Size of outbreaks near the epidemic threshold.
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n(*) scales as N(2/3) with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size [n]scales as N(1/3). Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t(*) approximately N(1/3) and [t] approximately ln N, respectively.
Ben-Naim
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Theoretical Division and Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA. ebn@lanl.gov
Krapivsky
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PL
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density