title: Semiparametric models for cumulative incidence functions.
abstract: In analyses of time-to-failure data with competing risks, cumulative incidence functions may be used to estimate the time-dependent cumulative probability of failure due to specific causes. These functions are commonly estimated using nonparametric methods, but in cases where events due to the cause of primary interest are infrequent relative to other modes of failure, nonparametric methods may result in rather imprecise estimates for the corresponding subdistribution. In such cases, it may be possible to model the cause-specific hazard of primary interest parametrically, while accounting for the other modes of failure using nonparametric estimators. The cumulative incidence estimators so obtained are simple to compute and are considerably more efficient than the usual nonparametric estimator, particularly with regard to interpolation of cumulative incidence at early or intermediate time points within the range of data used to fit the function. More surprisingly, they are often nearly as efficient as fully parametric estimators. We illustrate the utility of this approach in the analysis of patients treated for early stage breast cancer.
authors.affiliation: Departments of Biostatistics and Statistics, University of Pittsburgh and National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project, 201 N. Craig Street, Suite 350, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA. bryant@nsabp.pitt.edu
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bryant
authors.forename: James J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Dignam
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001699:Biometry; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016609:Neoplasms, Second Primary / Q000517:prevention & control; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D020845:Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators / Q000627:therapeutic use; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013629:Tamoxifen / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D020845:Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators; D013629:Tamoxifen