title: Prognostic factors for radiographic progression, radiographic damage, and disability in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the rate of radiographic progression and identify prognostic factors of radiographic progression, radiographic damage, and physical disability in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).
  
  
  METHODS
  Ninety-four JIA patients with a median disease duration of 1.1 years were followed up prospectively for a median of 4.5 years. Bilateral wrist radiographs were obtained at baseline, at 1 year, and at the last followup visit. Radiographic damage was assessed by the carpal length (Poznanski score), and physical disability by the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (C-HAQ). Yearly radiographic progression, the Poznanski score at the final visit, and the C-HAQ score at the final visit were used as outcome measures. Baseline parameters included demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiographic data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean +/- SD Poznanski score was -1.2 +/- 1.3 at baseline, -1.7 +/- 1.8 at the 1-year visit, and -1.9 +/- 2.2 at the final visit (P < 0.0001). Radiographic progression was greater during the first year (mean +/- SD -0.5 +/- 1.1) than between the 1-year visit and the final visit (-0.2 +/- 1.3). The mean yearly radiographic progression during the entire study period was -0.1 +/- 0.4. Logistic regression analysis revealed that radiographic progression during the first year was the only baseline parameter that was predictive of all 3 study outcomes. The final Poznanski score was also predicted by the baseline Poznanski score, whereas female sex was protective against radiographic progression.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We identified the prognostic factors for poorer outcome in polyarticular-course JIA. The changes in the early Poznanski score can be used to predict long-term joint damage and physical disability.
authors.affiliation: Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico Policlinico S. Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Magni-Manzoni
authors.forename: Federica
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rossi
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pistorio
authors.forename: Francesca
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Temporini
authors.forename: Stefania
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Viola
authors.forename: Giampiero
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Beluffi
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Martini
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ravelli
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001171:Arthritis, Juvenile / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000453:epidemiology; D002348:Carpal Bones / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography; D012307:Risk Factors