title: Initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: an assessment of the revised World Health Organization scaling-up guidelines.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the utility of the 2003 revised World Health Organization (WHO) criteria [initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in stage IV, in stage III plus CD4 cell count < 350 x 10(6) cells/l, or in stage I or II plus CD4 cell count < 200 x 10 cells/l] relative to other scenarios of HAART initiation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Progression to AIDS and death in 292 patients taking HAART and 974 not taking HAART in a South African institution in 1992-2001, stratifying patients by baseline CD4 cell count and WHO stage.
  
  
  RESULTS
  HAART was associated with decreased AIDS [adjusted rate ratio [ARR], 0.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.08-0.31) and death (ARR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.06-0.18). Benefit of HAART was significant across all WHO stages plus CD4 cell counts. The greatest number of deaths averted was in stages IV [74.0/100 patient-years (PY); 95% CI, 50.2-84.5) and III (32.8/100 PY; 95% CI, 22.4-40.9). AIDS cases averted in stage III (22.0/100 PY; 95% CI, 6.1-26.9) were higher than in stage I and II with CD4 cell count < 200 x 10(6) cells/l (8.9/100 PY 95% CI, 5.6-13.3). Treatment initiation for symptomatic disease resulted in greater benefits than using any CD4 cell thresholds. Application of WHO criteria increased the treatment-eligible proportion from 44.5% to 56.7% (P < 0.05) but did not prevent more death (P > 0.05) than treating symptomatic disease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Implementation of the revised WHO guidelines in sub-Saharan Africa may result in a significantly increased number of individuals eligible for treatment but would not be as effective a strategy for preventing death as treating symptomatic disease.
authors.affiliation: Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Observatory, South Africa.
authors.forename: Motasim
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Badri
authors.forename: Linda-Gail
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Bekker
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Orrell
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pitt
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cilliers
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wood
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D000368:Aged; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D012044:Regression Analysis; D014944:World Health Organization