A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.
In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.
Pouillot
Régis
R
Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments, DERNS, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France. bdufour@vet-alfort.fr
Dufour
Barbara
B
Durand
Benoît
B
D000367:Age Factors; D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D010283:Paratuberculosis / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013269:Stochastic Processes