Coronary artery bypass grafting: are risk models developed from on-pump surgery valid for off-pump surgery?
OBJECTIVE
This study was undertaken to test whether risk models developed from on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting are valid for assessing the risk for off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting.


METHODS
From January 1997 through June 2002, a total of 12,845 patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting procedures in Providence Health System hospitals. Of these, 1782 operations (14%) were performed without cardiopulmonary bypass. An operative mortality risk model was derived from on-pump data with logistic regression. This model and two other external risk models developed from on-pump data were then applied to patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting to test the model adequacy.


RESULTS
Good model discrimination and calibration were obtained from all three models.


CONCLUSIONS
Operative mortality risk models developed from on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting can be used to assess the risk for off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting.
Wu
YingXing
Y
Providence Health System, Portland, OR, USA. yingxing.wu@providence.org
Grunkemeier
Gary L
GL
Handy
John R
JR
D000368:Aged; D002315:Cardiopulmonary Bypass / Q000379:methods; D015331:Cohort Studies; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000379:methods* / Q000401:mortality*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006355:Heart-Lung Machine; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome