Mitotic rate and younger age are predictors of sentinel lymph node positivity: lessons learned from the generation of a probabilistic model.
BACKGROUND
Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy allows surgeons to identify patients with subclinical nodal involvement who may benefit from lymphadenectomy and, possibly, adjuvant therapy. Several factors have been variably, and sometimes discordantly, reported to have predictive value for SLN metastasis to best select which patients require SLN biopsy.


METHODS
We reviewed 419 patients who underwent SLN biopsy for melanoma from a prospectively collected melanoma database. To derive a probabilistic model for the occurrence of a positive SLN, a multivariate logistic model was fit by using a stepwise variable selection method. The accuracy of each model was evaluated by using receiver operator characteristic curves.


RESULTS
On univariate analysis, the number of mitoses per square millimeter, increasing Breslow depth, decreasing age, ulceration, and melanoma on the trunk showed a significant relationship to a positive SLN. Multivariate analysis revealed that once age, mitotic rate, and Breslow thickness were included, no other factor, including ulceration, was significantly associated with a positive SLN. The data suggest that younger patients with tumors <1 mm may still have a substantial risk for a positive SLN, especially if the mitotic rate is high.


CONCLUSIONS
In addition to Breslow depth, mitoses per square millimeter and younger age were factors identified as independent predictors of a positive SLN. This model may identify patients with thin melanoma at sufficient risk for metastases to justify SLN biopsy.
Sondak
Vernon K
VK
Department of Surgery, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. vsondak@umich.edu
Taylor
Jeremy M G
JM
Sabel
Michael S
MS
Wang
Yue
Y
Lowe
Lori
L
Grover
Amelia C
AC
Chang
Alfred E
AE
Yahanda
Alan M
AM
Moon
James
J
Johnson
Timothy M
TM
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008197:Lymph Node Excision; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis / Q000175:diagnosis*; D008297:Male; D008545:Melanoma / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D008875:Middle Aged; D008938:Mitosis; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D021701:Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy; D012878:Skin Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D014456:Ulcer