title: Probabilistic approach to developing nephropathy in diabetic patients with retinopathy.
abstract: It is well known that diabetes is a risk factor for many complications including diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy. An interesting question is whether a diabetic patient who has developed a retinopathy develops a nephropathy sooner. We approached this problem by calculating the conditional probability that a diabetic patient will develop a second complication, given that they had already developed the first complication. We also propose the application of Bayes' formula to estimate the probability of developing the second complication, given that the first complication had developed previously. We compared these two methods by applying them to analyse 5473 patients with type 2 diabetes. The results of our experience are described.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Medicina e Scienze dell'Invecchiamento, Università G. d'Annunzio di Chieti, Chieti, Italy. eballone@unich.it
authors.forename: Enzo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ballone
authors.forename: Vittorio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Colagrande
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Di Nicola
authors.forename: Rocco
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Di Mascio
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Di Mascio
authors.forename: Fabio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Capani
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003928:Diabetic Nephropathies / Q000150:complications*; D003930:Diabetic Retinopathy / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors