title: The incremental variance problem: enhancing the predictability of academic success in an urban, commuter institution.
abstract: The authors identified variables that enhance the predictability of academic performance and retention in an urban, commuter college. They used a longitudinal design with 2 waves of data collection: prior to 1st-semester attendance and again 6 semesters later. The results support the following conclusions: (a) After controlling for precollege indices of academic ability, specific variables within demographic, personal behavior, expectations, and attitudinal domains improved the predictability of grade point average by 15.5% for Whites and 20.3% for Blacks; overall, these analyses accounted for 61% of the variance in grade point average for Whites and 47% for Blacks; (b) for retention, the comparable increment in predictability was 2.5% for Whites and less than 1% for Blacks; overall, the percentage of retention variance accounted for was 42% for Whites and 29% for Blacks; and (c) a paradoxical finding was the combination of a positive correlation between high school average and students' expected grades on tests and a negative correlation between expected and actual grades. The paradox is resolved by citing data that demonstrate (a) a disparity between high school grades and independently measured academic accomplishment; (b) the consequent false attributions students draw about their academic abilities; and (c) the impact of these false attributions on the priority students place on their academic responsibilities.
authors: Department of Psychology, Brooklyn College, City University of New York, USA. normanw@brooklyn.cuny.edu
authors: Norman C
authors: NC
authors: Weissberg
authors: David R
authors: DR
authors: Owen
authors: Adelbert H
authors: AH
authors: Jenkins
authors: Ernest
authors: E
authors: Harburg
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001290:Attitude; D044383:Black People; D003710:Demography; D004493:Education; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D013334:Students; D014505:Urban Population; D044465:White People