title: [Prediction of outcome in ST elevation myocardial infarction by the extent of ST segment deviation recovery. Which method is best?].
abstract: Simple and rapid measures are needed for timely assessment of the quality of reperfusion therapy early after fibrinolysis in acute STEMI. Sum ST segment elevation resolution (sum STR) categorized into the three groups of low risk (complete ST resolution), medium risk (partial ST resolution), and high risk (no ST resolution) has become an established method to predict infarct size, left ventricular function, epicardial vessel patency, and mortality. However, measurement of the sum of ST elevation from all leads of repeated ECG's is time-consuming. For routine practice more simple measures are needed. This report summarizes recent findings on direct comparisons between different modes of evaluation of ST segment deviation recovery employed for risk stratification in large-scale mortality trials. With respect to predictive accuracy combined with simplicity, two methods were superior to the conventional model of sum STR: 1) ST segment deviation resolution in only the one ECG lead showing the maximal deviation (single lead STR), and 2) the existing ST segment deviation in the single ECG lead of maximum deviation present 90 or 180 min after start of fibrinolysis (max STE). In multivariate analyses the ST segment deviation recovery models including sum STR were significant independent predictors of short- and long-term mortality. In receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting mortality the analysis of single lead STR and max STE performed better than sum STR. After categorization into risk groups patients are best classified by max STE. With an ECG recorded at 90 min in 2719 patients, the proportion of patients of sum STR, single lead STR, and max STE were 40, 34, and 43% in the low risk groups, and 24, 31, and 25% in the high risk groups. Cardiac mortality rates at 30 days were 2.0, 1.2, and 1.0% in low risk versus 9.6, 10.3, and 12.8% in the high risk groups, respectively. Long-term mortality with a followup of 5 years was best predicted by max STE risk groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Single lead STR and max STE are very simple, inexpensive, non-invasive, and highly reliable measures which provide very strong early prognostic information. The relationship between degree of ST segment deviation recovery and subsequent mortality is remarkably consistent. Both methods perform better than sum STR in predicting mortality. They can be used for very early risk stratification and can form a basis for an individual treatment of patients after fibrinolysis for STEMI within 6 hours of symptom onset. Of the two methods max STE is even simpler to use and has better accuracy in predicting outcome.
authors.affiliation: Frankenklinik, Bad Neustadt/Saale, Germany.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Schröder
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Zeymer
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wegschneider
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schröder
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D015912:Thrombolytic Therapy; D013997:Time Factors