[Measles in the Italian regions: estimate of infection parameters].
Key epidemiological parameters (forces of infection, contact matrices, reproduction ratios) from the basic SEIR age structured model for childhood infectious diseases are estimated for all Italian regions from pre-vaccination case-notification data. Such parameters allow to summarise the pre-vaccination epidemiology of measles in the Italian regions, particularly the amount of effort needed for the eradication of the disease, consistently with the WHO targets. Despite the limited reliability paid to Italian case notifications data, the results show i) that the estimated eradication coverages are nor distant from the levels estimated from Northern-Europe; ii) that regions seemingly demanding the largest eradication effort seem also to be those characterised, up to now, by the lowest coverages; iii) the importance of achieving high coverages without delays in the age of administration of vaccination.
Manfredi
Piero
P
Dipartimento di statistica e matematica applicata all'economia, Università di Pisa. manfredi@ec.unipi.it
Ciofi degli Atti
Marta
M
Mandolini
Donatella
D
Salmaso
Stefania
S
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016358:Contact Tracing; D018563:Disease Notification; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination; D014944:World Health Organization