title: [Risk assessment of bluetongue disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS)].
abstract: Using a geographic information system (GIS), by analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of cattle density and the risk factors temperature, altitude and rainfall, we defined geographical habitats enabling optimal development and competence of Culicoides spp. to transmit Bluetongue-Virus (BTV): Risk zones (low, high, highest risk) were identified mainly in Baden-Württemberg, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz if persistently infected ruminants are imported into these zones in summer (June to August mainly), based on the current climatic conditions, BTD outbreaks are considered a real possibility. Overwintering of the virus seems unlikely. However, global warming will lead to a steady increase of the size of the risk zones. In addition, the possibility of primary outbreaks increases. The reason for this is not only the expected northern shift of Culicoides imicola, but in addition an increasing vector competence of domestic Culicoides species. We therefore recommend the storage of vaccines as well as conducting ecological studies analysing the presence of Culicoides vectors. Using the data from these studies, it will be possible to produce updated quantitative risk assessment via GIS.
authors.affiliation: Institut für Mikrobiologie und Tierseuchen, Fachbereich Veterinärmedizin, Freie Universität Berlin.
authors.forename: Sylvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Koslowsky
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Staubach
authors.forename: Mathias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kramer
authors.forename: Lothar H
authors.initials: LH
authors.lastname: Wieler
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology*; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology*; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012418:Ruminants; D012621:Seasons; D012756:Sheep