title: Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.
abstract: In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence- operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.
authors.affiliation: Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Begon
authors.forename: Luc
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: De Bruyn
authors.forename: Vladimir S
authors.initials: VS
authors.lastname: Ageyev
authors.forename: Nikolay L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Klassovskiy
authors.forename: Sergey B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Pole
authors.forename: Hildegunn
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Viljugrein
authors.forename: Nils Chr
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
authors.forename: Herwig
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Leirs
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000382:microbiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D005849:Gerbillinae / Q000382:microbiology; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000382:microbiology; D007623:Kazakhstan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D011156:Population Density; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005423:Siphonaptera / Q000382:microbiology; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000302:isolation & purification