[Evaluation of predictive effect of some health-related indices on deaths among ageing residents through a 8-years' follow-up study in Beijing].
OBJECTIVE
To study the predictive effects of some health status indicators to deaths in the elderly population.


METHODS
In 1992, a cohort of 3257 people older than 55 years old was formed from Beijing urban and suburb area. Demographic and information of activity of daily living (ADL), self-rated health (SRH), chronic diseases history and other related variables were collected at baseline survey in 1992. MMSE and CES-D were studied in 2101 on 3257 elderly people. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 1994, 1997 and 2000, to find that a total number of or= 75), resident place (suburb) and education level (illiteracy). The functional disability, poor self-rated health status, history of chronic diseases and abnormal cognition function were the major predictors of deaths. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that after adjustment for sex, age, residential place, education level and history of chronic diseases, functional disability, poor self-rated health status and abnormal cognition function remained as significant independent predictors to death.


CONCLUSIONS
Functional disability, poor self-rated health status and abnormal cognition function were the most valuable indicators of death. Not only they had joined predictive effects to death, but also remained relatively independent. They had important value in the evaluation on healthy prognosis and the life quality of the elderly.
Wu
Xiao-guang
XG
Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital University of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100053, China.
Tang
Zhe
Z
Fang
Xiang-hua
XH
Liu
Hong-jun
HJ
Diao
Li-jun
LJ
Xiang
Man-jun
MJ
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D002423:Cause of Death; D002681:China; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006304:Health Status; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012737:Sex Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires / Q000592:standards; D013997:Time Factors