Estimating time and size of bioterror attack.
In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.
Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8200, USA.
Johan
J
Walden
Edward H
EH
Kaplan
D000881:Anthrax / Q000453:epidemiology*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D023482:Bioterrorism; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D013997:Time Factors