The future of the nurse shortage: will wage increases close the gap?
In recent years the U.S. media have been reporting a shortage of registered nurses (RNs). In theory, labor-market shortages are self-correcting; wage increases will bring labor markets into equilibrium, and policy intervention is not necessary. In this paper we develop a simple forecasting model and ask the question: How high must RN wages rise in the future to end the RN shortage? We find that inflation-adjusted wages must increase 3.2-3.8 percent per year between 2002 and 2016, with wages cumulatively rising up to 69 percent, to end the shortage. Total RN expenditures would more than double by 2016.
Spetz
Joanne
J
Center for California Workforce Studies, University of California, San Francisco, USA.
Given
Ruth
R
D005544:Forecasting; D006291:Health Policy; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009741:Nursing Staff, Hospital / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D016134:Organizational Policy; D012456:Salaries and Fringe Benefits / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States