011581:Psychological Tests / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012372:ROC Curve; D011902:Rape / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D014754:Violence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data