title: vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0-15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure.
authors.affiliation: CJD Surveillance Unit, Beaumont Hospital, Dublin, Ireland. michaelsharney@eircom.net
authors.forename: Michael S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Harney
authors.forename: Azra C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Ghani
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Donnelly
authors.forename: Rory McConn
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Walsh
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Walsh
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Howley
authors.forename: Francesca
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Brett
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Farrell
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D007562:Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005506:Food Contamination; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007494:Ireland / Q000453:epidemiology; D008461:Meat Products; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors