title: Extinction risk from climate change.
abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. c.d.thomas@leeds.ac.uk
authors.forename: Chris D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cameron
authors.forename: Rhys E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Green
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bakkenes
authors.forename: Linda J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Beaumont
authors.forename: Yvonne C
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Collingham
authors.forename: Barend F N
authors.initials: BF
authors.lastname: Erasmus
authors.forename: Marinez Ferreira
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: De Siqueira
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Grainger
authors.forename: Lee
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hannah
authors.forename: Lesley
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hughes
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Huntley
authors.forename: Albert S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Van Jaarsveld
authors.forename: Guy F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Midgley
authors.forename: Lera
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Miles
authors.forename: Miguel A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Ortega-Huerta
authors.forename: A Townsend
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.forename: Oliver L
authors.initials: OL
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.forename: Stephen E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002244:Carbon / Q000378:metabolism; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon