The use of actuarials at civil commitment hearings to predict the likelihood of future sexual violence.
Some have argued that acturarial methods such as the RRASOR, the MNSOSTR, and the Static-99, can outperform clinical judgments when utilized at a civil commitment hearing to make a prediction. Although actuarial data can be used to identify a group of persons to be considered for possible civil commitment, at present it cannot be used to accurately predict the likelihood of future acts of sexual violence with respect to any specific individual within such a group. For that reason, it might be best to restrict the use of acturial data to the initial screening process, rather than introducing it at the commitment hearing itself.
Berlin
Fred S
FS
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 104 East Biddle Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21202, USA. berlinf@aol.com
Galbreath
Nathan W
NW
Geary
Brendan
B
McGlone
Gerard
G
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D003417:Criminal Psychology / Q000592:standards*; D005544:Forecasting; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D014481:United States; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology