title: The misquantification of probative value.
abstract: D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of "characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inopposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.
authors.affiliation: College of Law, Center for the Study of Law, Science and Technology, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
authors.forename: D H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Kaye
authors.forename: Jonathan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Koehler
mesh_terms: D003416:Criminal Law / Q000379:methods* / Q000592:standards; D016172:DNA Fingerprinting; D003657:Decision Making; D005114:Extramarital Relations; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011336:Probability; D018454:Spouses; D013240:Stereotyping; D014481:United States