Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. II. Monte Carlo analysis.
A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.
Department of Physical Geography, The Netherlands Centre for Geo-ecology, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands. m.vanderperk@geog.uu.nl
Marcel
M
Van Der Perk
Jiske
J
Burema
Hildegarde
H
Vandenhove
François
F
Goor
Sergei
S
Timofeyev
D001674:Bioelectric Energy Sources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018533:Biomass; D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D017745:Incineration; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D002094:Republic of Belarus; D012426:Russia; D032108:Salix / Q000254:growth & development*; D014455:Ukraine
D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes