title: Predicting outcome in pediatric near-drowning.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Near-drowning is common in children and has a high mortality rate. Some survivors remain in a vegetative state after the accident and are a great burden to their family and society.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To find out whether outcomes on near drowning can be reliably identified early in the course of illness.
  
  
  METHODS
  Medical records of 72 children admitted to Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand, for treatment of near drowning from January 1993 to December 2001 were retrospectively studied. Stepwise multivariate discriminant analysis was used to identify the power of variables achieving highest overall accuracy in minimizing errors for predicting poor outcome in intact survivors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The patients were identified into three groups: functionally intact, vegetative and dead groups, it was found that a combination of physical examination in the emergency department (ED), the need for cardiopulmonary (CPR) in the ED, amount of adrenaline given during CPR, and high blood sugar achieved an overall accuracy of 83 per cent. When categorizing patients into good outcome versus poor outcome (the combination of the vegetative and dead group were the poor outcome group). The variables mentioned above achieved an overall accuracy of 98 per cent. Good outcome survivors could be correctly predicted with no error, but error occurred when poor outcome survivors were predicted to be good outcome in 3 per cent. Glasgow coma score > or = 5, the need for CPR in the ED and blood sugar > 300 mg/dl were selected clinical variables found to have optimum predictive abilities with an overall accuracy of 96 per cent, but showed an error of 6 per cent in predicting poor outcome from functional intact survivors (unpredicted good outcome).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  From the present study discrimination analysis cannot accurately separate all intact survivors from the vegetative groups, but can prospectively differentiate unpredicted good outcome from vegetative or dead groups. When using only simple clinical classification systems, unpredicted good outcome patients are detected. Since outcome cannot be accurately predicted in the ED, all near drowning victims should receive vigorous and aggressive treatment in the early course of illness and need close monitoring for respiratory complications and neurological signs.
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Department, Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
authors.forename: Ratanotai
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Plubrukarn
authors.forename: Siriluck
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tamsamran
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D015701:Near Drowning / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013785:Thailand