[Application of multivariate regression in analyzing factors of schistosomiasis japonica transmission in Poyang lake].
OBJECTIVE
To analyze factors affecting transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in Poyang Lake.


METHODS
Successive surveillance data for at least three years from 1992 to 1998 at the schistosomiasis endemic administrative villages surrounding Poyang Lake were collected, including the egg positive rate by stool examination, investment on treatment of patients and mollusciciding in snail habitat, risk areas, bovine infection rate. Data on rainfall and temperature were also obtained from the relevant agencies. Step-wised regression method was employed to analyze the data.


RESULTS
The regression model established is statistically significant, R2 equals 0.735, P < 0.01. The accepted variables affecting the transmission of the disease were natural logarithm of human infection rate in last year, risk areas, infection rate of bovine, investment values of niclosamide per risk area and value of praziquantel administered per infection rate.


CONCLUSIONS
Chemotherapy and mollusciciding effectively reduced schistosomiasis transmission in Poyang lake region, while the infection rate, risk areas, bovine infection rate still drive the transmission.
Wu
Wei-ping
WP
Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200025.
Lin
Dan-dan
DD
Hu
Fei
F
Guan
Ya-yi
YY
Wang
Yan-An
YA
Zhu
Hong-qing
HQ
Cao
Chun-li
CL
Chen
Hong-gen
HG
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission; D002681:China; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D006801:Humans; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D012908:Snails / Q000469:parasitology