title: Monitoring organ donor rates: a predictive model based on routinely available data in France applied to the year 2002.
abstract: Temporal trends in organ donor harvesting rates are subject to variability. It is important to detect variations as early as possible using current data. We developed a predictive model for monitoring harvesting activity using the number of donors harvested monthly between 1996 and 2001. A Poisson model was used to predict the number of donors harvested each month along with their confidence intervals. This model also updates, on a monthly basis, the predicted number of donors for the current year. During 2002, the number of donors observed each month followed the predicted monthly variations, but a significant increase was observed in March and May. These models can be used by transplantation agencies for monitoring purposes and for the evaluation of organ donation programmes.
authors.affiliation: Evaluation Unit, Etablissement français des Greffes, 5, rue Lacuée, Paris 75012, France.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Poinard
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Baudrin
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chalem
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tuppin
authors.forename: J-L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Golmard
mesh_terms: D005602:France; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009927:Tissue and Organ Procurement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*