Short-term model of the production of construction aggregates in Taiwan based on artificial neural networks.
BACKGROUND
Taiwan's geography and limited stock of sandstone have caused sandstone resources to gradually decline to the point of exhaustion after long-term excavation. Moreover, the Taiwanese government has continuously increased the amount of land area near rivers that cannot be excavated to facilitate riverbed remediation and promote conservation of water resources. Accordingly, predicting and managing the annual production of construction aggregates in future construction projects, and dealing appropriately with some thorny problems, for instance, demand that excess supply, excessive excavation, unregulated excavation, and the consequent environmental damage, will significantly affect the efficient use of natural resources in a manner that accords with the national policy of Sustainable Development (SD).


METHODS
. This study establishes an empirical model for forecasting the annual production of future construction aggregates using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), based on 15 relevant socio-economic indicators, such as indicator of annual consumption of cement. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on these indicators.


CONCLUSIONS
This work applies ANN to estimate the annual production of construction aggregates; the estimates, the verification of the model and the sensitivity analysis are all acceptable. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis results indicate that the annual consumption of cement is the indicator that most strongly influences the production of construction aggregates, as well as whether construction waste can be recycled and steel structures can be used in buildings, helping to reduce the future production of construction aggregates in Taiwan.


CONCLUSIONS
The elaborate prediction methodology presented in this study avoids some of the weaknesses or limitations of conventional linear statistics, linear programming or system dynamics. Additionally, the results not only provide a short-term prediction of the production of construction aggregates in Taiwan, but also provide a viable and flexible means of verifying quality certification of the production data of construction aggregates in the future by incorporating those relevant socio-economic indicators.


CONCLUSIONS
The continuity and quality of the database of relevant indicators used in this study should be closely scrutinized in order to ensure the SD means of exploiting resources.
Chang
I-Cheng
IC
Department of Environmental Engineering, Lan Yang Institute of Technology, No. 79, Fushing Rd., Toucheng Jen, Ilan, Taiwan 261. d2507002@giga.net.tw
Hsiao
Teng-Yuan
TY
D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003252:Construction Materials; D005544:Forecasting; D055593:Geological Phenomena; D005844:Geology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D013624:Taiwan; D014881:Water Supply