Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired).
We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.
Mendez
David
D
Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, 48109-2029, USA. dmendez@umich.edu
Warner
Kenneth E
KE
D000328:Adult; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000639:trends*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology