Modeling pandemic preparedness scenarios: health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply.
Influenza pandemic planning is a complex, multifactorial process, which involves public health authorities, regulatory authorities, academia and industry. It is further complicated by the unpredictability of the time of emergence and severity of the next pandemic and the effectiveness of influenza epidemic interventions. The complexity and uncertainties surrounding pandemic preparedness have so far kept the various stakeholders from joining forces and tackling the problem from its roots. We developed a mathematical model, which shows the tangible consequences of conceptual plans by linking possible pandemic scenarios to health economic outcomes of possible intervention strategies. This model helps to structure the discussion on pandemic preparedness and facilitates the translation of pandemic planning concepts to concrete plans. The case study for which the model has been used shows the current level of global pandemic preparedness in an assumed pandemic scenario, the health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply and the importance of cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing technologies as a tool for pandemic control.
Medema
Jeroen K
JK
Business Group Influenza, Solvay Pharmaceuticals BV, PO Box 900, Weesp 1380 DA, The Netherlands. jeroen.medema@solvay.com
Zoellner
York F
YF
Ryan
James
J
Palache
Abraham M
AM
D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D014943:Global Health; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006284:Health Plan Implementation; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000191:economics / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008954:Models, Biological; D014611:Vaccination
D007252:Influenza Vaccines