Transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum.
Recent models of malaria have been developed by Gupta and her co-workers. A frequent assumption used to illustrate these models is that levels of malaria are controlled by lifelong strain-specific immunity. In this article, Allan Saul examines the predictions this model makes about the equilibrium values of parasite prevalence and the dynamics of an epidemic following the introduction of a new strain. He reaches the conclusion that the stability of malaria makes long-term strain-specific immunity highly improbable, thus rendering models requiring lifelong strain-specific immunity unlikely to be of relevance in most epidemiological contexts.
Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland 4029, Australia. allanS@qimr.edu.au
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