title: Which elderly patients with severe aortic stenosis benefit from surgical treatment? An aid to clinical decision making.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Clinical decision-making in an individual elderly patient with severe aortic stenosis (AS) is difficult. The prognosis is influenced by increased age and various cardiac morbidity and comorbidity, and the benefit of surgery is uncertain because the prognosis with conservative treatment has rarely been described. The study aim was to identify those patients who would gain from surgical therapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  The long-term survival of a cohort of elderly patients after an initial diagnosis of severe aortic stenosis was analyzed. Multivariate analysis was used to develop patient profiles on the basis of four main variables of age, severity of AS, cardiac morbidity, and comorbidity, to illustrate the benefit of surgical treatment over conservative treatment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 280 consecutive patients aged > or = 70 years (median age 78 years) with a first-time diagnosis of isolated AS made between 1991 and 1993 was included. Of these patients, 120 underwent surgery. The seven-year predicted survival ranged from 6.9% to 83% in surgically treated patient, and from 0.6% to 48% in conservatively treated patients. The benefit of surgical treatment over conservative treatment was greatest in patients aged < 80 years, with a more critical AS, cardiac morbidity, and without (7-year survival 78% versus 14%) or with (7-year survival 56% versus 1%) comorbidity. Minimal benefit was seen in patients aged > 80 years with a less critical AS and without cardiac morbidity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model illustrated the benefit of surgical treatment over conservative treatment in 16 different profiles of elderly patients with severe AS. These findings may provide support for clinical decision making in individuals within this patient group.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, P.O. Box 22660, 1100 DD Amsterdam, The Netherlands. b.j.bouma@amc.uva.nl
authors.forename: Berto J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Bouma
authors.forename: Renee B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: van den Brink
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Zwinderman
authors.forename: Emile C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Cheriex
authors.forename: Hans H
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Hamer
authors.forename: Kong I
authors.initials: KI
authors.lastname: Lie
authors.forename: Jan G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Tijssen
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery* / Q000628:therapy; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / Q000009:adverse effects; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate