title: Mapping the antigenic and genetic evolution of influenza virus.
abstract: The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. dsmith@zoo.cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: Derek J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Alan S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Lapedes
authors.forename: Jan C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: de Jong
authors.forename: Theo M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Bestebroer
authors.forename: Guus F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Rimmelzwaan
authors.forename: Albert D M E
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Osterhaus
authors.forename: Ron A M
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Fouchier
mesh_terms: D019943:Amino Acid Substitution; D000940:Antigenic Variation; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D005814:Genes, Viral; D040961:Genetic Drift; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006385:Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests; D006389:Hemagglutinins, Viral / Q000737:chemistry / Q000235:genetics / Q000276:immunology; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000235:genetics* / Q000276:immunology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D008969:Molecular Sequence Data; D016297:Mutagenesis, Site-Directed; D009154:Mutation; D012621:Seasons; D014773:Virology / Q000379:methods
chemical_list: D006389:Hemagglutinins, Viral