Predictive validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch sample of treated sex offenders.
In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.
de Vogel
Vivienne
V
Dr. Henri van der Hoeven Kliniek, Utrecht, The Netherlands. vdevogel@hoevenstichting.nl
de Ruiter
Corine
C
van Beek
Daan
D
Mead
Gwen
G
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000295:instrumentation* / Q000379:methods; D006778:Hospitals, Psychiatric; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011336:Probability; D011902:Rape / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*