Testing the accuracy of demographic estimates in countries with generalized epidemics.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the accuracy of demographic estimates that include the effects of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality.


METHODS
To compare estimates of demographic indicators based on UNAIDS/WHO estimates and projections with newly available estimates based on cohort studies, hospital records, national surveys and other sources of data.


METHODS
New information has become available recently from a number of sites in Africa on the ratio of mortality among the HIV-positive and HIV-negative population, the proportion of all adult deaths attributable to AIDS, and the number of orphans. These data are compared with the same indicators calculated from UNAIDS/WHO estimates to assess the accuracy of those estimates.


RESULTS
Differences between demographic indicators based on UNAIDS/WHO estimates and study-based estimates are generally within the uncertainty range of the UNAIDS/WHO figures.


CONCLUSIONS
Demographic estimates based on surveillance data and demographic models are close enough to study-based estimates to be useful for advocacy and medium-term planning. However, significant differences do exist that should be taken into account for short-term planning.
Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA. j.stover@tfgi.com
John
J
Stover
Peter D
PD
Ghys
Neff
N
Walker
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate; D014481:United States