Predictive factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 stage colorectal carcinomas.
OBJECTIVE
Selective endoscopic resection may cure early colorectal cancer (T1), but the management is controversial. There is concern about the small risk of lymph node metastasis, which will not be treated by endoscopic resection alone. The authors sought predictive markers of lymph node metastasis to assist patient management.


METHODS
The authors retrospectively analyzed consecutive cases of T1 stage colorectal cancer resected using endoscopic resection or bowel surgery over the period 1979 to 2000. The risk of lymph node metastasis was analyzed using logistic regression model for the markers selected by univariate analysis: the type of initial treatment, depth of submucosal invasion, lymphatic channel invasion, differentiation of histology, and invasive front histology.


RESULTS
Two hundred seventy-eight patients were available for study. Twenty-one had lymph node metastasis. Depth of submucosal invasion (> or = 2,000 microm) and lymphatic channel invasion significantly predicted risk of lymph node metastasis in multivariate analysis. When these two factors were adopted for the prediction of lymph node metastasis, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 100, 55.6, 15.6, and 100 percent, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
Depth of submucosal invasion and lymphatic channel invasion were accurate predictive factors for lymph node metastasis. These two factors could be used in selecting appropriate cases for surgery after endoscopic resection.
Sakuragi
Masako
M
Department of Surgery, Omiya Medical Center, Jichi Medical School, 1-847 Amanuma, Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture 330-8503, Japan.
Togashi
Kazutomo
K
Konishi
Fumio
F
Koinuma
Koji
K
Kawamura
Yutaka
Y
Okada
Masaki
M
Nagai
Hideo
H
D000368:Aged; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000556:secondary* / Q000601:surgery*; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D009367:Neoplasm Staging / Q000379:methods*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity