title: Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe.
abstract: A set of six regional climate model experiments is investigated for future changes in daily temperature and precipitation in Europe. Changes in the probability distributions for these variables are studied. It is found that the asymmetry of these distributions change differently depending on location and season. Large summertime changes in extremely high temperatures in central, eastern and southern Europe are followed by higher than average temperature increases on warm days in general. Likewise, temperatures on cold days increase much more than the average temperature increase during winter in eastern and northern Europe. A comparison with historical data on wintertime temperature shows that the model simulated and observed daily variability are similar. In particular, the much stronger increase in temperatures on cold days, compared to the average temperature increase as observed in warm compared to cold historical periods, is simulated also by the model. The contribution from heavy precipitation events is simulated to increase over most parts of Europe in all seasons.
authors.affiliation: Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping. Erik.kjellstrom@smhi.se
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kjellström
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005060:Europe; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature