title: Incorporating Monte Carlo analysis into multimedia environmental fate models.
abstract: We have incorporated a Monte Carlo module into a steady state nonequilibrium level III fugacity model in order to account for variability in degradation half-lives and observe the effects that this variability has on the model outputs. This method leads to a distribution of important output parameters such as the overall persistence time, which can be used in decision-making processes or risk assessment. For herbicides such as atrazine, where the emission rate primarily is to the soil compartment, it is shown that the main contribution to the variability in overall persistence time is the soil degradation half-life.
authors.affiliation: Syracuse Research Corporation, 301 Plainfield Road Suite 350, Syracuse, New York 13212, USA. citra@syrres.com
authors.forename: Mario J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Citra
mesh_terms: D001272:Atmosphere; D001280:Atrazine / Q000032:analysis; D001673:Biodegradation, Environmental; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D005544:Forecasting; D019015:Geologic Sediments; D006207:Half-Life; D006540:Herbicides / Q000032:analysis; D007700:Kinetics; D008954:Models, Biological; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012989:Soil Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D014873:Water Pollutants / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D006540:Herbicides; D012989:Soil Pollutants; D014873:Water Pollutants; D001280:Atrazine