Perceptions of a fluid consensus: uniqueness bias, false consensus, false polarization, and pluralistic ignorance in a water conservation crisis.
A 5-day field study (N = 415) during and right after a shower ban demonstrated multifaceted social projection and the tendency to draw personality inferences from simple behavior in a time of drastic consensus change. Bathers thought showering was more prevalent than did non-bathers (false consensus) and respondents consistently underestimated the prevalence of the desirable and common behavior--be it not showering during the shower ban or showering after the ban (uniqueness bias). Participants thought that bathers and non-bathers during the ban differed greatly in their general concern for the community, but self-reports demonstrated that this gap was illusory (false polarization). Finally, bathers thought other bathers cared less than they did, whereas non-bathers thought other non-bathers cared more than they did (pluralistic ignorance). The study captures the many biases at work in social perception in a time of social change.
Monin
Benoît
B
Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. monin@stanford.edu
Norton
Michael I
MI
D001494:Baths / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015982:Bias; D032921:Consensus; D003299:Cooperative Behavior; D004326:Drinking; D006801:Humans; D013240:Stereotyping; D014881:Water Supply