title: The shape of things to come: using models with physiological structure to predict mortality trajectories.
abstract: If mortality rate is viewed as the outcome of processes of behavior, growth and reproduction, then it should be possible to predict mortality rate as a result of those processes. We provide two examples of how this may be done. In the first, we use the method of linear chains to treat mortality that is the result of multiple physiological processes, some of which may have delays. In the second, we assume that mortality is the result of damage associated with growth and metabolism. Both approaches lead to a rich diversity of predicted mortality trajectories. Although many of these look Gompertzian at young ages, the behavior at older ages depends upon the details of the physiological models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Jack Baskin School of Engineering and Center for Stock Assessment Research, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. msmangel@ams.ucsc.edu
authors.forename: M Marc
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Mangel
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Bonsall
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D010829:Physiological Phenomena; D014481:United States