title: Mortality impact of AIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To measure the impact of HIV on mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective review of burials at three cemeteries, 1987-2001 and a prospective surveillance of burials at all (n = 70) cemeteries, February-May, 2001.
  
  
  METHODS
  The age, sex, and date of burial were recorded; in the absence of denominators, we compared the ratio of deaths of persons 25-49 versus 5-14 years of age per calendar year, using logistic regression, adjusting for sex and site. The age- and sex-specific mortality were calculated and compared with pre-HIV mortality in 1984.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 17,519 deaths, retrospectively reviewed, complete data were available for 6342 (47%) females and 7269 (53%) males. During 1987-2001, the '25-49' versus '5-14' group all-cause mortality ratio increased by 8.5% per calendar year (P < 0.05). A total of 5101 deaths were recorded in the prospective surveillance. Crude mortality rates were 9.5/1000 per year (men) and 7.1/1000 per year (women). In comparison with 1984, 5.0-times as many men and 5.3-times as many women died in the age group 35-39 years. Attributing the increase in mortality in ages 15-60 to HIV in the period 1984-2001, Ethiopian men and women have a probability of 18.8 and 17.8%, respectively, of dying of HIV before age 60.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Burials increased significantly among the '25-49', versus the '5-14' group, during the period 1987-2001. This trend, and a five-times higher mortality in 2001 than in 1984 in those aged 35-39 years demonstrate a severe impact of HIV on mortality. Continuing surveillance of burials is recommended.
authors.affiliation: Ethio-Netherlands AIDS Research Project, Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute, Box 1242, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
authors.forename: Eduard J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Sanders
authors.forename: Tekebash
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Araya
authors.forename: Derege
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kebede
authors.forename: Ab J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Schaap
authors.forename: Nico D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Nagelkerke
authors.forename: Roel A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Coutinho
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005002:Ethiopia / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005655:Funeral Rites; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D017678:Sex Distribution