Measuring performance in health care: case-mix adjustment by boosted decision trees.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the suitability of boosted decision trees for the case-mix adjustment involved in comparing the performance of various health care entities.


METHODS
First, we present logistic regression, decision trees, and boosted decision trees in a unified framework. Second, we study in detail their application for two common performance indicators, the mortality rate in intensive care and the rate of potentially avoidable hospital readmissions.


RESULTS
For both examples the technique of boosting decision trees outperformed standard prognostic models, in particular linear logistic regression models, with regard to predictive power. On the other hand, boosting decision trees was computationally demanding and the resulting models were rather complex and needed additional tools for interpretation.


CONCLUSIONS
Boosting decision trees represents a powerful tool for case-mix adjustment in health care performance measurement. Depending on the specific priorities set in each context, the gain in predictive power might compensate for the inconvenience in the use of boosted decision trees.
Neumann
Anke
A
Assistance Publique--Hôpitaux de Paris, Direction de la Politique Médicale, 3 Av Victoria, F-75184 Paris Cedex 04, France. anke.neumann@sap.ap-hop-paris.fr
Holstein
Josiane
J
Le Gall
Jean-Roger
JR
Lepage
Eric
E
D003663:Decision Trees; D003953:Diagnosis-Related Groups; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016015:Logistic Models; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D010359:Patient Readmission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data