title: Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing.
abstract: Past studies have suggested a statistical connection between explosive volcanic eruptions and subsequent El Niño climate events. This connection, however, has remained controversial. Here we present support for a response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to forcing from explosive volcanism by using two different palaeoclimate reconstructions of El Niño activity and two independent, proxy-based chronologies of explosive volcanic activity from ad 1649 to the present. We demonstrate a significant, multi-year, El Niño-like response to explosive tropical volcanic forcing over the past several centuries. The results imply roughly a doubling of the probability of an El Niño event occurring in the winter following a volcanic eruption. Our empirical findings shed light on how the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system may respond to exogenous (both natural and anthropogenic) radiative forcing.
authors: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Clark Hall, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA. jba7g@virginia.edu
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Brad Adams
authors: Michael E
authors: ME
authors: Mann
authors: Caspar M
authors: CM
authors: Ammann