Estimating background precipitation quality from network data.
Assessments of the relative merits of alternative acid-rain control strategies revolve around considerations of potential benefit per unit effort and/or cost. A question that often arises concerns the changes in deposition that would follow if all industrial (or societal) emissions were eliminated, in which case precipitation chemistry would be dominated by emissions from natural sources. Estimates of the 'natural background' of precipitation chemistry can be based on (a) measurements made at distant locations, (b) reducing emissions to zero in numerical simulations, or (c) examinations of existing data. Each alternative is flawed because (a) of the assumption that natural emissions in one location are like those in another, (b) no existing model contains descriptions of chemical processes involving all of the chemical species of importance, and (c) all contemporary data records or relevance are affected by precisely the emissions we wish to reduce. Here, the third alternative is explored in detail, using event precipitation chemistry data from North America. The analysis reveals a background pH level that varies from site to site, but always lies in the range 5.0-5.3.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Air Resources Laboratory, 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, USA.
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