title: Is the length of newly diagnosed Barrett's esophagus decreasing? The experience of a VA Health Care System.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Secular trends in the length of newly diagnosed Barrett's esophagus (BE) are unknown. We have anecdotally noticed less frequent new diagnoses of long segments of BE.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected information on a well-characterized large cohort of patients with documented BE that was diagnosed between 1981 and 2000 at Southern Arizona Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System. We examined temporal changes in the length of BE at the time of diagnosis (frequency and proportions). We conducted correlation analyses, as well as multivariate linear regression analyses, to examine the association between year of diagnosis and BE length while adjusting for temporal differences in age, sex, ethnicity, previous use of antisecretory therapy, and the presence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) of the gastric cardia.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 340 patients with BE first diagnosed between 1981 and 2000. All cases were defined by the presence of areas of salmon-colored mucosa in the lower end of the tubular esophagus and IM in biopsy specimens obtained from these areas on at least 2 endoscopic examinations. There were no significant changes over time in mean age of patients with BE (61 yr) or proportion of white patients (84%). The mean length of BE at the time of first diagnosis declined progressively over time. In the earliest period (1981-1985), mean BE length was 6 +/- 3.8 cm, whereas mean BE length in 1996-2000 was 3.6 +/- 2.9 cm. This observation was explained not only by more frequent diagnoses of short BE, but also by less frequent diagnoses of long BE (> or =3 cm). There was a strong inverse correlation between BE length at the time of diagnosis and year of diagnosis (Pearson's correlation coefficient, -0.29; P <0.0001). In the multivariate linear regression model, a more recent year of BE diagnosis was an independent predictor of shorter BE length (P <0.0001). Similar results were obtained in analyses restricted to veteran patients or those with BE > or = 3 cm.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There has been a progressive decline in the length of newly diagnosed BE as a result of an increase in short-segment BE, but, curiously, also because of a decline in long-segment BE (> or =3 cm). These changes cannot be explained fully by changes in demographic features of patients, previous therapy, or the increasing emphasis on IM of the gastric cardia. The role of referral bias and/or temporal changes in the definitions cannot be excluded.
authors.affiliation: Section of Gastroenterology, Houston VA Medical Center, and Baylor College of Medicine, Texas 77030, USA. hasheme@bcm.tmc.edu
authors.forename: Hashem B
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: El-Serag
authors.forename: Harinder
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Garewel
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kuebeler
authors.forename: Richard E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Sampliner
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001130:Arizona / Q000453:epidemiology; D001471:Barrett Esophagus / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D001707:Biopsy, Needle; D002299:Cardia / Q000473:pathology*; D004945:Esophagoscopy / Q000379:methods; D004947:Esophagus / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D006787:Hospitals, Veterans; D006801:Humans; D007150:Immunohistochemistry; D015994:Incidence; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017678:Sex Distribution