title: Predictors of early mortality in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected african children.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection follows a bimodal clinical course with rapid progression in 10-45% of children before the age of 2 years and slower progression in the remainder. A prospective observational study was undertaken to determine predictors of mortality in HIV-1-infected African infants during the first 2 years of life.
  
  
  METHODS
  Infants in a perinatal cohort identified to be HIV-1-infected by DNA PCR were followed monthly to 1 year, then quarterly to 2 years or death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 62 HIV-1-infected infants, infection occurred by the age of 1 month in 56 (90%) infants, and 32 (52%) died at median age of 6.2 months. All infant deaths were caused by infectious diseases, most frequently pneumonia (75%) and diarrhea (41%). Univariate predictors of infant mortality included maternal CD4 count <200 cells/microl [hazard ratio (HR), 3.4; P = 0.008], maternal anemia (HR = 3.7; P = 0.005), delivery complications (HR = 2.7; P = 0.01), low birth weight (HR = 4.1; P = 0.001), weight, length and head circumference </=5th percentile at age 1 month (HR = 3.7, P = 0.003; HR = 5.8, P < 0.001; and HR = 10.4, P < 0.001, respectively), formula-feeding (HR = 4.0; P = 0.01), infant CD4% </=15% (HR = 5.5; P = 0.01), infant CD4 count <750 (HR = 9.7; P = 0.006) and maternal death (HR = 2.9, P = 0.05). In multivariate analysis, maternal CD4 count <200 (HR = 2.7; P = 0.03) and delivery complications (HR = 3.4; P = 0.005) were independently associated with infant mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Advanced maternal HIV disease, maternal anemia, delivery complications, early growth faltering, formula-feeding and low infant CD4 were predictors of early mortality in African HIV-1-infected infants. In resource-poor settings, these predictors may be useful for early identification and treatment of high risk infants.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Elizabeth M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Obimbo
authors.forename: Dorothy A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Mbori-Ngacha
authors.forename: James O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Ochieng
authors.forename: Barbra A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.forename: Phelgona A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Otieno
authors.forename: Rose
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bosire
authors.forename: Carey
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Farquhar
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Overbaugh
authors.forename: Grace C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: John-Stewart
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000367:Age Factors; D002423:Cause of Death; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003906:Developing Countries; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000635:transmission*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012737:Sex Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis