Extinction risk from climate change.
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Thomas
Chris D
CD
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. c.d.thomas@leeds.ac.uk
Cameron
Alison
A
Green
Rhys E
RE
Bakkenes
Michel
M
Beaumont
Linda J
LJ
Collingham
Yvonne C
YC
Erasmus
Barend F N
BF
De Siqueira
Marinez Ferreira
MF
Grainger
Alan
A
Hannah
Lee
L
Hughes
Lesley
L
Huntley
Brian
B
Van Jaarsveld
Albert S
AS
Midgley
Guy F
GF
Miles
Lera
L
Ortega-Huerta
Miguel A
MA
Peterson
A Townsend
AT
Phillips
Oliver L
OL
Williams
Stephen E
SE
D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002244:Carbon / Q000378:metabolism; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors
D002244:Carbon