Transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum.
Recent models of malaria have been developed by Gupta and her co-workers. A frequent assumption used to illustrate these models is that levels of malaria are controlled by lifelong strain-specific immunity. In this article, Allan Saul examines the predictions this model makes about the equilibrium values of parasite prevalence and the dynamics of an epidemic following the introduction of a new strain. He reaches the conclusion that the stability of malaria makes long-term strain-specific immunity highly improbable, thus rendering models requiring lifelong strain-specific immunity unlikely to be of relevance in most epidemiological contexts.
Saul
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Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland 4029, Australia. allanS@qimr.edu.au