Are adjustments insufficient?
Many judgmental biases are thought to be the product of insufficient adjustment from an initial anchor value. Nearly all existing evidence of insufficient adjustment, however, comes from an experimental paradigm that evidence indicates does not involve adjustment at all. In this article, the authors first provide further evidence that some kinds of anchors (those that are self-generated and known to be incorrect but close to the correct answer) activate processes of adjustment, whereas others (uncertain anchors provided by an external source) do not. It is then shown that adjustment from self-generated anchors does indeed tend to be insufficient, both by comparing the estimates of participants starting from different anchor values and by comparing estimates with actual answers. Thus, evidence is provided of adjustment-based anchoring effects similar to the accessibility-based anchoring effects observed in the traditional anchoring paradigm, supporting theories of social judgment that rely on mechanisms of insufficient adjustment.
Epley
Nicholas
N
Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. epley@wjh.harvard.edu
Gilovich
Thomas
T
D000223:Adaptation, Psychological; D000328:Adult; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012649:Self Concept; D012919:Social Behavior