title: Size of outbreaks near the epidemic threshold.
abstract: The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n(*) scales as N(2/3) with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size [n]scales as N(1/3). Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t(*) approximately N(1/3) and [t] approximately ln N, respectively.
authors.affiliation: Theoretical Division and Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA. ebn@lanl.gov
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ben-Naim
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Krapivsky
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density