title: Seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida.
abstract: Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. jshaman@fas.harvard.edu
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shaman
authors.forename: Jonathan F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Day
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stieglitz
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zebiak
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cane
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002645:Chickens / Q000821:virology; D002980:Climate; D003465:Culex / Q000821:virology; D004665:Encephalitis Virus, St. Louis / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D004674:Encephalitis, St. Louis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D005431:Florida / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D012621:Seasons; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance; D014887:Weather