Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. Is it possible to predict outcome?
OBJECTIVE
Mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) remains high. Hardman et al. suggested that the following factors predict perioperative death: age >76 years, loss of consciousness, ECG confirmed ischemia, creatinine over 180 micromol/l and hemoglobin below 9 g/dl. A score of 3 or more had 100% mortality. A retrospective study was performed to validate this and determine if modification is required.


METHODS
Retrospective analysis of the 5 Hardman Index factors along with preoperative systolic blood pressure at presentation, after resuscitation and during surgery was performed.


RESULTS
A total of 137 cases were reviewed with overall mortality of 56.2%. Of Hardman's criteria: age, ECG ischemic changes, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were significant in predicting outcome (p=0.0007, 0.0152, 0.0001 and 0.0213, respectively). Loss of consciousness was not significant (p=0.9054). Hardman scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 scored mortality percentages of 40.4%, 46.4%, 76.7%, 91.7% and 100%, respectively. Systolic blood pressure was significantly predictive at 100 mmHg and 120 mmHg on presentation (p=0.0008 and 0.0017, respectively) and 100 mmHg and 120 mmHg after resuscitation (p=0.0001 and 0.0510, respectively). A modified score replaced loss of consciousness with systolic blood pressure below 100 mmHg with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 had mortality of 22.2%, 46.8%, 66.7%, 83.9% and 100%, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
Our data supports the effectiveness of the Hardman Index in predicting successful surgery. However loss of consciousness was not a significant predictor. We proposed review of predictive indices, but resources should be channelled into screening to prevent rAAA.
Calderwood
R
R
Vascular Surgery Unit, Wythenshawe Hospital, Manchester, UK.
Halka
T
T
Haji-Michael
P
P
Welch
M
M
D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D001019:Aortic Rupture / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome