Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: a case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of established osteoporosis.
Individual patient-level models can simulate more complex disease processes than cohort-based approaches. However, large numbers of patients need to be simulated to reduce 1st-order uncertainty, increasing the computational time required and often resulting in the inability to perform extensive sensitivity analyses. A solution, employing Gaussian process techniques, is presented using a case study, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a sample of treatments for established osteoporosis. The Gaussian process model accurately formulated a statistical relationship between the inputs to the individual patient model and its outputs. This model reduced the time required for future runs from 150 min to virtually-instantaneous, allowing probabilistic sensitivity analyses-to be undertaken. This reduction in computational time was achieved with minimal loss in accuracy. The authors believe that this case study demonstrates the value of this technique in handling 1st- and 2nd-order uncertainty in the context of health economic modeling, particularly when more widely used techniques are computationally expensive or are unable to accurately model patient histories.
Stevenson
M D
MD
Operational Research, School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, England, UK.
Oakley
J
J
Chilcott
J B
JB
D019386:Alendronate / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002118:Calcium / Q000627:therapeutic use; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000191:economics / Q000209:etiology; D020249:Hormone Replacement Therapy / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D017059:Models, Econometric; D016011:Normal Distribution; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics* / Q000628:therapy*; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D035501:Uncertainty
D002118:Calcium; D019386:Alendronate