[Excess mortality by diarrhea simultaneous to a cholera epidemic in Northeastern Brazil].
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate excess mortality due to infectious diarrhea without etiological diagnosis, occurring simultaneously to Vibrio cholerae circulation.


METHODS
Statistical modeling was applied to a time series of deaths ascribed to "poorly defined intestinal infections" (International Classification of Diseases -- ICD-9) and "presumably infectious diarrhea and gastroenteritis" (ICD-10), between 1980 and 1998 in the Northeast region of Brazil. The prediction of expected values was obtained after a discontinuity point. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed figures and those estimated by the model.


RESULTS
Between 1992 and 1994, only 19.3% of deaths by cholera were actually notified. In 1993, the year in which the epidemic reached its peak in the area, our modeling estimated underregistration at 82.2%.


CONCLUSIONS
Results indicate substantial underregistration of cholera mortality during the epidemic in Northeastern Brazil.
Fundação Nacional de Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Curitiba, PR, Brazil. moacir.gerolomo@saude.gov.br
Moacir
M
Gerolomo
Maria Lúcia Fernandes
ML
Penna
D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002771:Cholera / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016347:Medical Records Systems, Computerized; D014734:Vibrio cholerae