title: Assessing predation risk: optimal behaviour and rules of thumb.
abstract: We look at a simple model in which an animal makes behavioural decisions over time in an environment in which all parameters are known to the animal except predation risk. In the model there is a trade-off between gaining information about predation risk and anti-predator behaviour. All predator attacks lead to death for the prey, so that the prey learns about predation risk by virtue of the fact that it is still alive. We show that it is not usually optimal to behave as if the current unbiased estimate of the predation risk is its true value. We consider two different ways to model reproduction; in the first scenario the animal reproduces throughout its life until it dies, and in the second scenario expected reproductive success depends on the level of energy reserves the animal has gained by some point in time. For both of these scenarios we find results on the form of the optimal strategy and give numerical examples which compare optimal behaviour with behaviour under simple rules of thumb. The numerical examples suggest that the value of the optimal strategy over the rules of thumb is greatest when there is little current information about predation risk, learning is not too costly in terms of predation, and it is energetically advantageous to learn about predation. We find that for the model and parameters investigated, a very simple rule of thumb such as 'use the best constant control' performs well.
authors: MRC Health Services Research Collaboration, Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Whiteladies Road, BS8 2PR Bristol, UK. nicky.welton@bristol.ac.uk
authors: Nicky J
authors: NJ
authors: Welton
authors: John M
authors: JM
authors: McNamara
authors: Alasdair I
authors: AI
authors: Houston
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011235:Predatory Behavior; D018570:Risk Assessment