title: Time series analyses of global change data.
abstract: The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity, the significant intercorrelation between time, temperature, and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data, additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local, regional, and global warming trends.
authors.affiliation: USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center, 2000 E. Allen Road, Tucson, Arizona 85719, USA.
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.forename: M H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Nichols
authors.forename: H B
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: Osborn