Monitoring organ donor rates: a predictive model based on routinely available data in France applied to the year 2002.
Temporal trends in organ donor harvesting rates are subject to variability. It is important to detect variations as early as possible using current data. We developed a predictive model for monitoring harvesting activity using the number of donors harvested monthly between 1996 and 2001. A Poisson model was used to predict the number of donors harvested each month along with their confidence intervals. This model also updates, on a monthly basis, the predicted number of donors for the current year. During 2002, the number of donors observed each month followed the predicted monthly variations, but a significant increase was observed in March and May. These models can be used by transplantation agencies for monitoring purposes and for the evaluation of organ donation programmes.
Poinard
C
C
Evaluation Unit, Etablissement français des Greffes, 5, rue Lacuée, Paris 75012, France.
Baudrin
L
L
Chalem
Y
Y
Tuppin
P
P
Golmard
J-L
JL
D005602:France; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009927:Tissue and Organ Procurement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*