title: The collider principle in causal reasoning: why the Monty Hall dilemma is so hard.
abstract: The authors tested the thesis that people find the Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) hard because they fail to understand the implications of its causal structure, a collider structure in which 2 independent causal factors influence a single outcome. In 4 experiments, participants performed better in versions of the MHD involving competition, which emphasizes causality. This manipulation resulted in more correct responses to questions about the process in the MHD and a counterfactual that changed its causal structure. Correct responses to these questions were associated with solving the MHD regardless of condition. In addition, training on the collider principle transferred to a standard version of the MHD. The MHD taps a deeper question: When is knowing about one thing informative about another?
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1117, USA. burnsbr@msu.edu
authors.forename: Bruce D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Burns
authors.forename: Mareike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wieth
mesh_terms: D015984:Causality; D002755:Choice Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008128:Logic; D008824:Michigan; D011336:Probability; D011340:Problem Solving