[Mortality risk estimation in cardiac surgery].
BACKGROUND
The aim of this study was to compare the ability of three risk models to predict operative mortality after cardiac surgery.


METHODS
Risk factors of 3111 patients (73% male, mean age 65.2 +/- 10.7 years) were derived from our institutional database at the Cardiac Surgery Department of the G.M. Lancisi Hospital, Ancona, Italy. The predicted mortality was derived from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score (STS), the EuroSCORE (ES) and the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group score (NE).


RESULTS
The observed mortality in the myocardial revascularization population (1995 patients) was 2.2% (43 patients). The mean predicted mortality by STS, ES and NE was 1.9, 4.2 and 1.9%, respectively. The predictive ability of the models was measured by means of the ROC curve. Curves were respectively of 0.82, 0.77 and 0.78.


CONCLUSIONS
All tested models proved e good accuracy level but ES showed a constant overestimation of mortality at all risk levels.
Pierri
Michele Danilo
MD
Divisione di Cardiochirurgia, Istituo Cardiologico G. M. Lancisi, Ancona. micheledpierri@yahoo.it
Borioni
Mauro
M
Iacobone
Gianfranco
G
Piccoli
Gian Piero
GP
Di Eusanio
Marco
M
Bianchini
Fabio
F
Di Eusanio
Giuseppe
G
D000368:Aged; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000401:mortality*; D015897:Comorbidity; D005260:Female; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009204:Myocardial Revascularization / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome