Predicting quarantine failure rates.
Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases.
Day
Troy
T
Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6. tday@mast.queensu.ca
D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D011790:Quarantine; D018401:Sample Size