The applicability of a computer model for predicting head injury incurred during actual motor vehicle collisions.
BACKGROUND
Head injury is a significant cause of both morbidity and mortality. Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are the most common source of head injury in the United States. No studies have conclusively determined the applicability of computer models for accurate prediction of head injuries sustained in actual MVCs. This study sought to determine the applicability of such models for predicting head injuries sustained by MVC occupants.


METHODS
The Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database was queried for restrained drivers who sustained a head injury. These collisions were modeled using occupant dynamic modeling (MADYMO) software, and head injury scores were generated. The computer-generated head injury scores then were evaluated with respect to the actual head injuries sustained by the occupants to determine the applicability of MADYMO computer modeling for predicting head injury.


RESULTS
Five occupants meeting the selection criteria for the study were selected from the CIREN database. The head injury scores generated by MADYMO were lower than expected given the actual injuries sustained. In only one case did the computer analysis predict a head injury of a severity similar to that actually sustained by the occupant.


CONCLUSIONS
Although computer modeling accurately simulates experimental crash tests, it may not be applicable for predicting head injury in actual MVCs. Many complicating factors surrounding actual MVCs make accurate computer modeling difficult. Future modeling efforts should consider variables such as age of the occupant and should account for a wider variety of crash scenarios.
Section of Trauma, Burns, and Surgical Critical Care, Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, the Mercedes-Benz CIREN Center, and the Center for Injury Sciences, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama 35294-0016, USA. Stephan.Moran@ccc.uab.edu
Stephan G
SG
Moran
Jason S
JS
Key
Gerald
G
McGwin
Jason W
JW
Keeley
James S
JS
Davidson
Loring W
LW
Rue
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006259:Craniocerebral Trauma / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology