title: A predictive model for survival after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) has seen a steady increase in the application of technology and techniques since the introduction of closed cardiac massage in 1960. Despite this progress, there has not been a demonstrated improvement in survival rates after in-hospital cardiac arrest over the last 40 years. Identification of prognostic factors associated with survival after a resuscitation attempt can help physician decisions and patients' end-of-life choices in a pre-arrest situation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using an Utstein-based template we analyzed 219 consecutive adult attempted resuscitations in a large urban teaching hospital over a 3-year period. The main outcome measures were survival to discharge, 1 and 3 months. Backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to select baseline variables that predict survival at discharge, 1 and 3 months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Survival rates at discharge, 1 and 3 months were 15.1, 13.3, and 11.5%. Meaningful neurological status (cerebral performance score of 1) at discharge was achieved in 61% of survivors. Independent predictors of survival were: higher body-mass index (BMI), presence of chronic renal insufficiency (CRI), respiratory arrest, ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF) as initial rhythm and arrest early during the hospital stay. A risk model based on these variables demonstrated a significant fit between predicted and observed survival at discharge with goodness of fit test P-value of 0.87.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Survival after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest is poor and can be estimated by using clinical variables. If validated in a large prospective trial, this score could help physicians in attempting resuscitation, patients and families in making end-of-life decisions and hospitals in resource allocation.
authors.affiliation: Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center, 836 W. Wellington Avenue, Chicago, IL 60657, USA.
authors.forename: Sorin C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Danciu
authors.forename: Liviu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: Maziyar Mir
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Hosseini
authors.forename: Lamia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ibrahim
authors.forename: Bryan W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Coyle
authors.forename: Richard F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Kehoe
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D016887:Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation; D005260:Female; D006323:Heart Arrest / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D016019:Survival Analysis