title: [Geostatistical modeling of Ascaris lumbricoides infection].
abstract: The following study intends to model the spatial distribution of ascariasis, through the use of geoprocessing and geostatistic analysis. The database used in the study was taken from the PAISQUA project, including a coproparasitologic and domiciliary survey, conducted in 19 selected census tracts of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, randomly selecting a group of 1,550 children aged 1 to 9 years old plotting them in their respective domicile's centroids. Risk maps of Ascaris lumbricoides were generated by indicator kriging. The estimated and observed values from the cross-validation were compared using a ROC curve. An isotropic spherical semivariogram model with a range of 30m and nugget effect of 50% was employed in ordinary indicator kriging to create a map of probability of A. lumbricoides infection. The area under the ROC curve indicated a significant global accuracy. The occurrence of disease could be estimated in the study area, and a risk map was elaborated through the use ordinary kriging. The spatial statistics analysis has proven itself adequate for predicting the occurrence of ascariasis, unrestricted to the regions political boundaries.
authors.affiliation: Núcleo de Estudos de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
authors.forename: Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond
authors.initials: Bde P
authors.lastname: Fortes
authors.forename: Luis Iván
authors.initials: LI
authors.lastname: Ortiz Valencia
authors.forename: Simone do Vale
authors.initials: Sdo V
authors.lastname: Ribeiro
authors.forename: Roberto de Andrade
authors.initials: Rde A
authors.lastname: Medronho
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001196:Ascariasis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017164:Ascaris lumbricoides; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D015995:Prevalence; D012372:ROC Curve; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors