Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data.
We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.
Wang
Wendi
W
Department of Mathematics, Southwest Normal University, Chongqing 400715, PR China.
Ruan
Shigui
S
D002681:China; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D015991:Epidemiologic Measurements; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*