title: [The analysis of the sensitivity and the specificity of the mass screening system of BSE].
abstract: Since the first infected case of BSE(Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) was identified in September, 2001 in Japan, Japanese people have been deeply concerned about safety of meat despite a mass screening system established by Japanese government. In the system all the cows for food must be examined with ELISA as screening and additionally with more accurate tests such as western blot etc. if the screened result is positive. To investigate the accuracy of the system, we calculated the number of false negatives and positives using computer simulation. Consequently, the sensitivity analysis towards ELISA showed that even if Japanese cattle were in a low risk group, a few of them are likely to be misdiagnosed as "negative" in spite of true BSE under the current screening system. Also we indicated how to improve the current system to get less false negatives. We believe the analysis of this study can contribute to risk communication with people to minimize the fear or irrationality caused by BSE epidemic.
authors.affiliation: Division of Health Informatics and Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe University, Kobe 650-0017.
authors.forename: Isao
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kamae
authors.forename: Ko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nakajo
authors.forename: Hiroshi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Aino
authors.forename: Shinichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yanagisawa
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000175:diagnosis*; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000592:standards / Q000662:veterinary*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity