Physician production is at a steady supply, but demand for physician services is increasing.
A shortage of physicians, not a surplus, is now predicted in the United States, a mismatch of supply at the same annual rate compared to constantly increasing demand. The yearly renewal from U.S. graduates and international medical graduates completing graduate medical education is now in a steady state. The ripple effect of expanded cohorts of actively practicing physicians proceeding through the practice span shows the beginning signs of stabilization. The demand and need for physician services in healthcare delivery continue to rise as population, aging, economic expansion, and technology inexorably increase. The gap in the balance of steady supply and increasing demand produces a dilemma that worsens over time, uncertain as to intervention. An informed dialogue is important to ascertain the role and emphasis of market-place incremental steps and/or the possibilities of governmental intrusion. The time frame for action, as new goals emerge, is approaching given a decade or more years necessary in new physician production.
Rigby
Perry
P
Department of Health Care Systems, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, USA.
D006296:Health Services / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D014481:United States