Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.
In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence- operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.
Davis
Stephen
S
Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
Begon
Mike
M
De Bruyn
Luc
L
Ageyev
Vladimir S
VS
Klassovskiy
Nikolay L
NL
Pole
Sergey B
SB
Viljugrein
Hildegunn
H
Stenseth
Nils Chr
NC
Leirs
Herwig
H
D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000382:microbiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D005849:Gerbillinae / Q000382:microbiology; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000382:microbiology; D007623:Kazakhstan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D011156:Population Density; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005423:Siphonaptera / Q000382:microbiology; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000302:isolation & purification