title: A computer model to predict the outcome and duration of ureteral or renal calculous passage.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We developed a computer model to predict the outcome and the duration until passage of ureteral/renal calculi.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective, randomized study was performed of the outcome in 301 patients presenting to the emergency room for renal colic. Presenting characteristics of those diagnosed with a single calculus by computerized tomography were recorded for analysis. Predictors of stone passage and passage duration were identified and then used to create a logistic regression model. The algorithm was trained on 141 randomly selected patients and then tested on a separate 160 patients. Model accuracy was compared to predictions from 10 experienced urologists and 9 urology residents in 77 randomly selected patients. The model was tested further in 30 randomly selected patients at a private hospital to assess its general applicability.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model prediction accuracy in 160 patients was 86.3% for passage and 87.3% for duration (less or greater than 2 weeks). In the comparison group the model, the 10 experienced urologists and the 9 urology residents had an overall prediction accuracy of 88.3%, 70.5% (p = 0.006) and 72% (p = 0.007) for passage, and 87.1%, 71.6% (p = 0.007) and 81% (p = 0.075) for duration, respectively. Prediction accuracy was 93.3% for passage and 90.3% for duration when tested at a private hospital.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our model provides outcome and duration of passage predictions for patients presenting acutely in the emergency room with a single ureteral/renal calculus. It performs better than experienced urologists and urology residents. It can be applied to a private practice setting with equal accuracy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Albany Medical College, Albany, New York, USA. sijo_p@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Sijo J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Parekattil
authors.forename: Mark D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: White
authors.forename: Michael E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Moran
authors.forename: Barry A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Kogan
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003085:Colic / Q000209:etiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007396:Internship and Residency; D007669:Kidney Calculi / Q000150:complications / Q000628:therapy*; D007674:Kidney Diseases / Q000209:etiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014514:Ureteral Calculi / Q000150:complications / Q000628:therapy*; D014572:Urology