title: Continuity of binge and harmful drinking from late adolescence to early adulthood.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To test the hypothesis that late adolescent drinking behavior (ages 17-20) is associated with harmful and binge drinking in early adulthood (ages 30-31).
  
  
  METHODS
  We used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a nationally representative longitudinal data set. We used harmful and binge drinking at ages 17 to 20 to predict harmful and binge drinking at ages 30 to 31, stratifying for gender and controlling for confounders.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data were available on harmful drinking at both the adolescent and the early adult age period for 3790 individuals and on binge drinking for 2387 individuals. Harmful drinking during adolescence was significantly associated with harmful drinking at ages 30 to 31 for men only. Among male adolescents, 14% of harmful drinkers continued harmful drinking at ages 30 to 31, compared with 4% of nonharmful drinkers who became harmful drinkers. In Poisson regression models, binge drinking during adolescence was associated with binge drinking at ages 30 to 31 for both men and women, generating relative risks of 2.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.8-3.0) and 3.0 (95% confidence interval: 2.4-4.8), respectively. Half of binge-drinking male adolescents and one third of binge-drinking female adolescents engaged in binge drinking into early adulthood, compared with 19% for non-binge-drinking male adolescents and 8% of non-binge-drinking female adolescents.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Problem drinking during adolescence is associated with problem drinking in early adulthood. Efforts to prevent and treat adolescent problem drinking could have an impact on the progression of alcohol-related disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Child Health Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115-8160, USA. cmccarty@u.washington.edu
authors.forename: Carolyn A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: McCarty
authors.forename: Beth E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Ebel
authors.forename: Michelle M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Garrison
authors.forename: David L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: DiGiuseppe
authors.forename: Dimitri A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Christakis
authors.forename: Frederick P
authors.initials: FP
authors.lastname: Rivara
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology; D000435:Alcoholic Intoxication / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology