title: Predictions from the three-process model of alertness.
abstract: This paper summarizes a computer model for predicting alertness/performance in daily life. The model uses the timing of work hours (and/or sleep hours) as input and uses both a circadian and a homeostatic component (amount of prior wake and amount of prior sleep) that are summed to yield predicted subjective alertness (on a scale between 1 and 21). The model also includes prediction of psychomotor performance on various tasks, an identification of levels at which the risk of performance/alertness impairment start, as well as a prediction of sleep latency and time of awakening from sleep. The model is currently being used to evaluate work/rest schedules for navy, airline and railway applications. It is also used for teaching sleep/wake regulation and for generating research hypotheses.
authors.affiliation: IPM, Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. torbjorn.akerstedt@ipm.ki.se
authors.forename: Torbjörn
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Akerstedt
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Folkard
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Portin
mesh_terms: D002940:Circadian Rhythm / Q000502:physiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006706:Homeostasis / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011597:Psychomotor Performance / Q000502:physiology; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012890:Sleep / Q000502:physiology; D012892:Sleep Deprivation / Q000150:complications / Q000523:psychology; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis; D014851:Wakefulness / Q000502:physiology*; D014940:Work Schedule Tolerance